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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 540 ✭✭✭PhoneMain


    And fair play to him for getting that niche and I'm sure he's making plenty of money from media appearances. But I guarantee you noone in NPHET, the HSE, hospital consulants, the ICGP, the RCPI, NIAC are taking 1 bit of notice of what he's saying. I've been at loads of webinars about Covid and I've never heard his name mentioned once.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,901 ✭✭✭Marty Bird


    I believe by adding more sections of society to the pass, when the boosters are rolled out it’s just coercion so more have to take the next dose so passes will be revoked.

    🌞6.02kWp⚡️3.01kWp South/East⚡️3.01kWp West



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,651 ✭✭✭walus


    That is also what I think is going on. Coercion. Even simple statistics suggests that this will not make a significant impact in terms of number of cases and hospitalisations.

    Nothing has changed. Same old, same old.

    ”Where’s the revolution? Come on, people you’re letting me down!”



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    He also mentions our far higher vaccination rates.



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    As others have suggested there will really not be the same urgency with boosters and inevitably that means a a lower uptake. Most of the data on boosters is vested interests saying they are great. Any other groups would be unlikely to be approved until the Spring.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,962 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    If Martin told me it was sunny outside I'd bring an umbrella.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,210 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    The window of the vaccines slowing transmission is really quite small. Eventually the proportion of fully vaccinated cases and hospitalisations grows until they are the majority. For example, Scotland, the 72% vaccinated make up 88% of cases and 77% of hospitalisations. This is what happens everywhere. Same in the rest of the UK. why would ireland be any different in the end?



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    It is at least 6 months, what would you define a small window as? Will be interesting to see what effect the booster has on that window (e.g. does the waning reduce at a slower rate due to repeatedly activating the immune system).

    Do remember that the waning will be very similar to "natural infection" as it's a function of the immune system, not the vaccine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Simple statistics show that the unvaccinated are of 12 or more times greater likelihood of occupying a hospital bed. That's what the certs are for. When that value is 1-2x then certs aren't making a difference.



  • Registered Users Posts: 533 ✭✭✭Mr rebel


    and that’s why I’ve been outraged!

    The fact they are even looking at introducing this 2G+ which means vaccine cert and a negative PCR test on top of that for entry to places. It is absolutely ridiculous and hopefully doesn’t be actually enforced.

    The fact that beyond very few articles in German there isn’t much mention of it on a Google search gives me hope it won’t take off at all as surely it would be massive international news.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,973 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    Tbh, you'd have to wonder with the unvaccinated going into ICU, how many of them are unvaccinated cos they can't be due to health reasons or doctors have given them advice not to get the vaccine, cos those are people who when they get covid will definitely end up in ICU, so the stats might be getting very skewed as a result.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,901 ✭✭✭Marty Bird


    I really can’t see that happening it’s get the next dose and passes revoked, I think this outcome is staring people in the face and they refuse to see it, I hope I’m wrong, we shall see.

    🌞6.02kWp⚡️3.01kWp South/East⚡️3.01kWp West



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,973 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    I'd be of the same thought, and unless people go no, we'll be on a 4th dose by this time next year I'd say.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    There's been nothing to say that those unvaccinated in ICU are the willfully unvaccinated. The only people who can't get a vaccine are those with specific allergies which would be a very small number of people, vulnerable and at risk people have been able to get vaccinated (and have a very high take up), this also shows in the ages of those in ICU with the vaccinated trending older and unvaccinated trending younger.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    The HPSC reports state that immunocompromised people are deemed unvaccinated until theyve had a full course of 3 doses I believe - and these people are more likely to get hospitalised anyways, so could be a significant factor. Hard to tell because the figures they give aren't very clear.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,973 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    Ya, I think we're just missing some data around the ICU unvaccinated and vaccinated numbers. We had heard of people back when the vaccinations were happening who had got 1 dose and had a severe reaction and couldn't get another, or people who had doctors tell them not to get it as the potential reaction could be terrible for them, so whilst that's a probably a subset of the unvaccinated anyway, even if that's 2/3% of the population, it could be mostly them going into ICU. I think we need more data to actually make an accurate assessment tbh, and we're not being given that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 784 ✭✭✭daydorunrun


    I know one person in ICU that would be classed as unvaccinated because they only have one jab- had a terrible reaction to the first and didn't get the second.

    He has been in and out of hospital since and is now in ICU. He was sick before the first jab mind you so I'm not blaming the jab even though it didn't do him any favours.

    Point is the percentages and stats of covid never tell the full story. This hasn't been a health emergency on an individual level for a long time it is a healthcare emergency as our hospitals are the ones that are most vulnerable.

    “You tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.” Homer.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It must be the 80+ who are too delicate to get the vaccination that are making up the numbers.

    Otherwise the papers would be full of stories of the anti-vax unvaxxed coming out of ICU recanting and saying how wrong they were. Or even better still, from a vax-publicity point of view, not coming out of ICU and dying because they weren’t vaxxed. These stories are few and far between...



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,804 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    That's not how I read it. They have no info on people admitted to ICU that may have had a third jab. So a breakthrough infection would be 2 weeks after their third dose. However as they don't have that information, they are being classed as a breakthrough infection 2 weeks after their second jab.

