The Coming World War

23-11-2021 2:19pm #1

Scanning the various news websites around western Europe and the US, you would never know that there hasn't been greater danger of the outbreak of a third world war since the 1950s and 1960s.

Two historic powers have risen again and seek to reassert themselves as pre-eminent in their regions: China and Russia. Unnatural allies, the USA's failed policy to remain the global hegemon pitches it - and Europe - into direct conflict at two primary flashpoints: Eastern Europe and the South China Sea.

Russia maintains the largest tank army in the world. It could roll across the Suwalki Gap before anyone even knew what was happening, cutting off the Baltic states. NATO's expansion to Russia's borders is an unacceptable threat to Russian national security; the Russian Empire has always sought to dominate the Baltics, Belarus and Ukraine to provide a buffer between western Europe and the Russian heartland; due to the flat, indefensible terrain, these countries have always posed as mere highways for the invading armies of Poland-Lithuania, imperial Sweden, Napoleonic France, Wilhelmine Germany, Austria-Hungary and Nazi Germany. Russia also seeks possession of warm water Baltic ports and to secure the interests of its nationals in those states. It matters not that you don't consider these points valid: The Russian mindset is all that matters.

The Baltics and Ukraine are militarily indefensible and NATO cannot even attempt to do so without risking a nuclear war -- because Russia has more nuclear weapons than the US, and it has the means to deliver them hypersonically. And Russia has currently amassed weapons and troops at the Ukrainian border. It looks very much like they're poised to cross and invade it any time now.

Which brings us to China. China's navy is now larger than the US navy. It has longer range anti-ship missiles, hypersonic capability, and a rapidly growing thermonuclear arsenal. They are being very open and honest about their designs on Taiwan. As open as Hitler was on Poland. They have threatened Japan with nuclear extermination should it intervene in their conquest of Taiwan.

So -- the board is set. Don't be too surprised if a coordinated, simultaneous attack on Ukraine, the Baltics and Taiwan is executed by Russia and China. The US and NATO can either fight or not. If they fight, they and particularly the US cannot win the ensuing two-front war. Any attempt to do so runs the serious risk of escalating into a thermonuclear exchange which will revert those of us who survive to the status of betumored medieval peasants, starving and unwashed in a cold, dark and poisoned world. Even if the war were to stay conventional, the US still loses. Every. Single. Time.

The Baltics, Ukraine and Taiwan are not worth starting WW3 over. NATO should not have expanded to Russia's borders. A commitment must be given that NATO will expand no further. It may even be necessary to disband or shrink NATO. China cannot and will not be hemmed in. It must receive a guarantee from the US that America will not intervene during its annexation of Taiwan.

These are unpalatable prospects for a small nation such as Ireland. Our instincts are naturally supportive of smaller nations. But the reality is that while the US was wasting the past twenty years hunting for bearded nobodies in the caves of Afghanistan, Russia and China rose again as Great Powers with enhanced nuclear and conventional capabilities, with a shared common enemy. Russia and China are empires. Real, hardcore, old school empires -- the kind that would happily relocate or genocide the entire population of Ireland in the morning if it suited them. They also have unspeakable military capabilities and the nationalist zeal to use them.

The world map is set to be redrawn before the end of this decade, certainly by the end of the next one - and possibly a lot sooner. Democracies will fall. Alliances will be disbanded. And the world is set to be divided into three spheres of influence, all very different. If this isn't allowed to happen by means of diplomacy and a strategic US withdrawal from certain regions, there is going to be a world war that will make the last one seem mild by comparison.

I hope I scared the shight out of you.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/america-cannot-take-china-and-russia-simultaneously-194899

landofthetree · 23-11-2021 2:21pm

If you want world peace then cut all tariffs on trade to zero.

It worked in Europe.

brownbinman · 23-11-2021 2:31pm

sounds very 1984 with the 3 spheres of influence

Brussels Sprout · 23-11-2021 2:54pm

No offence OP but that's a load of nonsense. You're like a hype man for Russia and China - both of which have massive internal problems of their own.

It may even be necessary to disband NATO.

This was the point at which I rolled my eyes. As we all know when confronted by a bully the best action is to give them exactly what they want. That's how you definitely earn their respect.

Hoop66 · 23-11-2021 2:57pm

Russia may well have the largest tank army in the world, but it can only afford to take them out for a bit on a Sunday.

