Autumn 2021 - General Discussion

It should be taken into account that the longterm November monthly average temperature is an average of two very different values at the start and end of the month, and therefore comparing short periods within the month to the overall average monthly figure is misleading. This time of the year there is a sharp drop in the daily or weekly averages, as can be seen below.

For example, the longterm average daily temperature (purple line) for Casement at the start of November is a around 8.5 °C while at the end of the month it's around 6.0 °C. That's a sharp drop of around 0.6 degrees per week. So taking the current running average for this November so far may be above the longterm montly average, but there's another half of the month to go, so let's see how the month ends overall.

Wonder will kermit start a cold spell/or snap thread over the weekend? Whatever happens I'm sure it will be nothing too exciting but I'm delighted we will be getting at least the high possibility of fairly harsh frosts.

They are getting very excited over on Netweather - I can't understand a word of it, but I assume it's all forecasts for the UK exclusively and doesn't include Ireland...? I know a lot of it is still Fantasy Island and they are known for frequently throwing their toys out of the pram, so to speak 😆

Some of the recent GFS runs have been very wintry by later next week and that would include parts of Ireland too. The problem is, the GFS has been known to over-amplify cold at this time range and it wouldn't take much of a downgrade to reduce this wintry potential to the status of further coldish days as we already expect for the early part of next week, taking the snow streamer potential out of play and reducing the frosts to less severe. There have also been some model runs showing entirely different outcomes.

My excitement is about a 6 on the 10 point scale at this point. But I would like to see several days of this output without a lot of chop and change, and would also like to be within five days of any given map showing wintry potential to become a really strong believer.

I think it was around end of Jan 2020 that the GFS had similar looking charts that never materialized even faintly, so there is that, however, the GFS has been doing fairly well since some upgrades too. We are at that preliminary stage where you can start to look for tabloid headlines and that sort of early indicator.

🤣

I cut the lawn last week, the latest i ever did. The Ground was saturated but grass is still growing since.

Lots of spiders still on the go. I killed a false widow spider today in the kitchen as well. First time I ever saw one up here. Great. Whether it snows or not next week I'm hoping for some heavy frosts to kill off the insects.

Stunning morning. Watching the sun rise above the Loch into a blue blue sky. Gorgeous.

A day to wrap up warm and get things done outside.

Just a footnote to this. The wind will cut you in two. Layering is your friend.

Driving home late last night and there was sleet mixed in with showers on the higher part of the road.

Love this type of evening. Cool and clear with Venus bright in the south and the moon just coming up in the north east

Lovely evening after a great day to be out and about, sunny and clear after a crisp start, thankfully it looks like the mild mucky weather from last week wont be around this week and we'll have more weather like today

1.3c here in my area of meath, nice frost on the grass