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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,556 ✭✭✭political analyst


    The problem with antigen tests is that they were not being used properly - only if you're asymptomatic you're supposed to use them. If you have symptoms, you must use a PCR test.



  • Registered Users Posts: 827 ✭✭✭HalfAndHalf


    Just Tony following Tony’s narrative of recommending closing X Y and Z and restricting this and that again!

    According to his ‘knowledge’ that means that today’s 5634 cases has an additional 125 in hospital and 16 in ICU.

    Yet these an increase of 16 in hospital and 1 in ICU.

    That is some grade A quality BS right there.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,566 ✭✭✭bennyl10


    Haven’t we been told previously that there’s approx a 2 week overlap for admissions?


    so are those the hosp numbers we should “predict” to see soon? Rather than today



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    Yeah I've always thought that. I don't get the obsession with daily case numbers tbh.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    No. Admissions now are from 10 days ago when we also had 4000 plus cases per day so at that rate the overlap is covered.

    The modelling done was based on 2% being hospitalised though



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,526 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    But, equally, we don't know then that each swab corresponds to an individual announced case?

    There must be instances where there's more than one swab taken from an individual.

    I can remember this being asked about a few times in the briefings, but, there's been a lot of water under the bridge since then so I don't recall the exact details but the gist of it is, as I recall, is that it's not as straightforward as swabs = cases for a given day.



  • Registered Users Posts: 827 ✭✭✭HalfAndHalf


    I see @Stheno has answered so just for the craic, using Tony’s magic algorithm based on 4000 cases today we should have 100 new admissions and 8-12 people in ICU.

    We didn’t!



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno



    I think the issue that causes the discrepancies is that with higher volumes it can take time to match swabs to new positives

    Either the daily swab data or weekly numbers is more straightforward for me tbh



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    No my numbers were based on 10 days ago to take into account the lag


    Same numbers anyway as we'd 4000 odd cases then too.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    Well there's no backlogs anymore - it's a 3 day period to announce a case so carryovers =/= backlogs. Fergal Bowers just tweeted that daily cases covers 'many days' so whether it even is capped to 3 days is debatable. It's frustrating but they've given the wiggle room now to allow for the random 1000 extra cases that appear vs. swabs without it being considered a backlog.

    On another note, is there a reason why processing of swabs to cases has gone absolutely wild lately? I don't remember it ever being so weird, but maybe it has been and on a smaller scale it doesn't seem so wild. If it's workload or staffing issues then why can they have 5500+ processed then the next day it drops to 4000. Or the 19th Nov it drops all the way to just above 3000? Whatever about overall system capacity hindering things in terms of raw testing and so on, but every second day atm or so there is a drastic change in the numbers reported. I don't get after all this time that there is still so much variance in the process. Curious auld stuff.

    But as others have said - just stick with the rolling averages for cases but no harm in following daily swab numbers as these are much more steady even if the number doesn't have a 1:1 correspondence.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Worrying that someone who leads public health is engaging in fake news on hospitalisation data. Is it fake news on school transmission? Is it fake news on the benefits of antigen tests?



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    It's not fake news per se on hospitalisation, more assumptions based on modelling.

    They (NPHET) don't seem to adapt to real life data much

    As for schools the ECDC have come out and said they are high risk but that seems to be being ignored.

    Not sure about antigens tbh



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,007 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    That's NPHET advice though and is only a very narrow way to look at antigen tests. If someone can isolate at home and doesn't need a PCR it's surely better than having them go to busy test centres.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • Registered Users Posts: 553 ✭✭✭Apothic_Red


    So I look for a bit of hope in this mire & turn to Israel.


    Why did we put up with NIAC faffing around for weeks before making a call on boosters with data like the above freely available.

    Couple this with Merck/Pfizer antiviral pill & we might be out of this by Spring 2022.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno




  • Registered Users Posts: 8,424 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Couple this with Merck/Pfizer antiviral pill & we might be out of this by Spring 2022.

    No chance. Reopening likely for September 2022 regardless of data, no point reopening to soon and having to "roll back" the restrictions



  • Registered Users Posts: 827 ✭✭✭HalfAndHalf


    The curse of the missing comma.

    I used your 4000 from 10 days ago:

    Read it as:

    I see @Stheno has answered so just for the craic, using Tony’s magic algorithm based on 4000 cases 10 days ago, today we should have 100 new admissions and 8-12 people in ICU.