Brussels Sprout · 23-11-2021 3:04pm

Also that stat about the Chinese navy is technically correct but quite misleading:

https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/yes-china-has-the-worlds-largest-navy-that-matters-less-than-you-might-think/

SafeSurfer · 23-11-2021 3:17pm

One of the biggest threats to Russia is its dwindling population and the migration of Chinese to the Russian Far East.

Would it be in Russia’s national interest to have an ever more powerful China on its border, one which has resolved its South China Sea and Taiwan issue and can focus on expansion inland in Asia?

Manic Moran · 23-11-2021 3:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118211399#Comment_118211399

There are three caveats to that caveat. One is that the vast majority of those (fewer) major combatants were launched in this century, which cannot be said for the US fleet. The level of technology is not going to be higher than the US because of the age, but it is also far from the semi obsolescent force with which we have been dealing until about a decade ago. The second is that China is a regional power, that entire fleet can be focused on one area. The US has global commitments and will never be able to use the full weight of its fleet. The third is that the Chinese are still building rapidly.

China isn't there yet, but this assessment from the Japanese perspective is sobering.

https://csbaonline.org/uploads/documents/CSBA8211_%28Dragon_against_the_Sun_Report%29_FINAL.pdf

Ger Roe · 23-11-2021 3:28pm

Whatever about the exact scenario outlined by the OP, I have no doubt that the climate change crisis will result in world war at some stage, probably earlier than many would expect.

As land and natural resources get scarce, the grab will be on and the idea of solving the worlds problems for all of mankind won't stand a chance - it's not off to a great start at the moment anyway. It will be' might is right' and countries with little resources of their (our?) own and with a heavy reliance on other countries for energy provision and sustainable economic development, will loose out first.

When the going gets tough, those who have the energy and resources will keep them for themselves and if they need any more, they will go wherever needed to get them.

23-11-2021 3:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118211513#Comment_118211513

This won’t happen. The most climate change will do is cause higher levels of migration. No wars will happen. The op is talking about recent issues - not the future.

23-11-2021 6:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118211349#Comment_118211349

The fact that a Great Power might have internal problems has rarely stopped one from waging war. Revolutionary France had massive problems and conquered all of Europe a few years later. Russia in January 1942 was on its last legs, supposedly.

NATO cannot defend the Baltics. The alliance with the Baltic states is an unfortunate folly because it obliges the US to defend countries that it cannot defend and which are of no great geopolitical import to American national interests. I bet there are plenty of folk in defense departments all across the west who wish they could turn back time and undo the admission of the Baltic states into NATO.

It’s mighty stuff to stand up to a bully until he incinerates your people with a hypersonically delivered hydrogen bomb. This is the predicament.

23-11-2021 6:26pm

Russia and China are natural adversaries. However, as Zbigniew Brzezinski warned when analyzing threats to American security, “the most dangerous scenario,” would be “a grand coalition of China and Russia…united not by ideology but by complementary grievances.”

This is why it will be important for the US to make preemptive concessions: because in doing so, it removes these grievances, which should allow the natural competing interests of Russia and China to come to the fore once more.

Astartes · 23-11-2021 6:30pm

You can add Iran into the axis of Russia and China. They won't be buddy buddy but they have a common "enemy" in the EU and the US and would coordinate with each other to the detriment of "The West" whenever such opportunities arise.

BanditLuke · 23-11-2021 6:45pm

Putin and XI alliance is the worry tbh. I do believe we will see something similar to the picture the OP has painted within the next 3-5 years unfortunately.

The US in my view won't send forces to halt any invasion on Europe's Eastern flank and China will take Taiwan in the blink of an eye.

The US has many enemies but more interestingly has many more enemies who masquerade as friends, that will eventually be their downfall.

Hoop66 · 24-11-2021 8:09am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118212477#Comment_118212477

I didn't mean to demean the Russian people, comrade. Just pointing out that Russia cannot afford to run it's very large army on a war footing for very long.

ancapailldorcha · 24-11-2021 8:59am

Mod: Please do not paste videos and make sarcastic comments please. 2 posts have been removed.

Irish Praetorian · 24-11-2021 10:39am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118212387#Comment_118212387

Sorry the new quote system apparently doesn't allow me to split quotes.

