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Austria hits panic button.

1679111216

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,141 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    @spaceHopper wrote

    The AZ vaccine seems to be much more affective

    How are you getting that from the charts in the post you quoted?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Cut out? erm, I didn't. The whole article is linked for anyone who wants to visit there and read. I copied points in the report, that is all - so spouting claims dishonesty is actually on you.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    It seems that way.

    It's also high time we stopped calling them "vaccines" - preventative therapies perhaps.



  • Registered Users Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    You posted the link AFTER another poster showed that you cut out the other half of the visualisation. Doubly dishonest now, in accusing me of something. Pathetic.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Yes, I'll be back on here again by mid-December when Varadkar Donnelly and Martin announce a lockdown from December 20th with pubs closing on December 13th to say "I told you so... vaccines are pretty useless" after a hard-core cohort on here defending them and the other useless measures this country has flung €40 billion at. I bet the discussion will be about taking Austria's lead and mandatory vaccinations for the Irish by then too.

    At least we can burn our covid passports to keep us warm over christmas.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    After 1am in the morning, I doubt too many were hanging on every word posted here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    A small percentage better off, but on a grand scale it's pretty small in terms of numbers catching Covid.

    I accept and the data shows that hospitalisation of vaccinated is lower than that of unvaccinated, but when it comes to spread and onward transmission I have serious reservations and when one express these reservations they are in hot water with the covid police.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,906 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Whereas doing nothing and letting the bodies pile up should be the strategy instead? Still want to "f*ck the hospitals"? or calmed down yet?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,033 ✭✭✭spaceHopper


    correction the pfizer vaccine is giving protection against catching it for long for longer the AZ one bottoms out after 11 weeks, this is for catching it, based on ICU admissions you are much better off vaccinated by a x 8 to 10 factor. Israel is doing much better after a booster program.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,651 CMod ✭✭✭✭faceman


    First point - No, you're wrong. here's the evidence based, peer reviewed science on transmission of Delta and vaccinated vs unvaccinated.


    Second Point - Yes the hospital system in Ireland is a shambles. But it can't be fixed overnight and we are still left with the current overcrowding and stresses on ICU. Anyone who has ever been in ICU or know anyone who has will know that there is a world of difference between a stretched ICU and a stretched hospital ward. The nature of ICU means you can't have a stressed or stretched ward, otherwise its no longer safe and its no longer ICU.


    This Point - Yes its horrible. But look at other countries with far better health systems than ireland. They still have breaking points. Spain and Italy in the 1st wave was devastated. Germany and Austria are trying to avoid it happening to them - in wave 4. Covid hasn't gone away.


    As for your last point about letting the hospitals collapse, says it all about you really.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Where did I say we do nothing? You are trying to put words in my mouth. We have adopted the wrong policies and the proof of that is we're staring another Christmas lockdown in the face with ~94% of adults vaccinated.

    But by all means, continue to look for scapegoats in unvaccinated folks - the divide and conquer policy is proving more effective than the "vaccine".



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Thanks. I am vaccinated but that seems fairly disappointing.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,651 CMod ✭✭✭✭faceman


    And you're basing that conclusion on what? Have you had your head in the sand the past 2 years? You've seen the stats on excess deaths right?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,033 ✭✭✭spaceHopper


    Actually I was wrong, the AZ vaccine is chadox1 and Pfizer is bnt162b2 if you look at the graph the dash line is the probability of a Pve PCR test for unvaccinated the line or AZ hits it between week 8 and 12. So it's saying your protection against catching it has waned but you probably won't be as sick



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,272 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    "fook all difference" says the other fella.

    Let's take a simplistic example. Look at the blue vaccination line for alpha and take the respective probabilities at 14 weeks after vaccination.

    Suppose we start out with 1000 vaccinated and 1000 unvaccinated positive cases within their overall populations. One country fully vaccinated and the other not. Assume an unvaccinated R rate of 1.0 and that both populations have same number of contacts.

