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Will there be another lockdown?

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Comments

  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Yeah, but they're twice last November..

    We'll see what it's like in Jan/Feb..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,541 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Do you believe everything your partner tells you? There are peer reviewed medical journals which publish actual studies saying there is no evidence of increase in risk



    What your partner might be mixing up is a general practice not to give vaccinations in the first trimester.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 911 ✭✭✭DarkJager21


    So the government are yet again ignoring the elephant in the room and making pikachu faces about where the increase in cases is coming from.

    Here's an idea - circuit break the schools until January, remote learning from now until after Xmas. The dog on the street knows that schools are contributing massively to this wave, so instead of driving nightclubbers or pub goers back to house parties with stupid curfews, lets see them tackle the one area they point blank refuse to admit is a problem despite it being a blatantly obvious one.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,541 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    But we were locked down last November. It's not comparable to this November. We've probably increased our contacts tenfold compared to then. (At least)



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I rather she took advice of someone who is a professional in there job. Not something thats written up in a medical journal. As i said in a previous post she had a few miscarriages and she wasnt risking another one



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,541 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Your partner may have taken up the doctor incorrectly. If she already had it, the doctor might have just reasoned that she doesn't need the vaccine. You haven't said when this advice happened, but if it happened recently, could we assume that your partner had already chosen not to get the vaccine despite being offered it? In which case she might also have a bias against it.


    The doctors advice might likely have been strongly towards getting the vaccine if she had not already had Covid



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    92% of adults in the country have been vaccinated. 97% in some regions.

    These are spectacular numbers. Anyone who still thinks the unvaccinated are a problem is a moron. It's an invisible bogeyman.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,156 ✭✭✭opinionated3


    Sky news reporting new data this morning confirming adults with under 16s in the house are most likely to contract the virus. So you're probably right re: the schools.

    But they'll blame it on hospitality and irresponsible adults anyway.. ...



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    My own compassion certainly isn't limitless and other peoples views have been frustrating for me. It makes me see the world in a harsh light though, just creates anger in me towards others. It's not a nice feeling so I try to remind myself that we do the best we can.

    I'm watching this thing called Y The Last Man. It's basically a post apocalyptic story. There are different opinions as to how to survive and who should be in charge. It's obvious to many that the current leader is the best one. Another character thinks differently. She has aligned herself with a person who is extremely Conservative.

    Anyways I'm watching this thinking how can some of them be so blind and bonkers as to think the right leaning individual is better. But they aren't blind or bonkers. For them they really really believe this is the best person and her way is what they need.

    They are all just people wanting to get out of a huge crisis. None of them are monsters. They all have their own inner struggles and stuff going on.

    Obviously the above is fiction but it reminds me of our crisis. What good does fighting with each other do? Sometimes when we grieve our anger becomes misplaced. "All those unvaccinated don't they realise what they are doing" "That person with no mask on going about their day when I've lost so much".

    It's all so pointless.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 83,855 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    M


    The initial 2km restriction from non essential movement from your home seems like a bad dream now as if it never happened it was so obscene.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    People keep saying this but it would only be contributing to the government’s whack-a-mole approach, not dealing with it. We need to stop f**king around with schools. If nothing else, at the very least let the children have their education and their friends and let’s stop dragging them, our most fragile citizens, any further into this dystopian mess.

    We just need to stop f**king about with stuff just to be seen to have taken action — whether it’s schools or some poorly conceived idea about hospitality curfews. The reality we all need to face is that Covid is here forever, vaccines will not prevent transmission, and only by actually facing Covid and accepting the reality that it will spread are we we going to reach a stage (aided massively by the effect of vaccination on severity of illness) where the virus becomes a progressively lesser risk. The old arguments of 2020 are dead — the “let it rip” mantra used to demonise the advocates of a more holistic approach is buried. We are in the era of vaccines and there is nothing for it now but to face reality and stop the can kicking.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Doctors frequently advise patients based on research/studies. I



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,803 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    If they were invisible it'd be less of a problem, kept themselves to themselves, but they aren't or there wouldn't be such disproportionate numbers of them in hospital and ICU.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 911 ✭✭✭DarkJager21


    But we can't keep burying our heads in the sand about schools and the infection rates they are driving - they ARE contributing to it. We keep hearing about "oh education is a priority above everything else", no it is not especially if it means it is directly impacting the rest of us being able to return to some normality. Why do you think this wave picked up pace around the start of September??


    Remote learning is possible and it should at the least be put in place until after Xmas and see what that does to the numbers then. Dismissing them as being part of the problem is completely irresponsible and is only prolonging this even further.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,326 ✭✭✭Scuid Mhór




  • Registered Users Posts: 4,672 ✭✭✭elefant


    How can they be seen not to be a problem, when that 8% of adults are taking up a massively disproportionate amount of hospital capacity? 40% of hospital admissions and over 50% of ICU admissions from 8% of the population is surely a problem.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,517 ✭✭✭shockframe


    "The schools are safe" is the "I don't accept that" of our time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,541 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Or to put it another way, one way to cut almost 50% of ICU admissions would be for for the un-vaccinated free-riders to do their bit to get vaccinated.