Regardless, to address your final point, you seem to be forgetting that us poor benighted victims of said bully do have nuclear weaponry of our own capable of delivering a more than sufficient riposte. The strength of these authoritarian regimes is also their weakness - if you don't need to answer to the populace (at least directly) then at a certain point it becomes expedient to just lie or distract them, rather than endanger your own luxury.

24-11-2021 12:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118214927#Comment_118214927

You seem to assume that the decision to launch or not launch nuclear weapons would be logically made and deliberated. But this is almost certainly not going to be the case. The problem is one of unintentional escalation; the probability of a miscalculated launch by either party in an otherwise conventional kinetic war, either by a commander in the field, bad intelligence, human error, or the ambiguity of so many launch systems today which can launch either conventional or nuclear warheads. Someone in Poland launches a conventional missile from a launch system that is also capable of launching a nuke; what is the response from Russia going to be? What will the people at the other end assume is coming their way? The miniaturization of nuclear weapons is another problem -- as is the old problem of launch on warning. The fate of the world rests in the hands of deeply flawed people under immense pressure in crushing time constraints.

I think people don't think about nuclear war because they are frightened to, and understandably console themselves by saying it's not going to happen. Or they think this type of worry is consigned to history. It's hard to imagine a nuclear war in the days of Tic Tok, Netflix and iPhones. Yet those who look closely at these topics believe we have rarely been closer to disaster.

Brussels Sprout · 24-11-2021 12:07pm

Firstly I don't think that you can lump China and Russia together. From a foreign policy point of view the only thing that they have in common is that they both tend to veto the same things on the UN security council (they usually back up other authoritarian regimes). In terms of temperament they are poles apart. Russian foreign policy under Putin tends to be quite impulsive and reactionary. In contrast, China are always playing the long game. The idea that they would combine forces in a joint strike is .... not credible.

Now, will China eventually attack Taiwan? I believe they probably will in time. They are very conservative though. They are going to incrementally ratchet up the pressure over years and years. At the same time they will take soundings from the Americans to see what their appetite is like for actually defending the Taiwanese. The last thing that they would want to do is hitch their wagon to the unpredictable Russians. They are far too risk averse for something like that.

bob mcbob · 24-11-2021 12:50pm

This whole thread seems to be taking quite an old world approach to what is supposedly going to be a world war. Taking a look at the 10 Navies in the world for example gives -

1 USA, 2 Russia, 3 China, 4 Japan, 5 UK, 6 France, 7 India, 8 South Korea, 9 Italy, 10 Taiwan.

http://www.military-today.com/navy/top_10_navies.htm

I think that the Asian countries, in particular Japan & India, are unlikely to sit idly by as some of the scenario's above unfold

Hotblack Desiato · 24-11-2021 9:32pm

I find the attitude that it's the natural order of things that certain countries will forever be vassal states of Russia to be very disturbing.

It used to be the natural order of things that Ireland would forever be a vassal state of Britain.

Also OP, "hypersonic", "hypersonic", "hypersonic"🙄 - do you know how an ICBM works?

Larbre34 · 24-11-2021 9:39pm

Bring it on and lets have done with it. We could use a spring clean of certain regimes and population bottlenecks.

A bit like burning the chaff before ploughing you might say.

Manach · 24-11-2021 9:53pm

For those interested the issue was summed up in the book, Thucydides's Trap by Graham Allison. The author charts (but not exclusively) the similaries between Ancient Sparta and Athens and the 30 year that took place due to their differing ideologies and interests. It was a war driven by a series of interlocking alliances and fear that one side was becoming too strong and would dominate the other. A major war is not certain, but could never the less happen as events can spiral out of control. Ireland had weathered WW2 because of its isolation and homogenity, qualities no longer applicable today.

25-11-2021 7:29am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118218407#Comment_118218407

It is also disturbing when baby rabbits are eaten by foxes. The practice of geopolitics is deeply unfair.*

The Baltic nations hope that they will gain protection from Russia through the EU and NATO. They have put themselves in one camp of great powers, and the other camp is eyeing them greedily. It is because of their geographic situation: they are very strategically located, as are Poland, Belarus and Ukraine. Russia does not necessarily want to conquer these countries - it just wants them locked into its sphere, because it sees them as essential to its national security, much as the US would not have tolerated a soviet Mexico or Canada in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s.