    Rd 0: 1000 Vaccinated have it, 1000 unvaccinated have it

    Rd 1: 377 vaccinated catch it from the 1000 in Rd 0. 1000 unvaccinated catch it from the 1000 in Rd. 0

    Rd 2: 142 vs 1000

    Rd 3: 54 vs 1000

    Rd4: 20 vs 1000

    Rd 5: 8 vs. 1000

    Rd 6: 3 vs 1000

    Rd 7: 1 vs 1000


    That is without adding that the vaccinated will have less sickness and require less medical intervention.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,033 ✭✭✭spaceHopper


    Justy wash your hands and wear a mask....I've young kids in school and it seems like schools are really struggling for all the government talk they haven't got HEPA filters and are relying on opening windows. We aren't been told of cases in their class but kids themselves always talk. Their teacher was out for two weeks also



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,906 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    You can, at any point, list your policies. Other countries with better health systems are going back to lockdown and restrictions due to lower vaccinated rates, so we're doing OK there, we'll see how we hold up. But if you have a better plan to implement from this point forward, do describe it, "f*ck the hospitals" is the only bit described thus far.

    (I would also say with 92% adults vaccinated, there's no divide and conquer, the conquering was done long ago, until unvaccinated hospitalised are 1:1 than they'll have more restrictions than everyone else, or we're out of the pandemic).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,906 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    It's a deflection mechanism, "they would have died anyway" and "restrictions don't work" are the typical refrain.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Oh ya, all good. I'm completely relaxed about Covid. Vaccinated, relatively young and fit. I've moved on with life to be honest. I'm just surprised with the short timeframe it prevents transmission. The main thing is the reduction of serious symptoms like you said.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,560 ✭✭✭Squeeonline


    Depends, but outside of the big cities, under €4 for half litre of a local beer.



  • Registered Users Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    The vaccine is based on an earlier variant of the virus. The fact that it still offers protection against infection and very strong protection against serious illness is great.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,560 ✭✭✭Squeeonline


    Among my friends, people are annoyed. They feel they have sacrificed enough for long enough. We don't feel like shops should be closed but understand that bars and restaurants give too much close unmasked contact. Especially the week of Black Friday where many were planning to shop.


    The vaccine mandate, we wish it weren't necessary and aren't sure it's even the right way to do it. There's a lot of pushback from anti-vaxxers. One suggestion from a friend was to not have a vaccine mandate but instead only give social welfare, state pensions etc to vaccinated. Getting vaccinated is part of participating in society with this pandemic.


    "many" feel that the government is being reactive rather than proactive and haven't an actual clue or plan. Rules change very frequently and it disrupts any plans that a person or business can put in place.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,560 ✭✭✭Squeeonline


    I don't think so. Kurz is very business friendly and wouldn't have closed shops this close to christmas. That being said, the government has only asked people to work from home and is not mandating it. So here I am, at my desk in an office, doing a job that could be done from home.


    I would love to see the numbers about infections caused by shopping vs other places.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,906 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    "many" feel that the government is being reactive rather than proactive and haven't an actual clue or plan. Rules change very frequently and it disrupts any plans that a person or business can put in place.

    That's pretty much every government at the moment. Being proactive means hardship without a clear reason or based on what might happen, the electorate don't like that.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    Surely it's the opposite: they want poor people and pensioners not to die. And the best way to protect them from this horrible disease is by getting everyone vaccinated.

    If people need a push to do that, then so be it - as per the mandate measures we're seeing across many countries now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,787 ✭✭✭I see sheep


    Yeah thanks I know that's the argument being put forward.

    It's just that I disagree with it as strongly as it's possible to disagree with anything, and if this does happen it's probably the worst thing any European government has done in my lifetime.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,560 ✭✭✭Squeeonline


    It's pretty extreme, I'll admit. I'd be ok with it being threatened and discussed but implementation would be a bit harsh, especially when there are many other steps the government could take the reduce cases.


    Like closing the ski lifts. Sure skiing is a solo effort, but the partying afterwards, and the cramped lifts up are where the outbreak in europe really started.


    Then there was the fiasco last year with british ski instructors basically sneaking in, declaring austria as a second residence (airbnb) to get around restrictions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,978 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    What people forget is the vaccine were developed against the alpha variant. If we had used traditional vaccine development we probably be only seeing them come on stream now. Flu vaccines have to change every year and this disease is very similar to a flu.

