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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2021 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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    #62
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,888 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Charts have definitely shifted to cold today on all models for the the final week of November. The coming week will be very mild once again but after next weekend we could be in for a colder spell. Of course alot will change in the models between now and what is over a week away.

    The GFS 12z is fairly cool to cold towards the end but there are other runs even colder than this.

    Untitled Image

    ECM 12z is certainly chilly.

    Untitled Image

    GEM not quite there but has certainly turned cooler than what it has been showing up to yesterday.

    Untitled Image


    I would love to think we could be onto a November flip and an end to the prolonged spell of relatively dry and very mild temperatures, but the charts could easily swing back to mild tomorrow. I would like to see models stick to this colder theme with confidence increasing to a cold trend throughout this week.



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    #63
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,963 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Nice looking charts all right, the Atlantic ridge has been showing to firm up over the last few runs. Often squeezes in more towards Ireland pushing the cold further East will see how it pans out. These charts as they look now would possibly lead to a dusting on Northern Mountains but will take a number of runs to see if the cold takes hold.


    Untitled Image


    ecmwf_T850_eu_fh120-240.gif




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    #64
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,063 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Apart from brief cold skirting the coast to the East and some cooler but not cold temperatures there is utterly bland weather currently forecast for the next few weeks still.



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    #65
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,888 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Yesterdays 12z showed some promise but yeah we're back to the boring runs with yet more high pressure and very little in the way of real cold reaching Ireland. I don't mind the weather being dry, flat and boring throughout the Autumn but by December I would like to see some big changes. We may have to wait till after Christmas/start of January before we will see some actual winter weather. This very mild and relatively dry pattern has been with us for months now, it has to end at some stage. We have one more very mild week to come and the 4th week of November is a bit up in the air right now but could easily end up being fairly bland and dry as well.



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    #66
    Storm 10
    Registered Users Posts: 5,925 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118169653#Comment_118169653

    Any chance of storms Gonzo or is it a bit early for them



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    #67
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,888 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118169869#Comment_118169869

    There is absolutely no sign of storms or typical Atlantic conveyer belt unsettled conditions any time soon.



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    #68
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,888 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The GFS 12z is having a go at a flip into winter during the final week of November. Not sure yet if this is a cold outlier but we will find out soon. High tries to get to Greenland and sends the wind into the north. On this particular run there is snow for Ulster and Leinster.

    Untitled Image

    The other GFS members are still rolling out, currently at the 258 hour mark and many of them are going very cold indeed. Plenty of eye candy to look at over the next hour.



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    #69
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,888 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    ECM 12z on the verge of unleashing the cold with a lovely Greenland High just where you want it. Hopefully tomorrows runs stick with this idea.

    Untitled Image




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    #70
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,963 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    After the mild week to come looking more like colder conditions from Sunday. Models in good agreement this evening. Could be some hard frosts next week and could be seeing the first dusting on high ground in Northern counties . Rainfall amounts low for the time of the year on the last couple of runs.


    ecmwf_z500_mslp_eu_fh120-240 (2).gif


    ecmwf_T850_eu_fh120-240 (1).gif


    gfs_T850_eu_fh120-240.gif


    UW144-7.gif




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    #71
    Donegal Ken
    Registered Users Posts: 427 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118171518#Comment_118171518

    A nice polar low at the end of the month will do nicely if she unleashes.



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    #72
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,063 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Lady on weather said "becoming colder over the weekend"

    Seems likely to be a cool end after a mild first 20 days so won't be a record breaker



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    #73
    Cork2021
    Registered Users Posts: 2,295 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    so any updates today? Need a distraction from my head exploding on the covid forum



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    #74
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,063 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Update is encouraging if you like cold but if you hate heating bills no.

    Will probably go down slowly from the heights of 16c midweek to 10c at the weekend and then single figures the week after. Then who knows ? Some runs have moderate cold of 7c others show colder still of 4 or 5c



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    #75
    Cork2021
    Registered Users Posts: 2,295 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118174776#Comment_118174776

    Like cold and dry, so hopefully that happens



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    #76
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,888 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    We need several more days of model watching to see if all the models reach agreement and to determine if the upcoming cold spell is going to be a dry one or a more unsettled period. The depth of cold has yet to be determined as well as the exact track of where it will happen. Right now the GFS and ECM are going for a cool or cold spell but the GEM is still pumping up warmth from the south or south-west.