This is mainly because the Russian heartland, from the current western borders of Belarus and Ukraine to the Urals, is militarily indefensible. Russia is actually a very hemmed-in country. A crown of ice covers its northern frontier, limiting access and navigation in the arctic winter. In Europe, the flat European plain is essentially an invasion highway to Moscow, and also (via Ukraine, especially eastern Ukraine) a direct route to cutting Russia off from the Caucuses and Black and Caspian seas. In addition, the Baltics and Denmark deprive coastal European Russia of Atlantic access year-round. In the Far East, Russia's only substantial port is Vladivostok, which needs to be kept free of ice in the winter months by means of ice-breaker ships; and Vladivostok is anyway largely ringfenced by American ally Japan a little further out. More broadly there are Russian fears of Chinese designs on Vladivostok and growing Chinese influence in the central Asian republics via the B&R Initiative, but these concerns have been deprioritized temporarily due to the mutual antagonism of Russia and China towards the US.

Neutral (but NATO friendly) Sweden and NATO member Denmark are also strategically located; together they block Russia's North Sea access to the Atlantic. This is why Russia looks enviously on Gotland and war-gamed a nuclear attack on Sweden in 2016, and why the Swedish government soon thereafter circulated a document called If Crisis or War Comes; it speaks of compulsive resistance, the duty to resist, conscription, and no surrender. Conscription was reintroduced there in 2017.

In the south-west, Russia is confined to the Black Sea and can access the Mediterranean only on the goodwill of Turkey, which literally holds the keys to the Mediterranean for Russia in the form of the Dardanelles and Bosporus. This is why NATO values Turkey so very much and why the Turko-Russian relationship is so important and historically antagonistic.

Anyway, I think it's a big mistake to assume that the current borders of Europe represent in any way a final settled status, or that there will ever be a final settled status. I personally wish that they did and they were. I would much rather that Russia had been handled differently and had been brought into the NATO and the EU fold somehow in the 90s. But perhaps that was never possible. Due to its geography, it's probable that Russia must be authoritarian and suspicious - that the authoritarian mindset is a consequence of having such an enormous, multi-ethnic imperial territory; and that the need to have an enormous territory stems from the geographically vulnerable position of the original Russian territory - Muscovy, which essentially remains the Russian heartland today. Hence Russia will always be a problem for its neighbors and its neighbors will always be a problem for it. It is a horrible geopolitical feedback loop that our lizard brains may not be able to overcome.

*As a small country, I fully expect that Ireland would fall back into the UK's orbit if the EU collapsed, or if America withdrew from the wider world. It would suck, it wouldn't be fair, but as mentioned, geopolitics isn't fair. Thankfully for Ireland, only the UK sees us as geopolitically important, and even then not as important as Norway and Iceland when the bombs start falling. In early 1940 notably the allies tried (and failed) to invade and occupy neutral Norway, and succeeded in invading and occupying neutral Iceland, rather than southern Ireland to secure the Atlantic (possibly because the UK was already in possession of Derry; incidentally this is one reason why Ireland frequently makes the list of most survivable countries -- we are not very important. And that is a good thing - though alas, this pertains only in a non-nuclear war. Ireland is very much a nuclear target in certain chilling scenarios.

Hotblack Desiato · 25-11-2021 11:00am

Russia does not necessarily want to conquer these countries - it just wants them locked into its sphere

So that's a yes - vassal states, not independent nations.

Remember that in WWII Ireland was considered by many to be essential for Britain's security, and Churchill at war's end said that he had considered invasion? Would that have been OK? for the greater good and all that - sure who cares about a few hundred thousand dead Irishmen in a war killing tens of millions?

The idea that Russia needs to control or influence territory beyond its borders is laughable. It has the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads in the world. The idea that NATO presents it with a threat of invasion is also laughable.

As regards access to the open sea - a lot of unfortunate geography there, but that's tough. It doesn't give them the right to control or invade Norway, Sweden, Turkey or anywhere else. You conveniently forgot to mention Kaliningrad, also.

PS - misrepresenting history is not big or clever. The allies did not "invade neutral Norway" they attacked German forces which had already occupied Norway.