    You're assuming they are being omitted from the reports, they are not. At the very least they would be classed as having at least 1 jab (meaning not fully vaccinated and not technically a breakthrough infection as per their definition)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭bloopy


    To be fair, the Friday figures do differentiate between no dose and at least one dose.

    I would like to see a clearer break down of underlying conditions, age, etc of the no dose admissions like they have for the vaccinated admissions.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    They're coming out in other countries but that (rightly) stays entirely private in Ireland (and most European countries). The only one I remember was the Donegal councillor who was "freed" returned and then died because the rescuers broadcast it all live.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    They give breakdowns of all ICU admissions by age and underlying condition in a separate report.

    As you'd expect, the vast majority have underlying conditions (80%)




  • Registered Users Posts: 729 ✭✭✭SupplyandDemandZone


    Can they not just the boosters into arms of those vulnerable and older people who want it and just let the rest live ffs. It's getting very annoying at this stage as all i'm hearing of is events and Xmas gatherings being cancelled this is no good for everyone's mental health or obviously the hospitality trade.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Its not totally clear really:

    Between April 1st and November 6 th 2021:

    • 541 persons (aged 15 + years) were reported to the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) as admitted to ICU with confirmed COVID-19 infection.

    • 349/541 (65%) cases reported as not having received a COVID-19 vaccine or were not registered as vaccinated on Ireland’s national COVID-19 immunisation system (COVAX).

    • 192/541 (35%) cases were reported as having received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine prior to admission to ICU.

    • 147/541 (27%) cases were vaccine breakthrough infections (see technical note) 


    ...


    2. Definition of COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infection for surveillance purposes For the purposes of this report, the Health Protection Surveillance Centre has defined a COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infection as a laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in a person ≥14 days after they have completed both doses of a 2-dose regimen or 1 dose of a 1-dose regimen. However, it is recognised that people with immunosuppression (as per NIAC guidance) will require an additional dose as part of their primary course of vaccination. HPSC COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infection reports do not currently include data on additional COVID-19 doses (for those immunocompromised or those receiving booster doses). 

    Unclear whether COVAX registers you as "vaccinated" if you are immunocompromised and havent completed your primary course of vaccination.

    Also strange how many people got admitted to ICU with only 1 dose (35%) - given that most people only have a very brief period of time with 1 dose, its very unusual that 35% of all admissions from april to november had 1 dose, statistically you would not expect that. - Unless the "at least 1 dose" are the immunocompromised who havent gotten a 3rd dose.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    He wouldn’t be able to if he tried.

    There is something unique to Austrian-born, Central European leaders with peculiar facial hair... That have that certain « je ne sais quoi » talent that enables them to mobilise their population by demonising an « unclean » minority and convince the majority that these people are the source of all their problems. They start off with a few « minor » restrictions - that no reasonable person could disagree with - but slowly, slowly they turn up the temperature. Schallenberg has a long way to before he catches up with the GOAT, but he’s moving in the right direction.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,069 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    You might need to read that again. It does not say that 35% of those in ICU received just one dose of a two dose regimen.

    It notes that 65% were unvaccinated and makes clear that the other 35% are defined as breakthrough infections "in a person 14 days after they have completed both doses of a 2 dose regimen or 1 dose of a one dose regimen" (Johnson & Johnson vaccine)



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,294 ✭✭✭facehugger99


    When the hysteria dies down in a few years I firmly believe the actual truth will emerge of an absolute con-job that's been pulled on hospital-numbers. I know people who work in hospitals and there are so many people getting it while in there for something else. Same with the death-figures- seriously ill and very old people being brought into hospital, getting covid and then being recorded as a Covid death.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,651 ✭✭✭walus


    I’m not sure if you realise but it is not the certs or vaccines for that matter that are driving the likelihood of someone ending up in a hospital. It is the health condition and age that have the biggest impact on that. So if we take this logic of the likelihood to end up in a hospital sick with covid it is the old and vulnerable for whom these restrictions should be put in place, irrespectively of whether they are vaccinated or not. Especially with vaccines waning quickly as it happens to be the case. Vaccines were touted to be a silver bullet 12 months ago. Sadly they are nothing of the sort. Short term solution for a long term problem.

    ”Where’s the revolution? Come on, people you’re letting me down!”



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,211 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Age is the key determining factor of likelihood to be hospitalised. Over 85s make up just 0.5% of the cases but 11% of the hospitalisations. 75-84 year olds make up just 2.2% of cases but nearly 19% of hospitalisations. 65-74 year olds make up just 6.6% of cases but over 21% of hospitalisations.

    In other words 9% of the overall cases (65+) make up 50% of the hospitalisations.

    CIDR 14 day report_20211112_Website.pdf (hpsc.ie)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,069 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    What do you expect people going no is going to achieve. You do know don`t you that this is a virus where getting a vaccine greatly reduces risk of serious illness and deaths.

    Do you believe that people just going no to the flu vaccine will somehow make the flu go away, or are you expecting this years flu vaccine to give lifetime immunity ?



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