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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,962 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    These models should never be used as a basis for forming government policy. Almost every variable they input into it is an unknown and unknowable number. They are using a best guess approach for these variables, nonetheless they are total unreliable outside of a purely academic exercise.

    Having experience in putting together modelling programs for other endeavors I can sympathize with the team carry carrying out the work. However, they are trying to model something we have very little understanding of with values that are guesstimates. It's an impossible task to do with any degree of accuracy.

    The problem lies with the weak government ministers at the moment who are only too happy to hide behind them when in reality that isn't what they are designed to do. Nolan is for want of a better phrase simple "pulling numbers out of arse" when he quotes them. Sure, one of the models "may" be in the ballpark but trying to determine which one that is would be impossible.

    We have a government basing official policy on something that is just a little bit better than a random number generator. That's completely nuts IMO.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,812 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    Hard to challenge these people when we've the most pussyish media out there.

    Claire Byrne put farage down but hadn't the balls.. literally.. to question our own shower of steady now politicians and wannabe celebrities.

    We are far too docile to do anything but scream "ah for feck sake.. ah well what can ya do eh"

    3 weeks it lasted and even then they'd rolled back on removing all restrictions.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,636 ✭✭✭Doctor Jimbob


    I can understand why the government is using them as a basis for policy, as they have to use something. The big problem IMO is government ministers and NPHET members using these numbers when talking to the media as if they're a given. I've lost count of the amount of times I've heard or read Holohan, Donnelly, Nolan, Glynn, and Martin talk about the case and hospitalisation numbers predicted by the models as if they're guaranteed to happen if we don't do anything. I'm not trying to accuse them of anything sinister, I'm sure it's down to poor communication (or in the case of Donnelly, not having a fecking notion what he's on about), but it's just not good enough.



  • Registered Users Posts: 975 ✭✭✭Parachutes


    This is lockdown talk if I ever seen it. Buckle up folks.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,466 ✭✭✭shockframe


    The contrast between Farage's remark and the damage inflicted by Government/NPHET.

    Thanks for coming on the show today Dr Tony, Michael, Norma 🙄



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,051 ✭✭✭Red Silurian


    I see many nightclubs in our country are now shifting to "late afternoon clubs" fair play to them for trying to make lemonade from lemons, hopefully the govt can realise they are wrong to restrict hospitality to midnight closing!



  • Registered Users Posts: 189 ✭✭choronzonix


    Absolutely. The other issue is that the outcome - whether they prove to be wildly off the mark or completely accurate (which they never have been up to this point, and which no one in the media ever bothers to bring up) - is completely unfalsifiable. If the outcome turns out to be way below the predicted model (i.e. like the summer) then NPHET and the government can simply say "well this is because of our restrictions! See, they worked!" and there is no way to prove it either way. Similarly, if the model turns out to hit the mark, the same actors will tell us "see! The models worked!" so either way they can hide behind them. It is absolute nonsense, and anyone with any sense at this point can see it, but we have a media class simply unwilling to offer any sort of real challenge to this status quo.



  • Registered Users Posts: 713 ✭✭✭foxsake


    news for you, i've sons who are young lads any any reasonable measures.

    some of us have a perspectives beyond their own hole.


    edit ,

    we have some countries suspending covid vaccines due to hearts issues, why? if it's so clear cut. the truth is the data is evolving and the full extent of the vaccines side effects won't be known nor collated for some time to come especially if the side effects werent identified initially as vaccine related.

    We were sold a pup on the vaccine , sure it helps but it doesn't work as we were told - despite the reassurances that this was the greatest effort ever in history , nothing like this can be rushed . despite the resources thrown at it.

    you and many of the pro-lockdown/ pro vaccine people (esp in the media and Dail) debate this as if we should follow a textbook of instructions and that everybody's needs/wants and risk/reward thresholds are the same.

    news for you , they aren't.

    Post edited by foxsake on


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Common sense solution to a problem they didn't create.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,069 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    I said that in September 2020 we did not have vaccines let alone know what they could do if anything.

    The interim data on the Phase I/II study didn`t change that. They were only in relation to safety, immunogenicity and dose levels. Not only were the numbers small with a narrow age group (76 participants aged 19-54 where just 45 were vaccinated) Pfizer stated in that interim report "...findings are not proof of vaccine efficacy. Efficacy will be determined in a pivotal Phase III trial."



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,051 ✭✭✭Red Silurian




  • Registered Users Posts: 153 ✭✭Terence Rattigan


    This is fantastic for Mehole & Co. A ready made scapegoat in a few weeks time. "we didnt foresee young people trying to make the best of a bad thing and still flocking to these Evening Clubs"



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,973 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    2 weeks time, they'll switch the curfew to 10pm probably.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,859 ✭✭✭ebbsy


    I came back from the UK a few weeks ago.