    Considering that Delta is away more transmissible and is slightly different to the original infection the vaccines have proved quite resilient.

    At present in Ireland it's not the disease that is the issue it's that we are swallowing up hospital resources with unvaccinated people becoming bed blockers. If everybody was vaccinated except children less than half the present beds occupied by COVID patients would be in use.

    There are many disease that need yearly vaccinations but as human's we do not generally need them.

    In farming it is now quite common to vaccinate for peunomia virsus's and for tetanus and other diseases.

    There is a 10 in one vaccines that is used regularly to prevent disease when cattle are grazing. The main ones it prevents is blackleg and tetnaus. Weanling calves coming off Suckler cows are vaccinated for a number of peunomia type viruses.

    Dairy cows are vaccinated against a number of virsus with the intention of protecting the calf when he is born.

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,560 ✭✭✭Squeeonline


    That's quite a mental leap. Have you considered gymnastics? By that leap, I would assume you think that the only unvaccinated are old or poor.

    Austria has the lowest uptake of vaccinations of comparable european countries. Participation in society comes with responsibilities. People who are wilfully remaining unvaccinated are endangering themselves others - whether it's taking up another bed in a hospital or spreading the disease to others.

    I'm also in favour of strict measures to insure that fewer lives are lost, and fewer people have the long term side-effects of a disease that has infected over a million in austria alone.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    I don't think anyone seriously thinks (for example) that pensions or SW payments should or would be stopped.

    But if people are refusing to take safe, effective vaccines, for whatever reason, and by this inaction causing grave harm to others then, in the interests of society at large, some form of mandate is going to have to be imposed. What form that takes is up to individual governments.

    I haven't seen any detail of how the Austrians are going to enforce legally-mandated vaccination. Has anyone seen the detail?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,141 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    @Raoul Duke III wrote

    I haven't seen any detail of how the Austrians are going to enforce legally-mandated vaccination. Has anyone seen the detail?

    In the interview I posted a link to earlier the chancellor said fines would be levied.

    No more detail than that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    Thanks.

    Probably the smartest way to do it. €500 (or whatever, needs to be 'enough' to be a real deterrent) for first offence, a month to get jabbed and then increase the fine.

    Increasing employer mandates will probably do a large part of the job anyway.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,498 ✭✭✭Harika


    For now you get a letter in the post with an appointment. If you skip it long enough you get penalties after February. I read starting with 600 Euro.

    A lawyer suggested to link the vaccine status to transfer payments, same as for kids vaccination as this is common. If parents ignore them, they lose privilege and transfer payments like child benefits.

    If you don't abide by the rules of the law why do you expect to be treated like you do? Pension might be different to unemployment payment. Latter you lose if you don't actually look for a job. You still get paid but far less.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,617 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers


    If people are not willing to take a jab them a number of then wont pay a fine.


    If they dont pay the fine do you then jail them and confine people to more cramped conditions where their possibility of contracting covid increases?


    sounds mad ted.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,942 ✭✭✭growleaves


    Once you turn something like say social welfare into a bargaining chip it will in time alter how people see the state.

    It's supposed to be a social safety net, not a "carrot" or reward for conformity.

    As for removing tax credits, you're only pushing people into the black market.

    Basically the more drastic the punishment the less identification people will feel towards the establishment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,141 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    Indeed. The pragmatic (rather than ideological) counterargument to Austria's strategy is that legal action is unnecessary for the persuadable and ineffective for the unpersuadable.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,170 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Well some are questioning the long term safety, which regardless of one's position on the matter is still up in the air. By definition one can't measure long term safety over the short term and mRNA vaccines have only been in the wild in actual use for less than 18 months. I personally doubt there will be any major long term issues, but I can make no claim to that based on actual science and neither can anybody else. As for effective? Well it seems that's somewhat up in the air too. Yes vaccines most certainly do reduce the risks of hospitalisation and death. EG in the 50-60 age group by around ten to one compared to the unvaccinated. A big number to be sure. However in more big number terms that means that in the 50-60 age group out of one hundred thousand people ten of the unvaccinated will die from covid, in the vaccinated just under two will and of those that die in either group well over 90% will have pre existing serious underlying conditions. Cardiovascular disease being the biggie. So this grave harm is quite small overall. Of course it goes up with people over 60, 70 and especially 80. Secondly while the vaccines do reduce transmission, the current batch of vaccines are pretty "leaky" in that they don't drop transmission below an R0 of 1.