    We didn’t.

    👍



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,039 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    If the rate was actually 3% Tony & Co would have no problems adapting



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,275 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    Interesting, the pandemic of the unvaccinated isn’t standing up to evidence.

    @astrofool I already stated that the side effects are under reported in current Covid vaccines due to a lag in time between the investigations and adding them to the statistics. I’ve no issue with other childhood vaccinations whatsoever or travel vaccinations either for that matter. Many of which I took for travel overseas.

    I do have an extremely big issue with mandating vaccines like Covid vaccines on populations in the EU, forcing them on people and boosters on us. Absolutely people should get them if they so wish. 92% of adults did that in Ireland and yet here we are. There have been some shameful posts on this thread in relation to excluding children of ‘unvaccinated’ parents from schools, ostracising people from society and imprisonment. None of these suggestions belong in a western democracy, posters such as these should go & live in China for awhile under their social credit system & report back to boards. Although all the evidence is pointing towards no return to normality for Western Democracies going forward so maybe they’ll be right at home in Stasi Ireland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 47 fleck


    Admissions are averaging just over 70 a day from 4000 cases, so it's not far off 2% , is it ?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 553 ✭✭✭Apothic_Red


    Someone posted the same Israel data in Gavan O'Reilly's twitter thread.

    They've squeezed the x-axis for max effect




  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Where are you getting that figure of average 70 admissions a day from?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,675 ✭✭✭brickster69


    It is not NIAC faffing around. It is the lack of planning in rolling the boosters out. How on earth they gave priority to jabbing the kids beforehand i don't know, surely Ireland could of been prepared to hand out 70K boosters a day at a push. It would probably be job done if they did / could.

    I may be wrong but i think some countries have plenty of vaccines kicking about but not enough Pfizer. Germany have a problem because people only want to use one vaccine now and there is not enough of it yet have millions of Moderna in fridges that will go out of date soon.

    Does sound familiar


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    but aren't kids far more likely to contract heart problems from covid (and other issues) than from the vaccine.

    Yeah, but covid 19 is an insidious virus that we've spent 2 years trying to avoid. The vaccine is a substance injected into the child's arm under the supervision and with the consent of the child's parents.

    Parents don't take chances with their children's health. If they are under no threat from covid what kind of parent would hold their child's hand while they are injected with a substance that may, possibly, do them harm?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,842 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    We're currently at a 7 day average of 60 admissions per day or 77 if you take the total hospital detected cases.

    Just on your figures and accounting for a 10 day lag, the previous 28 days have seen 1241 admissions or 1852 hospital detected cases based on 76756 cases in the 28 days (with a 10 day offset)

    So either 1.6% or 2.4% hospitalization rate. Obviously the 1.6% is the correct rate, however the 2.4% cannot be ignored.

    The 7 day admission average was kinda level at 40 up until a week ago (it's now at 60)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,226 ✭✭✭Valhallapt


    If tony holohan is making up data and stats to scare the bejaysus out of people. And the government allows tony to continue falsifying data so people behave is a certain way. Does it not imply that they government has directly harmed many citizens, no shortage of people suffering anxiety from listening to Tony. Surely there has to be redress for these people. They state has a responsibility to its citizens, knowingly terrifying them surely can’t be right?



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Thanks for posting that.

    Makes some sense of the 2% if they are including cases detected after hospitalisation for something else in the modelling



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,691 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    The data in that, effctively, opinion piece is not good for the unvaccinated, but I've said it many times, we're as vaccinated as we'll get in Ireland, we may squeak another 1% and more when we start on 5-11 year olds, but not much, the COVID cert is down to pressure on hospitals, 12x more likely if unvaccinated, when that is 1:1 then they're no longer needed.

    Do elaborate on this, I don't think it will stand up to any scrutiny and guessing it's coming from a bunch of anti-vax sites and people but would be interested if there's genuine date there.

    I already stated that the side effects are under reported in current Covid vaccines due to a lag in time between the investigations and adding them to the statistics



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    More kids will get myocarditis from Covid than the vaccine. Why do people insist on continuing to lie?



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Over the past few days we are running at about 80 admissions per day. Not very far off. Some cases are also confirmed post admission



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