    Nobody checked my Covid Cert or passenger locator form in Dublin . Were they supposed to ?

    Mind you, you would swear that Covid never existed over there. It was amazing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,051 ✭✭✭Red Silurian


    To answer your question, yes they were supposed to check your cert at the Airport upon arrival but like every covid related law we have it's not being followed very stringently

    Except for the hospitality closing times - they're being followed as if it's a new religion



  • Registered Users Posts: 729 ✭✭✭SupplyandDemandZone


    Iv'e family in Liverpool so i go see them regularly usually on the motorbike or car out of Dublin port and over the course of the last year iv'e been 3 times and never asked once for certs. It's a completely different world over there also nobody really talks about Covid and bars are back to normal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 729 ✭✭✭SupplyandDemandZone


    Hopefully it's a roaring success for them and young people get out earlier. They deserve a life and not this nonsense twitchers paradise.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,857 ✭✭✭growleaves


    They do spot checks at the airport - they don't check every person.

    Since you *might* be the person they check, it's a gamble to not have it.

    When I was asked for mine they were happy as soon as I reached into my pocket to get it and then rushed me on without actually examining it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 316 ✭✭d15ude


    Traveled 4 times through DUB airport during the pandamic. Never any checks apart from passport.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,051 ✭✭✭Red Silurian



    I admire the positivity but I think that will likely happen by next week as our numbers will go berserk

    In 2 weeks time we should have the over 80s boosters done and a fine dent made in the other 2 groups. I would expect our hospital numbers to start falling by then also

    All things going well they should reopen the pubs in 3 weeks time

    I'm basing this on a slightly slower increase in the 2 week hospital numbers this week vs last 95 vs 121 (702 in the 2 weeks to yesterday, 607 in the 2 weeks to the 10th and 486 in the 2 weeks to the 3rd) and deaths this week down about 40% on last (43 v 74)

    Of course I could be very wrong but lets see what happens in the next few days



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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,439 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    The numbers could drop by half in the next three weeks and they still would not reopen the pubs or reverse the midnight curfew. Remember, we have to have an abundance of caution.

    You know it and I know it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,193 ✭✭✭Patrick2010


    When did pubs get closed???



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭Allinall




  • Registered Users Posts: 15,513 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    The pubs are still open


    so are nightclubs just they have to close at midnight



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,973 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    Not sure with others, but I uploaded my cert when I flew with Ryanair so wondering do they get those, and don't ask when they have those.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,110 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    Nightclubs generally only come to life at midnight when pubs close in



  • Registered Users Posts: 39,872 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,571 ✭✭✭Penfailed


    The Nolan Show on BBC Radio this morning after the announcement that pubs, clubs, restaurants, cinemas and concerts would require passes from the 13th of December - "Lateral Flow Tests can be forged...we'll need proof of vaccination *and* a negative test!" He's going to have more of this tomorrow. It's been the same for weeks in the lead up to yesterday's announcement. "Why don't we have certs like the south?" Certs announced (along with a DUP ammendment to allow LFT). "Lateral Flow Tests aren't good enough!" "Why aren't places of worship included?!" You think the media in the south is bad...

    Gigs '24 - Ben Ottewell and Ian Ball (Gomez), The Jesus & Mary Chain, The Smashing Pumpkins/Weezer, Pearl Jam, Green Day, Stendhal Festival, Forest Fest, Electric Picnic, Ride, PJ Harvey, Pixies, Public Service Broadcasting, Therapy?, IDLES(x2)



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,464 ✭✭✭MOH


    It's exactly the same con that's been practised by everyone from ancient seers to modern psychics.

    Sadly, we don't have a functioning media in this country to highlight this, or the fact that the government are happy to go along with it since it gives them political cover.

    Nolan is the biggest snake oil salesman out there. It's difficult to find out what he's actually done. He was president of Maynooth for ten years, and before that spent 7 years at UCD. He seems to have spent his entire career in academic administration. He's a professional bureaucrat, like most of NPHET, yet you'd think he was the world's leading expert on viruses from the way he goes on.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,110 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    In theory not ‘closed’ , just soulless sterile, and a bit like sitting in a dentists waiting room.

    Pubs as we knew them are finished. The days of an informal meeting with the lads (or girls) are gone.

    of course someone is going to post and say ‘my pub isn’t like that’ - it is. Showing your papers to have a pint is the stuff of East Germany.



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