    Or we could go back to no pubs or restaurants or schools or barbers or gyms.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 911 ✭✭✭DarkJager21


    The whole thing is a logic blackhole, I don't understand anyone who can trot out the "schools are safe" line with a straight face.

    1) Children are less likely to have symptoms - that's great, it's still a highly infectious virus they can transmit at home. Little Timmy picks it up off his classmate.

    2) Now the child has Covid without symptoms, but he's passed it to the rest of the household. Mam & Dad now go off to work and infect X amount of people in their workplace.

    3) Coworkers now have it, bring it home, their son goes to school, infect X amount in his class and the cycle continues.

    Schools are not safe, they are petri dishes for the continues spread of this and politicians or NPHET stating the opposite repeatedly is not going to change that fact.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,541 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    There is a level at which we can cope and we have to make choices as to what does and does not make the cut. I think most would agree that nightclubs and other similar social events should be lower priority than schools.

    It can be pointed out too that our numbers did not surge to their current level when schools opened but rather when everything else did



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,117 ✭✭✭eggy81


    I think booster uptake will slow significantly from the original vaccine uptake levels. A lot of scepticism creeping in with people in my personal life. Anyone else noticed this trend.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,672 ✭✭✭elefant


    I haven't noticed this. Skepticism about what?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,117 ✭✭✭eggy81


    About the effectiveness of the vaccine. Think another lockdown of any great significance would have a big impact on people’s belief in it. Most people do not educate themselves to the degree the people analysing Covid on these forums do.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Correlation does not equal causation. The majority of people (>50%) in ICU at any given time are elderly patients with underlying conditions and long-term illness. Statistically I would expect a disproportionate number to be unvaccinated.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    We cannot live with Covid if we are taking the view that the most fundamentally normal parts of life, including children being able to go to school and having physical interaction with their friends, are forever subject (at almost a whim) to being targeted for the potential for this virus to spread. If we are talking about heads being in the sand, it’s hard to evade the point that we are fast approaching two years of restrictions . Lockdowns and the draconian curtailment of certain liberties was only meant to be, and only can be, a temporary feature. Even the half-life of freedoms being reinstated but constantly and incessantly threatened by the reality that those things can be stripped away at the drop of the hat, is neither a good nor a sustainable policy. We can’t run an education system on this basis and it is not in the national interest to force our children to play this unending Hokey Cokey in their formative years.

    We need to stop the tinkering and understand that if vaccines aren’t going to stop transmission we need to accept the reality of transmission and find a more sustainable way forward which involves a Living with Covid strategy that actually means living with it — not forever trying to find ways to avoid living with it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 911 ✭✭✭DarkJager21


    We won't be able to move forward in any sense until they stop **** the bed over case numbers and accept that there are going to be deaths. All of the discussion at the moment is about protecting the health service, which wouldn't have be an issue if it wasn't an obscenely bloated, badly managed, badly resourced and not fit for purpose blackhole of funding.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I wonder do those people understand that the significant number is not the rate of infection, it is the rate of admission to hospitals and mortality. Both of which are down due to vaccination. And do they understand that 52% of ICU patients come from the 8% of the population who are unvaccinated? Let’s hope so.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,520 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    Yes, true, I left out some categories. I forgot vaccinated and over-confident and overtrusting of single measures.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,541 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    What is your reasoning here? The vulnerable and elderly were priortised for vaccination yet you expected that even more of them opted not to get it???????????

    Most normal people would conclude that the whole minor "It could very likely kill me if I catch it" might have made them less amenable to be anti-vax



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    Well I wouldn’t disagree with that. I just think that messing about schools leads to the exact same question as all the other restrictions — which is : Then What?

    Eventually we have to relent on the restriction and the spread starts again. It’s an unending game of imposing measures to avoid imposing measures.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,117 ✭✭✭eggy81


    I’d doubt it. Hopefully information about the increased protection a booster gives as it becomes clear will bring them into the fold.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,803 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Curfews, lockdowns and restrictions are on the agenda in Netherlands, Germany, Austria ... some of the best health services in the world... Seems a lot of countries have issues with accepting deaths or letting their health services be over-run.

    We have less ICU capacity, but more people vaccinated. They have more ICU capacity, but less people vaccinated.

    But there is a 'limit' to what can be tolerated from case numbers that feed into hospitalisations.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/germany-pandemic-of-the-unvaccinated-5591550-Nov2021/

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,818 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    Saying schools aren’t a factor in transmission is just a lie.