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    #77
    PokeHerKing
    Registered Users Posts: 4,334 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    ECH0-240.gif

    Day 10 candie

    Post edited by PokeHerKing on


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    #78
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,888 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    ECM 12z very similar to yesterdays 12z. That's a fairly substantial cold pool.

    Untitled Image
    Untitled Image




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    #79
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,063 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ya but it will be probably be a case of remember what the chart from Tuesday had

    We know by now that every cold spell is moderated by the time it hits us with 6 or 7c and continous cold rain in the Northwest



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    #80
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,771 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The ECM evolution looks too clean, what well could happen is a halfway solution between the GFS and ECM. If that happens it will more likely be cool and dry, than cold and snowy here. Although given sod laws we could end with a Greeland High too far west and we end up in southwesterles by default!

    However a full on Atlantic onslaught for the time being looks unlikely, but for how long given conditions in the stratosphere? Perhaps if we were to get a persistent blocking pattern it might have a positive effect on the strat. M.T must be thinking the window is short given his winter forecast is for a mainly mild first half of Winter



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    #81
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    GFSOPUK12_378_17[1].png
    GFSOPUK12_351_25[1].png

    Hellloooo December! 🤑



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    #82
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,888 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Would be nice to see if the GEM starts to agree with the GFS and ECM but the GEM is stuck at 156 hours for the past several hours.

    All models are in agreement with it turning colder from Sunday with come cooler air but not properly cold. It still remains to be seen what will happen from midweek next week, will we get the high up to Greenland and the low pressure to drop south clearing the UK and Ireland and introducing proper artic air.



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    #83
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,963 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    I will raise that Danno!!


    ECM looking very cold at the end of the run also . Now if that low keeps a similar track with bands of precipitation and that cold airmass then you know what....it is possible that there is snow accumulation's , maybe not much lasting for long low down . Widespread frost or hard frost in places, hail showers and thunderstorm potential, ha!

    But also possible ,as said above, could get moderated down quite a bit. Will see. A lot more interesting then the blandness of late though.


    UKMO very much on the colder weather also.


    modez_20211124_1200_animation.gif


    modez_20211124_1200_animation (1).gif


    modez_20211125_0000_animation.gif




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    #84
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,888 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Just for fun this is the coldest run I've seen with -15C Uppers sinking south across Ireland. This is very unlikely to verify but one can wish.

    Untitled Image
    Untitled Image




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    #85
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,888 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    The GEM failed to go past 156 hours on Wetterzentrale but it's working on other websites.

    The GEM 12z not as cold as the ECM or GFS but does get in some low level cold.

    Untitled Image
    Untitled Image

    Wouldn't take much for this to go as cold as the other models.



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    #86
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,951 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    This place is very quiet last few days!

    Some extraordinary charts on offer and yet some of the above commentary 're cool and dry'

    Its like as if the charts are showing a 24hour toppler. If the ecm and gfs don't excite he may need a new hobby because for Ireland it doesn't get any better!!

    Now fair enough it may not happen (I think it will) but for heaven's sake appreciate how much potential



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    #87
    mcburns07
    Registered Users Posts: 2,055 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    Very interesting to follow but probably a bit too far out yet to get overly excited about?



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    #88
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 403 ✭✭Reversal


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118178417#Comment_118178417

    It might have something to do with a this scenario of a 2010 repeat turning up in the models every November right around this date every year since 2016. It has literally been every November without fail.


    Hopefully this is the year.



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    #89
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,190 ✭✭✭pad199207


    All very lovely to look at there’s no doubt about it that’s for sure.

    Even though it’s nearly 10 years ago now but 2012 scars still firmly in place with that phantom easterly. Christ when I think of it now 😰

    But to be fair every winter since then it’s kind of kept me sane.



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    #90
    Donegal Ken
    Registered Users Posts: 427 ✭✭Donegal Ken


    Come the weekend and were still looking at runs like today then there will be a bit of a ramp. Could easily go sideways. Nice to see good strong signals on the major players.



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    #91
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,063 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ya think even the members are sick of predicting mild charts now so theyr just going what the hell let's predict cold to be more seasonal.

    The only thing certain is that it will be 16c in the next couple of days. However from this weekend we may never see that temperature again in 2021.



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