25-11-2021 11:18am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118220022#Comment_118220022

You seem very angry and indignant at me. I am not pro-Russia or defending the bullying actions of great powers. I am trying to explain the Russian mentality, not justify it. Ireland was not invaded by the UK in WW2. Norway would have been invaded by the UK - for geographical reasons - only the Germans beat the allies to it. This isn't a misrepresentation of history - it is a fact. It was called Plan R 4.

What is laughable though is that you find the Russian mindset and posture laughable. It's obviously not laughable. If it were laughable, Crimea would still be with Ukraine, the Baltics wouldn't be scared out of their wits every time Russia war games close to their borders, and Ukraine wouldn't be worried about an invasion from the east. If it were laughable NATO wouldn't exist. I presume what you mean is that you don't like their attitude and think it's ridiculous. But what you think doesn't matter. What matters is what the Kremlin thinks.

I have not forgotten Kaliningrad. I mentioned the Suwalki Gap in my very first post on this thread. Kaliningrad is a poisoned chalice that's been handed around from one power to the next, always ultimately to the detriment of everyone. It is one of the most militarized places in Europe.

McGiver · 28-11-2021 1:59pm

Russia didn't rise. Russia stagnates and declines. Its terminal decline is coming with developed world moving away from fossil fuels.

China did rise.

Russia and China coordinating attacks is very unlikely.

28-11-2021 2:27pm

The elite in Russia are going to risk a war to ensure they don't get invaded? Isn't starting a war the greatest risk to that scenario?

Russia having more nukes is beyond irrelevant. Both sides have more than enough nukes to makes the world uninhabitable to anything bigger than cockroach for millennia.

And Hypersonic missiles mean the Russians live an 30 minutes longer.

China very much relies on world trade. Does this continue if they invade Taiwan?

However, I would VERY much like it if Europe were not dependent on Russia for energy. I can see Russia invading non NATO Ukraine and the West doing nothing

McGiver · 28-11-2021 7:40pm

Russia rising what a bollox.... 😁😁😁

Name some world class famous Russian products or companies. Apart from weaponry (Mig), WMD carriers or space industry etc. Anyone? Anything?

Now compare with China, US, Korea, Japan, Germany or even Italy.

McGiver · 28-11-2021 7:48pm

The idea that Russia needs to control or influence territory beyond its borders is laughable. It has the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads in the world. The idea that NATO presents it with a threat of invasion is also laughable.

This exactly.

This "We're defending ourselves from external threat" has been the Russian doctrine, propaganda and of course a lie for the last 300 years. It's absolutely laughable and of course a nonsense.

The Russian elites have successfully deployed this mirage of an external threat to keep their own population in fear, under control and in a serf status, for centuries. Ideology in Kremlin changes, this doctrine doesn't -be it Tzars, Commissars or Presidents.

Anyone who ever speaks this "defence" argument in relation to Russia is always confronted with the following question from me - so how did Russia acquire the largest territory on Earth? By "defending" itself? Yeah right 😁

If you defend yourself you end up as Switzerland not as Russia!

Hotblack Desiato · 29-11-2021 2:14am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118220120#Comment_118220120

I abhor both nonsense and the doctrine of "might is right" which leaves little in your posts to admire.

Manic Moran · 30-11-2021 12:02am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118220120#Comment_118220120

I suspect you're overstating the Suwalki gap problem. Kaliningrad has only one motor rifle division, with an additional tank regiment, enough to put forward some spoiling attacks but not much more if they plan on keeping most of Kaliningrad oblast under their control. It also presumes that Belarus is fine with the Russians launching an attack through their territory, a situation I'm not so sure applies. There have been recent differences of opinion between Lukoshenko and Putin, they're not as close as they used to be maybe a decade ago. Even if the gap was somehow closed, NATO forces are perfectly capable of punching through. There's a reason why the major force buildup is in Poland, south of the gap, and not in the Baltic states themselves. Yes, I know the gap is popular with analysts looking to make a splash, but it's not as if it's something which is catching NATO unawares.

