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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,571 ✭✭✭Penfailed


    I was at my first indoor gig since February '20 tonight in Belfast. 'Twas great!

    Gigs '24 - Ben Ottewell and Ian Ball (Gomez), The Jesus & Mary Chain, The Smashing Pumpkins/Weezer, Pearl Jam, Green Day, Stendhal Festival, Forest Fest, Electric Picnic, Ride, PJ Harvey, Pixies, Public Service Broadcasting, Therapy?, IDLES(x2)



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,069 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Was the efficacy results of those trials released in September 2020 ?

    Pfizer Phase 1 & 2 clinical trials were to deterine the safety, immunogenicity and optimal dose levels were the not ?

    Far as I recall efficacy levels were not released by Pfizer until November 2020 after Phase 3 trials that did did not even begin until end of July 2020.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,804 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    I'm not excluding 50% which are vaccinated. I'm excluding the 50% who are unvaccined.

    So it's a comparison between 1000 confirmed cases before vaccinations were rolled out (1000 unvaccinated) and 1000 recent cases who are all vaccinated.

    I'm not excluding breakthrough infections.

    If you wanted to exclude immunocompromised people (as any vaccine they take would be much less effective, absolutely nothing new there with covid vaccines) it would show an ever bigger impact vaccines have made. You were talking about hospitalisations and not ICU admissions (ICU figures also show vaccines working extremely effectively in the vaccinated vs unvaccinated split)

    And finally, if (I don't have the exact figures to hand) 40% of new cases come from the 10% of the eligible population that are unvaccinated and 60% of the new cases come from the other 90%, that clearly shows that vaccines are preventing infection. If vaccines were not preventing infection, you would expect only 10% of new cases to be in unvaccinated and 90% in the vaccinated group (figures above for cases exclude under 12's as they are not eligible for vaccines)



  • Registered Users Posts: 849 ✭✭✭MilkyToast


    And finally, if (I don't have the exact figures to hand) 40% of new cases come from the 10% of the eligible population that are unvaccinated

    Where's this figure from, where "eligible but unvaccinated" are differentiated from vaccinated and ineligible unvaccinated in term of cases?

    “Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." ~C.S. Lewis



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,540 ✭✭✭Real Donald Trump


    Didn't know where to post this,

    But this is what's going on in China , Absolute bastards! Can you only imagine what they're doing to their own citizens off camera? makes me sick, I only wish there was a hell for these people to end up for doing that to a defenseless dog.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10204173/Chinese-officials-break-womans-home-beat-corgi-death-quarantine.html



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,571 ✭✭✭Penfailed


    I don't think it'd a case of telling the truth or lying. It's a case of Varadkar opening his mouth and shíte coming out. He doesn't believe half of what he says himself. He talks for the sake of talking.

    Gigs '24 - Ben Ottewell and Ian Ball (Gomez), The Jesus & Mary Chain, The Smashing Pumpkins/Weezer, Pearl Jam, Green Day, Stendhal Festival, Forest Fest, Electric Picnic, Ride, PJ Harvey, Pixies, Public Service Broadcasting, Therapy?, IDLES(x2)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,226 ✭✭✭Valhallapt


    That includes non vaccinated, when I said 90% I meant among vaccinated people.


    also there is likely far more asymptomatic infections now. I was one for example, son brought it home from school, he tested positive so I did a test, to my surprise I was positive, never would have bothered testing as I had no symptoms.

    it looks as if the vaccine has been effective, just the Nphet modelled it wrong.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,571 ✭✭✭Penfailed


    The opposition is SF. They've never called for a zero covid policy.

