FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2021 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

A few cold blasts but we could just miss out on the fun, a real risk of cold damp misery while East Britain sees the white gold!

Not suggesting anything but more just for interest, but this morning's ECM output is very similar to that of early December 1981, which ended up being one of the snowiest Decembers of the late 20th century.

Current long-term output:

December 7th 1981:

Available on Meteociel now, Horrible run tbh - by 192h the jet is pushing the ridge down out of Greenland, and it tries to reload and ultimately gets split into an Azores high drifting Eastward over and away from us, and a weak West-based -NAO.

There is however one promising sign that shouldn't be overlooked - a large ridge of high pressure blasting its way poleward from the Pacific. This feature was present alongside the Greenie high in 2010 and I'm fairly sure also in early 2009, so if the high manages to reload on our side it could result in a properly split tropospheric PV - obviously a lot would then depend on the exact placement of these features but it's certainly far from a standard polar vortex setup.

It's definitely a sh!te run compared with what we've been seeing in recent days but that Pacific ridge indicates at least to me that it's not quite game over as far as jet disruption goes.

It was good while it lasted!!…..

The Ecmwf for next Thursday. Imagine 😂.

Don't think I've ever seen that amount forecast at low levels before, maybe 2018 but not sure if that much. I know it is highly unlikely and almost impossible btw.

November 26th might be a snow day but we ain't getting 2010 type cold. Even if good charts verify it will likely be too windy for temperatures to go below 0c so sleety mess bar parts of Ulster and inland in a few sheltered areas

Never get peoples obsession with getting 2010 cold. That was an extraordinary weather event that we will be lucky to see again. Also it lasted too long and despite this many people so more snow over 3 days in 2018.

So in layman’s terms?

Thanks Meteorite

Ya we are lucky to get 2 or 3 days with snow each Winter. The end of November may deliver one of them.

Pretty simple. 2018 occurred in late February and early March, a time when I and I am sure many others look forward to the longer days with hopes of warm sunshine. 2010 occurred in late November and through most of December, a time when the sun is very weak and nights are long as well as it being the festive season so it felt "just right" for lack of a better description or traditional with the Dickensian Christmas lore we were taught as kids.

2018 had bitter windchill (which I know some like), 2010 had a slack airflow vast majority of the time and was more pleasant to be out in.

Flakes in 2018 were tiny because of the very dry polar continental airflow, 2010 had a mix as the air wasn't as dry and made it easier to create snowballs. Bigger flakes are also more picturesque.

2010 keeps getting compared here by many as we are coming up to the point when the 2010 spell started and it is the benchmark. There is no other spell that compares or comes close to it at this point in the year since 1890. Indeed it was extraordinary and I have emphasised this many a time with tons of stats. But this is the case with many Irish events that we use as benchmarks for future possible events such as the summer of '95, the blizzard of January 1982, the thunderstorm of July 1985 etc. Lots of these were once-in-a-lifetime yet we keep mentioning them every time we see possibility of interesting weather.

Anyway, just as I feared, there continues to be a watering down of any kind of Greenland heights and is now firmly a mid-Atlantic ridge with standard northerly toppler expected which will be a change again on the exceptionally mild autumn we've been having that for many has been frostless but it doesn't take away from the fact that vast majority of autumns see a pattern of this kind at some point. Some crisp sunshine, some cold rain showers with hail and sleet/snow on high ground, quite blustery NW/N'ly winds. Standard fare. Mind that surprise snow events can still occur in such a pattern (what we like to call "ninja snow" on here), just quite unlikely to do so and especially this time of year in late November.

Until we see proper Greenland blocking or strong amplification from tropical drivers, I do not foresee much in the way of a very cold pattern setting up any time soon. Typical topplers than anything else. As ever, I hope I am wrong and there is plenty to talk about ahead after this really bland autumn.

I think there's reason to be optimistic with how this late autumn period is lining up as we approach winter, from a coldie perspective. Next few days will tell a lot.

There is something special though about an early winter snowfall. Feels more natural and seasonal. By mid-January, days are starting to get noticeably longer with that ominous foreboding of the coming early Spring hanging in the air.