AMKC · 30-11-2021 9:55pm

I see the USA were having war games in the South China Sea and just completed 10 days of military exercises with asian allies in that region to deter China from attacking Taiwan. Some here say they might not bother but they are not doing all them drills for nothing. I personally hope no big wars happen for at least 60 years then after that I am not as bothered. I am sure there will be changes and the odd spat but hopefully no WW3 or Nukes fired. That's the last thing the World needs right now or anytime really.

bob mcbob · 01-12-2021 3:12pm

Japan making their position clear on any threat to Taiwan (behind pw)

Japan would treat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as a crisis for its own security, the country’s former prime minister said in the latest indication that Tokyo would take part in any armed defence of the self-governed island.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/taiwan-invasion-would-threaten-japan-shinzo-abe-tells-china-jvbgt3knc

Dubh Geannain · 02-12-2021 10:08am

Since Taiwan doesn't have diplomatic ties with a lot of countries China has taken the opportunity to repatriate them and have done so in the hundreds. Probably a scary prospect for any Taiwanese abroad.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-59486286

Hotblack Desiato · 02-12-2021 10:20am

That's a very strange use of the word "repatriate".

Dubh Geannain · 02-12-2021 11:08am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118255530#Comment_118255530

Haha, good spot. My sloppy use. I should have said what the article did which is "extradited". Which basically means the charges are arising from the Chinese side be they legitimate or otherwise so China is actively looking for these people to be sent to them for sentencing. That's an even scarier prospect than what I first implied.

Repatriating, which I used would have implied that they came to the attention of authorities in other jurisdictions and sent back to the native country which as far as Taiwanese are concerned while abroad is recognised as China for the most part but if China haven't been actively looking for them they've a better chance in this instance of getting sent to Taiwan.

Bass Reeves · 06-12-2021 11:23pm

OP

While Russia may seem to have a large conventional army it is technically way behind the US. The US has certain military advantages that take a large section of conventional armies out of the equation. While it struggles in conventional conflicts ( Afghanistan and Iran) where it needs feet on the ground in a war where technology was important it would be a very potent force.

While the Chinese and Russian Navy may seem potent the US has more aircraft carriers and nuclear submarine's than both of these put together. The US's ability to strike from distance would be a serious problem for either Country. It airforce is twice the size of both combined. In Europe the US would be backed by the UK, France and Italy if the chips were down as well as Turkey. In Asia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan would provide backup, as well as India and Australia.

If Trump was.in power Putin could do what he wants, China would be another issue. Biden is a different beast. The question is how far will he be willing to go. But if the US decided to go toe to toe It could nearly best them by themselves.

techman1 · 07-12-2021 12:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118212554#Comment_118212554

probably putin might be able to take ukraine but at a high cost , however the baltic countries are now EU members, surely France and Germany and UK would have to intervene then , the US would also be forced into intervention. The US could not sit out a war in Europe, this is not Afghanistan or Iraq.

I just cannot see it happening, way too high a risk for Putin, its not soviet times now and the russian people are not going to want to fight in a major war in Europe just to take back soviet era booty, With such high stakes nuclear weapons could be used , Putin is not that stupid

Hotblack Desiato · 07-12-2021 2:11pm

More to the point, they are NATO members.

Blazer · 07-12-2021 2:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118281242#Comment_118281242

Not only that but all 66 approx of the US's submarines can pop up outside Beking and fire off a few nuclear rockets. They are also all nuclear powered and thus more advanced than Russia's and China's diesel subs. Then you start to include Japan and other US allies and all those subs add up.

On the China side only 6 of their 76 subs can actually reach the US coast. So if it ever went nuclear China would be basically wiped off the map. So would a lot of other countries from the fallout so in reality its a no-win scenario and China are too clever to go nuclear regardless of how bad they want Taiwan.

Bass Reeves · 07-12-2021 3:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118284631#Comment_118284631

The US can use those nuclear powered subs to deliver conventional explosive munitions as well. Those submarines could cripple the Chinese or Russian navy, similar with US aircraft carriers. They can stand off and use there aircraft to sink either navy.

Even when you go to tank warfare while the Russian army may have the larges number the quality is questionable. About 60%, are 1970's or earlier model tanks. It was only starting to bring it new modern tank ( the Armata) into the use last year. The best tank in the world is the German Leopard A2. Accross Europe there is about a couple thousand of them. Germany had 350+, Greece and Finland nearly 200 each, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Poland, The Netherlands, Croatia etc all have them. Turkey has as many as Greece.

France has 350 Leclerc's and the UK the same number of Chieftains. Both nearly as good as the Amata. The US tank the Abrams is ahead of the Amata and it is the only US tank and it has over 8k if them.