    Gigs '24 - Ben Ottewell and Ian Ball (Gomez), The Jesus & Mary Chain, The Smashing Pumpkins/Weezer, Pearl Jam, Green Day, Stendhal Festival, Forest Fest, Electric Picnic, Ride, PJ Harvey, Pixies, Public Service Broadcasting, Therapy?, IDLES(x2)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,226 ✭✭✭Valhallapt


    Well we are supposed to be building natural immunity on top of the vaccine. For example I got Covid after being double jabbed it was asymptomatic, so I have even stronger immunity now.

    however Nphet has told people to lock themselves under the stairs cabinet, the population will never get herd immunity doing that, it’s the wrong policy. It’s why in rates are falling in the uk and here they are rising despite having a higher vaccination rate.

    vaccines will loose effectiveness within 6 months, that why you need to challenge your auto immune system before the 6 months to keep it fit against Covid.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,332 ✭✭✭prunudo


    Because they're making it up as they go along, introducing meaningless restrictions that will have no effect on spread. All so when they stand in front of the microphones they can say they haven't closed various sectors and everything is open as they said it would be.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 729 ✭✭✭SupplyandDemandZone


    They've also "disappeared" a leading tennis play after she made rape allegations against a former senior CCP party member.

    The usual China defenders and of course the race card pundits will be along in a minute with their stop Asian hate mantra



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,211 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Philip Nolan on Newstalk doubling down that they were right not to reopen fully during the summer. That's 2 years in a row they've done that. What's the bet it'll happen again next year?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,804 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    That's the only breakdown that's been reported on cases (plenty of ICU reports and tweets from Paul Reid about breakdown in hospital)

    Figures from the Health Protection Surveillance Centre, which collates data on the coronavirus disease, show that of 58,361 new cases between September 5th and October 16th, some 25,433 or 43.6 per cent were fully vaccinated.



  • Registered Users Posts: 975 ✭✭✭Parachutes


    They seem to be under the impression they are some form of new celebrity. Public health figures are the new rock stars in their own minds.



  • Registered Users Posts: 224 ✭✭PicardWithHair


    Incredible!

    So vaccines not working then ... Jesus!!



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Data from the HSE about the last 2 weeks has hospitalisations now at about 1.1%(11 cases per 1,000). If NPHET are going to use data it should use post-vaccination data and not add in the huge numbers from the first part of the year.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    That is remarkable data. 75% of the population only had 44% of cases, 25% had 56%. And yet we continue to have countless posts everyday claiming vaccines do not prevent infection. That's a 74% transmission reduction right there.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 6,906 Mod ✭✭✭✭shesty


    He is outright wrong on that.

    I see the HSE are engaging RocDoc, the private comapny offering testing at the airports, as part of their testing regime, and are considering engaging other private providers too, as the testing centres are swamped.

    Wonder how many more ICU beds they could afford for the amount they will eventually end up paying these companies.

    Can't ask that question though...



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,841 ✭✭✭TomTomTim


    They are still spending money on idiotic vaccine badges too. I know someone who came back from getting a booster with one recently. They spent something like half a million on them last year.

    “The man who lies to himself can be more easily offended than anyone else. You know it is sometimes very pleasant to take offense, isn't it? A man may know that nobody has insulted him, but that he has invented the insult for himself, has lied and exaggerated to make it picturesque, has caught at a word and made a mountain out of a molehill--he knows that himself, yet he will be the first to take offense, and will revel in his resentment till he feels great pleasure in it.”- ― Fyodor Dostoevsky, The Brothers Karamazov




  • Registered Users Posts: 870 ✭✭✭DarkJager21


    How in the **** does Nolan get away with stating this without any challenge. His last projections weren't worth wiping your ass with and here he is again with his "optimistic" scenario of 200000.


    1) Approx 511k cases total since March 2020 here - Nolans projections have nearly half of that entire 18 month span occurring in December.

    2) At no stage and at no point in the last 18 months have we approached anywhere near 450 ICU. Nowhere.


    Why is he not being dragged out in front of the cameras with this bullshit and grilled to explain every single assumption and where it came from, what data is it based on and has the data been even verified by anybody else outside of NPHET. It cannot be allowed to continue that this poor data and completely inaccurate projections from this absolute spoofer be used to drive public health measures without a peer review of some sort.


    The Chair of NPHET’s Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group said the possibility in an “optimistic scenario” of 200,000 cases of the virus in December is “not inevitable”. 