    Given the numbers and this pox being the least deadly pandemic in world history, I would be extremly dubious about throwing out hard won human rights in liberal civilised countries.

    If this were a new form of smallpox out there the big numbers would be staggering. Out of one hundred thousand around thirty thousand would be dead, another thirty thousand(at least) would require hospital treatment. Vaccination in that case... well I'd be in favour of holding down the anti vaxxers and jabbing them with extreme prejudice. For me it's a question of degree of threat and the response to that degree of threat. .

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    I'll give you a counter-argument: People who are jabbed will feel greater affinity with society ('we're all in this together') and it builds social cohesion, rather than destroys it. Leaders should be messaging this far more in my view.

    Much like in wartime populations. And this is the closest thing to a war we'll ever live through.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,141 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    @Wibbs wrote

    Secondly while the vaccines do reduce transmission, the current batch of vaccines are pretty "leaky" in that they don't drop transmission below an R0 of 1.

    Well the R0 of delta is supposed to be around 6-8 from what I recall. So a drop to the current estimated R of around 1.3 is an impressive achievement for the combination of vaccines, light restrictions, and general cop-on we have in play at the moment.

    Of course some people argue that the vaccines are ineffective and the regulations are ineffective, leaving only cop-on to reduce R by a factor of 5-ish. Which seems a monumental stretch, but whatever.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭Raoul Duke III


    One thing is for sure (no matter what your opinion) on this Austrian: it is a bold piece of political leadership.

    It'll be very interesting to watch from this distance and see how it plays out. And if it is seen to be successful, whether other EU governments will seek to emulate it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,942 ✭✭✭growleaves


    It isn't war-like at all, apart from the mental atmosphere which the media have modelled on war hysteria.

    The obsession with life-extension for the elderly is fairly recent and would look strange to previous generations. Deaths of the very old would not be a crisis to any human society of the past.

    Social cohesion can only be increased if people choose vaccination which is why all the threats, penalties, stigma, blame, pressure and snarling create alienation.

    A nod towards a basic understanding of human psychology would be useful, but like so many things it's beyond many.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    There are less and less unvaxxed people around, and cases keep rising everywhere in Europe. How long are we going to keep blaming the unvaxxed for this? It's time to accept that the vaccines aren't going to stop the spread.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,269 Mod ✭✭✭✭Chips Lovell


    I'd expect that they'll be as blamed for as long as they continue to amount to a disproportionate number of hospitalisations.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    Ireland is one of the most vaccinated countries in Europe and here we are entering yet another wave

    I'd rather have a solution that makes everybody move forward, blaming other people sounds like political manipulation rather than medical advise



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,978 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    If you do not understand what is causing the problem you cannot solve it. Quite simply 7% of the adult population are hogging over 50% of hospital and ICU beds which they would not be if they were vaccinated.

    If like pubs and restaurants we decided you needed a COVID certificate to enter hospital that would solve the problem. Would you be happy with that solution. Send them home with a packet of paracetamol if they have no cert.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,942 ✭✭✭growleaves


    Most people seem to be willing themselves to be manipulated. A pile-on against a small negligible sub-group of the population is safe and easy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,978 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    That small negible group are hogging hospital beds and ICU. That means cancer patients cannot receive treatment. A Dublin hospital has to cancel a transplant operation lat week as it had no ICU beds.

    That is the problem not rats hat people ate getting infected.

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,942 ✭✭✭growleaves


    Rats hat?

    As I said on a different thread, punitive action in this country will just push Central and Eastern Europeans into returning home.

    If that's what you want go for it.

    Will increase the labour shortage but hey whatever that's only a knock-on effect.



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