Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

But it doesn't. Those most likely to take up a hospital space are aged 65+ where there is 99% vaccination and all of those have a cert by virtue of the fact they are vaccinated. Again just 9% of cases are in the 65+ but 50% of hospitalisations are in that cohort.

I thought you were outraged because this friend in Austria who you say is fully vaccinated would have to go to the expense of also requiring a negative PCR test on top of that for entry to bars, restaurants etc.

I have seen nothing on the new regulations that says anything like that. In fact pretty much the opposite in that negative PCR or antigen test results are no longer accepted for entry to such establishments and that only a vaccine certificate (which you say your friend has) or proof of recovery from infection will suffice. I really do not see why your fully vaccinated friend has anything to worry about, or for you needing to be outraged on his behalf.

Disregarding age as a factor (and your proposal is to add it as a factor) you are 12x more likely to be in ICU if unvaccinated then if you are vaccinated.

A graph showing age as a factor doesn't change this (and from your graph, you would plan to apply it to 45 years and older?)

Well you can't just discount age seeing as how it's the number 1 factor in severe Covid outcomes. The median and mean age of death from Covid is in the 80s.

From 55+ is where there are proportionately more hospitalisations than cases.

Paul Reid said earlier of the 617 in hospital 60% are vaccinated. We have c.75% of the population vaccinated all in. Where are you getting your 12 times figure from? It doesn't tally at all.

12x is from ICU, it looks about 10x for hospitalisation cases.

But again, you want to add age as a factor and start excluding people based on age from locations that currently require COVID certs (vaccinated or recovered), right now we don't include age for COVID certs so it's purely the vaccinated vs. unvaccinated comparison to use, I'm not sure how simply I can say it anymore.

So double the previous for a vaccine that for the past 5 years hasn`t had an efficacy rating of over 40%, compared to a booster shot with an efficacy of 95.6%. Bit of a no brainer refusing one and availing of the other imo unless the poster I was replying to believes people should refuse both.

Advocating that would leave someone very open to being accused of just being anti vaccines

There are many variables which are correlated with the incidence and severity of Covid 19. The real problem is figuring out what is the causal link between these variables and the disease. This is not easy: for example we know that obesity, Diabetes, and heart disease are important factors. But these are not independent: for example being overweight because of an inappropriate diet can lead to diabetes and /or heart disease. So you need both good data and good statistical tecnhique to figure this out.

In a formal sense it's a bit like the problems faced by economists and econometricians in figuring out what causes certain economic outcomes. So isolating any one variable, whether age, BMI, etc can lead to a very over-simplistic view of what's going on.

And I don't know myself, precisely because of the complications. 😊

No and no

The health minister in the north, after only two or three weeks ago discounting the use of vaccine passes, is now calling for them in some circumstances. The DUP appear to be against this idea so I've no idea if it will get through Stormont.

You still haven't got it, read my post again, it can't be made any simpler.

You want to bring in age as a measure, fine, what is the cut off.

Right now age isn't a measure, so you have to disregard age when calculating, if it's not 1:1 (even including the under 12, remembering that under 18 don't need COVID certs anyway) then unvaccinated are more likely to end up in hospital and use up hospital capacity, that is why there is COVID certs. You either want to supplement that with age data or switch over entirely to age as a measure. Otherwise, I'm unsure what you are trying to argue about.

It's clear you're lost. I've quoted the actual sources and the actual numbers of what's happening right now. It seems you're struggling with the numbers which is fair enough. You still haven't shown how your 8x figure works either (and wasn't it 10x earlier? Semes to be a movable feast 😂).

Let's try it again. 60% of all hospitalisations are vaccinated per the Head of the HSE. 75% of the total population is vaccinated. Please just show where your 8x figure is coming from? If you can't then just say so.

I also love how you say that age isn't a measure when the HPSC are literally tracking cases, hospitalisations and ICU numbers by age daily 😬

You actually want me to do the maths for you?

So, when the numbers were 50/50 (as they were a few days ago), this meant that the rate of vaccinated to unvaccinated adults (92% vs 8%, or 92/8) was 11.5:1, so 11.5 infections could happen in the vaccinated per 1 case of unvaccinated and be hospitalised. If you want to take it as 75% vs. 25% the rate is 3:1 (most don't because we don't have COVID certs for the under 18 and they are very unlikely to go to hospital so in this case age is being taken into account, but anyway).

You can re-do the numbers for 60/40 (hospital cases) and also for 33/66 (ICU) if you want to see the current number of cases being converted to beds/ICU beds but it fluctuates daily, average is about 50/50, I'm not as you're turning into that godzilla lad in asking others to answer basic maths questions for you and will undoubtedly run away when you don't like the answers or move onto another tangential topic. As more unvaccinated get infected, the number should drop (as has happened in the UK where it's about 5:1 for adult comparison but also where they have 98% of adults with antibodies).

If that number isn't 1:1 then certs are reducing pressure on the hospital system. You can then add an age factor to the certs if you wish to reduce the hospital cases even further.

namloc1980 you're probably wasting your time posting actual credited sources and statistics trying to argue with astrofool, he'll just repeatedly post his own wacky theories that have no basis in reality. Hes never able to post a single statistical source to back them up when hes called on them, despite it happening repeatedly in this thread 😂 He just likes uneducated ranting I guess.

It is fascinating how an unvaccinated 20 year, whos at statistically far lower risk of hospitalization than a double vaccinated 70 year old, is subject to restrictions still though. While the latter is free to socialise to their hearts content. It just shows how the government cares far more about optics than actual decisions based on science.

92% of adults vaccinated, but I also showed the all population numbers, most people use the adult pop (as I said because that's where the COVID cert applies). If you're that worried, take away the under 18 hospitalisation cases, it won't effect the numbers. The point of what you're saying has been lost as well, I agree that the COVID could be applied by age as well and have an effect, but that's not a popular choice and not what I would go for. If you're in the "no restrictions" group, there's a different set of questions to be answered beyond vaxxed/unvaxxed chances of being hospitalised.

Have you done the other calculations yet?