Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

If the cases are dropping, is it the case that we can drop the seamus shaming?

The CMO has been on any platform that will have him warning us that the situation is dire and we need to do something. I think we all agree that he fabricated hospitalization figures a couple of evenings ago to give the impression that for every 1000 positive cases we were seeing 100 admissions. That was done with the sole intention of alarming people and had a huge impact on some peoples health. They decided to target the hospitality sector again.

Pure panic and set the tone for the general public buying into it and the situation getting over hyped. At not one point did Holohan come on and try and cool the jets a little.

From the perspective of public health a message of alarm is what they want to deliver and it seems to be having an effect. Hospital numbers are not fictitious and it's a rate they are using in their models, one they should probably change.

It's great to see the hospital numbers reducing. I think the media need to cool the jets. I also think the teachers unions need to settle down - they are only creating noise at this point - nobody wants to listen to their incessant moaning.

This is the latest comments I can see by NPHET.

No panic there.

Plausible theory. It's good as well because it means acute beds are freed up faster for those who need them.

Though at the same time 88 discharges in 48 hours is not that unusual. We had days with 80+ admissions last week and all of those people will be discharged eventually. Which means days of 80+ discharges are likely, especially when we compress most of our discharges into Mondays and Fridays.

Good thread by Mina,

it’s the way I’ve been using antigen all along. Only way to do it. The fact that FF are running with CMO’s take on antigen is worrying itself don’t mind the fact Holahan all but says is still very much against antigen testing.

But no panic. Right?

The tone has changed in the last 24-36 hours. Panic inducing tweets and interviews before that. From the CMO, NPHET, HSE and the media.

Tony Holohan suggesting there could be up to 400,000 cases in December if people don't behave themselves: Dr Tony Holohan: Covid cases could reach up to 400,000 in December unless there are behavioural changes - Independent.ie - about 4 times our previous peak in January this year when no one was vaccinated. I don't think it's unreasonable to portray that as panic.

I have felt all along that restrictions should be metrics based.

For example...

If ICU numbers hit # then the following restrictions kick in...

If hospital numbers hit # then the following restrictions kick in...

If positive test cases hit # then the following restrictions kick in...

It would remove a lot of the idle speculation.

I would have thought its perfectly normal for a pharmacy to take CMO's advice on a medical matter, no ? Not liking the man or the advice doesn't necessarily mean its wrong.

I kinda agree with this, but there's always such wiggle room and selective interpretation of rules and information here, I can't see it working in practice. Imagine if the hospitalisations number for restrictions was 1,000 - you'd have health professionals panicking at 999 looking for restrictions, and if it was 1,001 you'd have people saying there's no need, sure we're only just over the limit. I know that's very simplistic, I just can't see it working here tbh. I think it would really lead to the anticipatory behaviour Glynn spoke about many moons ago. Love them or hate them, I think there has to be an element of expert judgement in any of these calls, I'm not convinced a pandemic response can be so "check box" oriented. Trends and background info have to be factored in I think.

Yep the tone has changed.

But to be fair the panic has been from a full on assault from the media. RTE, Newstalk you name it. Anyone claimign theres be no panic only here simply hasnt been listening to a radio or seen a tv in the last few weeks.

It hasnt been helped by our celeb CMO going on every talk show, tv news programme to be questioned multiple time about bringing in restrictions, but also to be fair to him he hasnt taken the bait

I wouldnt blame NPHET etc for the panic apart from the addiction some of them have to celebrity and cant help themelves but as has been the case for the duration of this pandemic the media have been a complete and utter disgrace and ive witnessed what its done to a generation of people in the country, my own family members included.

My assumption is that the "gold standard" is still PCR, but it is impractical to do routine PCR testing of asymptomatic people, therefore antigen fills the gap. If you have COVID symptoms then the gold standard still applies, even if the reality is that you have to wait days for a test slot.

Put it this way: if you had the choice of both, and actually wanted the most accurate result (e.g. if you were visiting a vulnerable relative that you wanted to keep alive), and were prepared to wait for a result, then you would pick PCR.

That's the whole basis of the previous advice about antigen testing - it has been proven less accurate than PCR, which is why PCR is used when accuracy matters.