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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 438 ✭✭Spiderman0081


    100% of deaths due to covid which occurred during the summer of 2020 were in the unvaccinated. End of discussion people.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,760 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    Isn't she the architect? Not even worth talking about imo. Her opinions on Covid are about as valid and relevant as mine



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,157 ✭✭✭Be right back


    Lots of twitter experts alright. Right cesspool.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,265 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    Seamus wants to exclude children from schools who are born of the ‘unvaccinated’. Same poster was lambasting others last week for suggesting what was occurring now was in any way discriminatory or similar to the 1930s.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,760 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    An architect and a member of ISAG

    Both of the above mean she's not in any way worth listening to



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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Oh I agree entirely. There's plenty of banging on about getting everyone boosted, including Leo's remarks. But the data remains consistent in that being fully vaccinated right now remains the most robust protection. For a small number of people the booster jab is significant, but for the vast majority it doesn't make a large dent in your long-term protection. The long-term benefit of infection is unknown, but it is known to confer equivalent immunity for at least 9 months.

    The pressure is coming from those who have had no infection and no vaccination at all, so I see no need to expand the definition of unvaccinated beyond that.

    Yep, definitely a difficult aspect of it. There is a lot of reliance on good will at present. But if that were to turn into vitriol from the unvaxxed, can we really see bus drivers or shop security willing to deal with it?

    Simpler measures that have come to mind would be a mandatory immediate closure order on any business not properly checking covid certs. Inspector checks you out, if they don't get their cert checked, that's it, everyone out, and you're shut for two weeks. This is without expanding the cert requirements; so just bars, nightclubs, restaurants, etc., not shops or public transport.

    Again, ultimately may be pissing in the wind. Most people are done with restrictions. Close the pubs again, and its house parties all the way. Vaccinated people are not getting very sick, so they don't care any more. Nobody vaccinated or unvaccinated is limiting their household contacts to protect the health service. Vaccinated people don't need to, unvaccinated people don't care.

    This may be it, while we all point at laugh at the government fruitlessly attempting to make a difference, things are going to unfold in the same way no matter what they do.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    What about @ODohertyFergal ? Serious question because i have no idea.

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 729 ✭✭✭SupplyandDemandZone


    The elephant in the room is covid mostly effects people coming to the end of their days here on earth anyway. Vax them, give them boosters and let them social distance if they want but the rest of us have to be allowed move on from this farce now. My own mother in her 80's accepts the risk and is living her life happy to take a booster and let her grandchildren have some sort of life. She is absolutely mortified with old people ringing in Jooooooooooooe Duffy and other shows complaining about young people not caring for others and the constant covid fearmongering in the media.



  • Registered Users Posts: 348 ✭✭Timmy O Toole


    Most of the older people who generally die from covid got the AZ vaccine and hadn't been offered the second dose until mid summer so that's a complete useless statistic.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,962 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    How this will be written into the history books depends on a couple of things. If these draconian measures are indeed temporary and completely removed in a short time frame it may be seen to have been right thing to do. However, if these measures become the norm and lead to ever increasing state control over people's day to day lives I don't think it will be viewed in a favourable light at all.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



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  • Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭cheezums




  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus



    There was a time when I gave the Government credit for having to make sh1tty decisions at a hard time. Of being handed five sh1tty cards and having to pick the least sh1tty.

    But fvkcing hell. Talk about missing an open goal five or six times in a row.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,962 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    That their predictions are not actually predictions just modelled scenarios. I’m sure that will clear up all the confusion they seem having.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    Ok.


    Will do, as soon as I find Nolan's new contact details. You wouldnt happen to have them?



  • Registered Users Posts: 544 ✭✭✭agoodpunt


    hse doing what many predicted they would do in a busy winter season and get a lockdown i do not believe we are being told the truth the public support is on the line here vaccines work or they dont



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,962 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    Sure thing, just dial 10 random numbers on your phone. Isn’t that what he does for his modelling?

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,560 ✭✭✭bennyl10


    our hospitals have needed improving for years, no one has said otherwise, when pre covid

    it didn’t happen, but it doesn’t mean we just accept things are **** let people die?

    it Will be worse this year, more people will die.

    reports from 2017 don’t matter a toss



  • Registered Users Posts: 495 ✭✭Láidir agus Dílis


    On the modelling of covid cases question.