The only military advantage that China and Russia have no er the west is in manpower. But this can be equated to when the British used maxim machine guns in Africa against native peoples. It would be similar now with the AiR, Naval and conventional technologies that the West has compared to Russia or China

AMKC · 07-12-2021 3:40pm

That's good so no WW3 anytime soon so good.

AMKC · 07-12-2021 3:40pm

AbusesToilets · 07-12-2021 6:15pm

The larger danger from a potential conflict would be for unrestricted cyber attacks. There aren't the same conventions covering those as there are for regular means of warfare. You could have large facets of modern society severely damaged or destroyed at the speed of light, Banking records wiped out, electrical grids ruined, telecommunications knocked out. Potentially with much graver long term impacts than bombs being dropped.

RandomViewer · 07-12-2021 6:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118211361#Comment_118211361

Dry Sundays, wee bit of rain and it's Dampstart and a rag

AMKC · 20-12-2021 9:53pm

I see more sabre rattling by Russia recently. It has two Nuclear bombers pertoling the skies of Belarus and they were using drones to shot down other drones over Crimea but yet Putin claimes he has no interest in invading Ukraine but then why have all them Russian troops on the border. I think he thinks Biden is a week president and this might have been easier but he is wrong. Still it could be worse. You can't help but wonder what Trump would have said and done if this had of happened under him and would Putin would have assured Trump nothing was going on but then invade quickly anyway or not.

22-12-2021 2:11am

WW3 isn't on just yet. The OP is in dreamland if thinking the 60's and presumably Cuban missile crisis was the closest the world ever got to Nuclear war. It was then as it is now, posturing. As in the Lemony Snickets title, it'll be a "series of unfortunate events" that brings Armageddon rather than expansionist aims towards the independent states of Ukraine or Taiwan. What's occurring in the world today is similar to what went on during other periods of history, taking advantage of situations. A tank is also something other than a tank, it's a target. It's a mistake to attribute menace to one side only.

Sam Russell · 22-12-2021 11:18am

I think you are underestimating the Cuba crisis. It was a very serious threat, and JFK and his brother were deadly serious in stopping missiles getting into Cuba. Apparently, Robert Kennedy, AG, grabbed the Russian Ambassador to the USA by the tie and pulled him towards himself and said 'If you think we are not serious, you are much mistaken' (or words to that effect - which the Ambassador was in no doubt that he was in earnest). What the Kennedy brothers did not know at the time was the missiles were already there.

Berlin was another flash point, but not quite as serious.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Checkpoint_Charlie

There have been quite a few standoffs. Hungary, Czechoslovakia, etc.

techman1 · 22-12-2021 2:06pm

I can't understand what Putin would get from invading, it would be a bloody war even if the west did not intervene. Then afterwards Russia would be a real pariah state, then there would be a huge build up of troops and hardware by NATO in eastern Europe, the very thing that Putin is trying to stop.

Putin is a very clever man , this is just a bargaining chip to get Europe to pull back from Ukraine, to get long term commitments on gas purchases from Russia which Europe badly needs and a relaxation of sanctions.

He is playing the trump game by moving the argument into his area by ratcheting up the pressure and then bargaining back from that extreme position rather than the original position before the troop build up

But because of his actions in Syria and Crimea he has to be taken seriously , he is not just talk but also action, Biden by comparison is a very weak president he is now reeping the whirlwind from the ignominious withdrawal from Afghanistan

Sam Russell · 22-12-2021 3:17pm

What is a world war?

There currently is a state of war in many parts of the world, and as good as war in others.

Afghanistan is still effectively at war even though USA and allies have withdrawn. Syria has had a civil war for over a decade. Iraq is the same. Israel is also involved in a civil war (of sorts). Libya, Ethiopia, Somalia, DRC, Nigeria, Southern Sudan are all involved in war. China is involved in Tibet, HK, plus some internal provinces, and is threatening Taiwan. Russia is threatening Ukraine, and stability in Eastern Europe. Belarus is in turmoil due to corrupt elections. Myanmar and Thailand are both military regimes, involved in combatting insurrections. South and Central America has many despotic governments, which is close to civil war. Those are just the ones I can think of from the top of my head.

How many more need to start wars before it is called a world war?

The Coming World War

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