    Speaking to RTÉ’s Morning Ireland, Nolan said those models are based on what might happen if nothing changes over the coming weeks in terms of people’s level of social contact and the care taken to prevent transmission. 

    He said if nothing else changes the country is on “a trajectory towards very large case numbers and very large numbers of people in hospital coinciding with Christmas”. 

    Nolan said a risk that 450 people might need intensive care by Christmas is “possible”, but added that “we’re trying now to do everything we can to avert that scenario”.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 387 ✭✭RunningFlyer


    Getting very fed up of hearing "not inevitable" now also, it's definitely the new buzzword floating around Merrion St.



  • Registered Users Posts: 713 ✭✭✭foxsake


    I didn't avoid it , it was introduced in the late 1980s . I'd guess most over 35 didn't get in unless retrospectively.

    sadly i'm over 35 now. I had all the vaccines that were about at the time.

    it would be weird to report people to tusla for medical choices but i guess if covid taught me one thing is that people like reporting others.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie


    Pfizer Phase 1 & 2 clinical trials were to deterine the safety, immunogenicity and optimal dose levels were the not ?

    Yeah. This interim data was released by September 2020 (e.g. Pfizer: Phase I/II study of COVID-19 RNA vaccine BNT162b1 in adults | Nature)

    Maybe I misunderstood you but it sounded like you said we didn't know if there were vaccines or whether they could work.



  • Registered Users Posts: 713 ✭✭✭foxsake


    yet you think those that did read it and once made aware of the risks and decided "no thanks "

    so one might as well not read it in that case.



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    You'd have to guess again, I was given no no patient information leaflet. Only a HSE web page that made no mention of myocarditis etc as a side effect.

    We found out about that when some countries started banning certains vaccinne brands for certain age groups, which was odd, because these were the most tested vaccinnes in human history.


    Here's the thing, you may have the ability to recaliberate your memory to fit the current moment but some of us tend to remember the lines we were fed.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    A few weeks ago the Phase III trials weren't good enough, and now you are saying we knew enoughafter Phase I and II. Make up your mind



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭floorpie


    and now you are saying we knew enoughafter Phase I and II

    I didn't say anything like that. I was pointing out that we knew the candidate vaccines and whether or not they were promising (re: immunogenicity/safety).



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 6,906 Mod ✭✭✭✭shesty


    This is a prime example of "feed numbers into model, look at results".His models may have produced those results.But what he should doing is taking those results and then looking at past performance in comparison.This happened last time round too, in the summer I think it was.Feed numbers in, get numbers out, but ignore the fact that the we didn't even reach the dizzying heights predicted by the model in 2020, with no vaccines,or at the height of Jan/Feb 2021, so why would we reach them with half the country vaccinated.It is a very black and white interpretation of a black and white result, and it is where they should not be driving decisions and where people other than NPHET should be interpreting.The assumptions are too wide I believe, and human behaviour is just too hard to account for.And to be honest, I am still extremely sceptical of any models at the moment.The data is not consistent enough, the vaccines are preventing transmission/ serious infection enough to disrupt any clear link that you try to make between case numbers and ICU admissions, but not enough to say that the link is broken.I still really doubt any models are reliable for now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,636 ✭✭✭Doctor Jimbob


    I don't see why anyone can be bothered listening to Nolan at this point. It's obvious that the same public appetite won't be there for a future lockdown, even if it becomes necessary, because people will assume it will go on for much longer than needed, same as the last couple of times. How can he not see this? Add that to his 'snake oil' comments about antigen tests, the fact the latest models he presented to the government don't take into account an accelerated booster rollout OR any potential increased restrictions in the optimistic scenario, and his utter refusal to even contemplate that schools could be an issue. The man has zero credibility in my eyes.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    News for you - you are not a young lad

    might be sensible for a young lad

    i'm over 35 now

    And even if you were a young lad, you are more at risk of "heart issues" after covid than the jab, and even in case of breakthrough infection post vaccine, the risk of serious issues is massively reduced. So it is in no way sensible for the hypothetical young lad



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