    There’s an argument that keeping them open despite the inevitable spread is the least worst option, but the Taoiseach is insulting our collective intelligence at the moment.

    The public are not likely to dissent much if they are given sensible and truthful advice. However saying the schools are not a factor puts public support at risk. So does saying one should halve one’s social contacts, regardless of what your baseline is. If you go to mass once a week that should be once a fortnight, but someone going to late bars four times a week can still go twice, if you follow that logic.


    The State’s advice and communication over the last two weeks deserves an E grade.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Considering the salon owner has since tested positive, I hope she didn't transmit it to any of her elderly customers while working on them while unmasked.

    Glad I walked out - and I won't be giving them my custom again.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I am referring to people medically ineligible for the vaccine, or who were advised against it. Organ transplant patients, people undergoing immunotherapy, etc.

    This type of patient makes up the majority of ICU at any given time. Therefore it is not unexpected for a disproportionate number of ICU patients to be unvaccinated. Presenting this number on it's own is not particularly insightful.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,985 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    But the vaccine take-up rate for 65+ is near 100%. The percentage of those admitted to ICU who are 65+ accounts for 28.5% of the total admitted. I'd say the vast majority of them would be fully vaccinated.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,541 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Present your evidence for that assertion.

    Given that the figures present are that 50% are un-vaccinated, it means that 50% are vaccinated. If 1% of those in ICU are un-vaccinated by choice, it means that you cannot have your claimed majority.

    You are simply misrepresenting the fact that vulnerable and compromised people who are vaccinated are relatively more likely to end up in ICU than vaccinated people who are not vulnerable

    It is a very small percentage of people cannot get the vaccine for genuine medical reasons. A tiny proportion compared to the 8% who choose not to get it.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    ICU is not a representative slice of the population.

    What is the vaccine take-up rate for 65+ who are undergoing immunotherapy?

    What is the vaccine take-up rate for 65+ who have received an organ transplant?

    It is nowhere close to 100% for these groups.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Absolutely agree with above - this government and the HSE have been insulting the publics intelligence for quite a while but it's reaching new levels recently. They're talking out of their collective holes, full of inconsistency and waffle.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,325 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    Schools have to be kept open at all costs especially special schools. Children have suffered enough



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 911 ✭✭✭DarkJager21


    Even if that cost is driving perpetual infections and endless restrictions for wider society?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,640 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Well yes.


    You think closing schools will make covid vanish forever?



  • Registered Users Posts: 189 ✭✭choronzonix


    The restrictions are a political choice. You can decide for yourself whether they have actually succeeded up to this point.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,124 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    +1


    Also, those who cannot get the vaccine for medical reasons will more than likely be taking extreme precautions to avoid catching covid, and were likely to be taking extreme precautions before covid just to prevent them catching a cold. They are likely better protected by the need to isolate themselves from others just to stay alive in normal times than any vaccine protection is providing the rest of us.

    Can't really count them in with any unvaccinated/ anti-vax numbers. If there was an unusual surge in numbers of the unvaccinated for medical reasons ending up in ICU then we'd know about it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 911 ✭✭✭DarkJager21


    Well the infections are being driven from somewhere but lets pretend it's the nightclubs and everything other than schools - because Covid doesn't pass the school gates, the students can't get covid or spread covid at home and sitting in a room with 30 other potential spreaders for 6 hours a day is of no risk. Nope not at all, they are completely 100% safe - it's the adult activites that are causing this surely...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 733 ✭✭✭marilynrr


    Ignorance yes! The "facts" about long term data are not available yet. There are also scientists and medical professionals who are worried about these vaccinations.

    It's arrogance for some on the other side who think that they know all of the facts, when they couldn't possibly know all of the facts because the vaccine hasn't been out for long enough!

    Post edited by marilynrr on


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,654 CMod ✭✭✭✭faceman


    I have a theory based on yesterday's announcement. There wont be a lockdown, well not in name anyway. Instead there will be strict conditions on certain sectors which will include capacity and opening hours. The reason for this is so the government can dodge paying out PUP.

    I also reckon its coming 26/27th November too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,208 ✭✭✭✭B.A._Baracus


    Only my two cents.... but from hearing about other countries getting hammered (looking at you germany) and our numbers going up, it's just a matter of time before another lockdown.

    Lot of people like to say "learn to live with covid" - Thing is, lockdowns will be living with covid. Especially this time of the year (getting cold, people Christmas shopping and getting together)

    Only 5 weeks until Christmas. A lot of businesses make most of their money around Christmas. So my forecast (for what it's worth, which is nothing lol) is that a lockdown is looming after Christmas. Government is just holding out until then.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,325 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    Wouldn't it be better to do one right now and then open back up fully on the 1st December. Circuit breaker I think they call it.



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