Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

You’d be wasting your time. Anti vaxxers will never accept the data and will do their best to twist and turn it into misinformation to suit their agenda. You can’t polish a turd unfortunately.

Kind of says a lot when we struggle to handle .07% of cases. Cases are always going to matter in Ireland when that's the situation.

Yeah, that 0.07% is still over 10% of ICU beds so there's always pressure.

Yup, so we need to either control transmission a lot, which the vaccines do not do as much as we had hoped they would, or accept we're going to be in sh1t and fix the hospitals.

Tony spoofing about antigen testing on Radio One now

Apparently people don't know how to use them properly

Sounds suspiciously like his opposition to mask wearing as well

NPHET were always against antigen testing

Looks at Philip Nolan's snake oil comment

They still have the same opinion and have to be dragged kicking and screaming again to change their advice

Thought it would be higher tbh

Well this is it. We should have opened sooner and followed the UK example of opening up in the summer. This kip was too afraid.

Honestly I feel this would make a huge difference to people's perception of NPHET.

The current iteration of NPHET has failed spectacularly and none of them have any credibility remaining.

If they're going to keep a NPHET-like body they need a complete revamp, starting with new faces and a ban from the airwaves and Twitter.

At the moment they're rewarding failure by keeping the same people in place.

Yep and tell the media to stop getting soundbites off assholes like McConkey as well, I pay as much heed to him as I would to the beggar shouting in the middle of the street.

Looks like those who carry on with Xmas plans are acting "irresponsibly" if you go by what Tony is saying .

Tony asking people to stay at home and work from home. We need to cut discretionary social contacts, whatever the hell that means. Yeah, that message is just going to be roundly ignored.

He flat out lied to Dobbo when he said he was always in favour of antigen testing. He doesn't want the great unwashed using them because "reasons".

My word he just oozes condensation from every pore.

Well now, there is another HPSC report about June to November we can use to extract some of these values.

Total admissions to ICU: 400

Underlying conditions: 322

No underlyings conds: 78

Total vaxxed: 139

Unvaxxed/unknown: 261

If we assume it to be correct that 97% (or 98%) of vaccinated admissions to ICU have underlying condition, then we can say with some certainty that the total breakdown is like this:

Vaxxed w/underlying: 135 (33.75%)

Vaxxed w/o underlying: 4 (1%)

Unvaxxed w/underlying: 187 (46.75%)

Unvaxxed w/o underlying: 74 (18.5%)

This difference is pretty stark. Now, these are moving numbers. A lot of the unvaxxed may have come from earlier in the study, so it's in unfair to say for certain that being unvaxxed make you 18.5 times more likely to end up in ICU.

If we normalise the ratios, the ratio of healthy vaxxed people in ICU is between 1:33 and 1:50. The ratio of healthy unvaxxed people is 1:2.5.

1 in 2-and-a-half. That means that if you are healthy and unvaccinated, you are between 13 and 20 times more likely to end up in ICU than a vaccinated person.

If we apply these numbers to today's ICU figures, we can say that there are 20-25 people in ICU today who are unvaccinated and have no underlying conditions. 20-25 ICU beds that would be available to use if these people had gotten a vaccination. 20-25 families not worrying about whether their loved one would die alone on a ventilator with no visitors allowed.

Of course, these numbers were collected from June on, when practically everyone with underlying conditions had already been fully vaccinated. So if we can say that the 187 unvaxxed with underlying who ended up in ICU, came from (e.g.) the 5% who didn't get vaccinated, then we can say that being unvaccinated with underlying conditions probably makes you 27 times more likely to end up in ICU. Though likely way more than that.

Again, applied to today's ICU numbers, if vaccination of adults was at or near 100%, we would have between 50 and 60 people in ICU.