    I'm big into meteorology. There are 3 major computer predicting models (a lot more too). The UK UKMO, the European ECMWF and the American GFS. The UKMO predicts to 6 days out, the ECMWF to 10 days and the GFS to 16. Met Eireann would use all these models, a new super European model is on the way.

    Now Met Eireann will predict the weather to 5 days out and you will often here them talk of uncertainty at that point. There are so many variables and a slight change in pressure, wind direction, track of a low pressure system etc can really alter the forecast. Days 10-16 as predicted on the GFS change with each run of the model (every 6 hours). Very occasionally, like the Beast from the East in Feb/March 2018 they spotted a trend at 12 days out. But these are rarities. You often see the tabloids using click bait like 'Blizzard of the Century' on the way. These often are from one single run of a model 16 days out and have a 1/250 chance of happening.

    I believe there are so many variables with what will happen over the last few weeks of November that it is nigh on impossible to predict case numbers. Variables like boosters, natural immunity, number of people we all meet, the R number itself. A proper weather forecasting service would never tell you 16 days from today, 4th December what the weather will be. Likewise it's crazy for NPHET to be saying we could have between 5,000 and 13,000 cases a day in December. It's too far away. And also the ranges they are using are too big. It's akin to the worst tabloid stuff.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,962 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    Sweet mother of god, how stupid are these people?

    I hope someone asks Donnelly how many nursing jobs this is going to cost.

    I still believe this lot are borderline incompetent at the best of times but they seem to be trolling us know as well.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux




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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,475 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    I don't really understand the complete disbelief that we could have 200,000 cases in December.

    That's just over an average 6.5k cases a day. That's not impossible at all, relative to where we are now. We're already cracking 4k and surely it's more probable to say that cases will rise in the immediate, rather than fall, then 6K or thereabouts isn't really that nuts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,886 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    And yet my 75 year old parents would close nightclubs today if they could. One of them said we don't "need" bars at all and that they didn't have nightclubs and bars in her day.


    Thats what we're dealing with.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,042 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    I'm telling ya they are either the most brainless unaware bunch of politicians ever or just don't give a ****. I think its the latter to be honest.



  • Registered Users Posts: 729 ✭✭✭SupplyandDemandZone


    That posters predictions have been wildly off since i was a lurker here last year. I remember him lambasting another poster last December who predicted we'd se 3k cases a day by the turn of the year. Some people think they are clever by posting up a load of stats and numbers but in reality it's all just guess work with covid. you'd get a more accurate representation by throwing darts at a board.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,636 ✭✭✭Doctor Jimbob


    Proof, if any was needed at this point, that they are clueless and really do not give a fúck.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,037 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Sure you could have 200,000 cases

    it's possible

    Yet the government and Tony etc are quoting the 400,000 figure as a scare tactic

    The modelling is being used to base public policy on all the time even when the assumptions are outdated

    If I do a model which says we will have 250,000 to 1,000,000 cases between now and February I'll be right as there is such a difference in outcomes



  • Registered Users Posts: 495 ✭✭Láidir agus Dílis


    While that's reasonable and very possible, it's the huge ranges. 400,000 cases in December gets very close to 13,000 cases a day. I seriously can't see more than 7,000 cases a day. We'd want to be licking one another! 5,000-13,000 cases a day is a daft range. Surely 5,000-8,000 would be a reasonable projection. With 8,000 the most pessimistic.

    It just seems like they want to frighten the bejaysus out of everyone.



  • Registered Users Posts: 729 ✭✭✭SupplyandDemandZone




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,636 ✭✭✭Doctor Jimbob


    I can't speak for everyone but the issue for me at least isn't the possibility of 200,000 cases but the way it's being stated as a likely outcome if we don't change our behaviour despite the fact the number is coming from models that don't take into account the new restrictions or an acceleration of the booster campaign.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,042 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    Listening to the radio this morning, UCC having their christmas celebrations, been slaughtered by everyone. I absolutely hate the nation we have turned into. Doing exactly what we are been conditioned to do by NPHET, blame the young, blame the protests, blame the pubs, blame the unvaccinated, blame the person who won't wear a mask.

    The blame falls with decades of FFG who have left our ICU capacity at half the OECD average.



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