Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2021 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58 · 25-11-2021 8:57am

UKMO has totally eased off the stormy weather moving inland, more in line with the ECMWF now, ARPEGE also toned down, Hi Res models showing very windy onshore winds along N counties, perhaps quite windy along the E for a time, windy along coasts and blustery across the country with some squally showers.

ECMWF and GFS fairly consistent the last few runs.

Meteorite58 · 25-11-2021 11:21am

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ICON 06Z has produced its strongest wind chart yet this morning for Northern counties and showing very windy down through Eastern counties, AROME rolling out, will be interesting.

pauldry · 25-11-2021 12:36pm

Met Eireann fairly bullish in their outlook this morning. Maybe they looked at ICON. If this storm doesn't happen which is 50/50 there's no real weather for most of December bar the Southwest mild and very mild blandness. Could be 16c some day in December this year. Christ!

esposito · 25-11-2021 1:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118220215#Comment_118220215

Let’s hope it’s not Christmas Day although knowing our luck…

Gonzo · 25-11-2021 1:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118220215#Comment_118220215

First half of December is likely to be bland and either mild or exceptionally mild. Hopefully we will see more interesting changes into the second half of the month. There is also the possibility that the Atlantic may become fairly active for early December but that remains to be seen.

Meteorite58 · 25-11-2021 3:42pm

The French models, ICON and Euro4 all suggesting more widespread warnings, and would suggest possible Orange warnings in Northern counties including the NW bringing the stronger winds more inland yet ECM and GFS still looking less windy and keeping higher gusts to the coasts or coastal areas???

Unusual to see such a difference between the models.

pauldry · 25-11-2021 4:21pm

It's going to the wire.

Personally I think Dublin is in for a shock. Gusts of 100kph can cause a lot of damage there. However even a slight shift East and I'll be eating humble pie but a lot of forecasted gales are in Irish Sea

Oscar Bravo · 25-11-2021 4:42pm

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Donegal

Through Friday afternoon, evening and night, northerly winds will reach mean speed of 45 to 65 km/hr with gusts of 90 to 110 km/hr with significantly higher gusts at times along north facing coasts and on the Inishowen Peninsula.
Possible wave and spray overtopping along north facing coasts at times of High tide on Friday night.
Valid: 15:00 Friday 26/11/2021 to 06:00 Saturday 27/11/2021
Issued: 15:47 Wednesday 24/11/2021

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Mayo, Sligo

Through Friday afternoon, evening and night, northerly winds will reach mean speed of 45 to 65 Km/hr with gusts of 90 to 110 km/hr
Possibility of wave and spray overtopping along north facing coasts at times of High tide on Friday night.
Valid: 15:00 Friday 26/11/2021 to 05:00 Saturday 27/11/2021

Tyrone212 · 25-11-2021 7:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118221402#Comment_118221402

The high res models would be the form horse at this range surely? The warning for Donegal mentions gusts of 90 to 110kmh but significantly higher gusts in the Inishowen peninsula. I never saw a warning worded like that before. Significantly higher than the top end of their predicted gusts. Unusual not give a range of gusts like normal, must be high uncertainty in Glasnevin to have it worded like that.

Any predictions for Malin Head max gust?

ascophyllum · 25-11-2021 8:01pm

Very benign forecast just now on RTE, no mention of potentially damaging gusts in the Northwest from an unusual direction? Even the lightest model shows Northerly winds in excess of 90km/hr. For some folk in Donegal, this is the only forecast they'll see and they'll likely take no action tomorrow in the daylight hours.

JanuarySnowstor · 25-11-2021 8:01pm

Bitterly cold today and by tomorrow evening it will feel really arctic!

Snow risk looks to be high enough to me tomorrow evening across a swath of the country before the high nudges across on Saturday. We don't often get a gale force Northerly along with -8 uppers!

Donegal Ken · 25-11-2021 8:57pm

Depending on the situation tomorrow morning with the forecasting models Met Éireann may issue further warnings or updated warnings.

adocholiday · 25-11-2021 9:46pm

Windy.com model summary showing a fair variation in my part of Wicklow. ECM still showing a non-event, bit of a spread across the rest.

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Meteorite58 · 25-11-2021 9:54pm

ECM even less windy again for Ireland on the 12Z and lighter also across the UK whereas the GFS, WRF, AROME, UKMO, and EURO4 are much stronger for there. Either ECM is King and the others are all well off the mark or the ECM is having a bad one. Interesting to see which ones read this the best .

I was wondering if the fact that the weather has been so benign for so long that the models actually struggle a bit with such a different set of data or perhaps that the weather is coming more from the North driven by the Jet in a cold airmass has them so different at this stage.

I see ARPEGE brings the center down as low as 970 hPa, GFS 972hPa, UKMO 975 hPa and ECMWF 977 hPa also the ECM just not showing the gradient as tight as the others. Also see the Met Office has introduced Orange warnings for the Eastern half of Scotland and parts of NE UK( not showing as strong on the ECM )

Will see.

Fri Met Office

Sat Met Office

Meteorite58 · 26-11-2021 12:00am

Considerable Windchill over the next two days , biting cold raw wind. Plenty of CAPE over the seas sending in big blustery showers of rain and hail, charts showing some accumulations of wet snow on high ground especially in the N, NW, W. During the frontal passage and during the large squally showers I would think driving conditions could prove difficult .Would think we could see some thunderstorms tomorrow more so around the coasts, could have a fair bit of activity down along the Irish sea.

Meteorite58 · 26-11-2021 12:16am

Strong mean winds especially on coasts for a considerable amount of time, already windy here on the Kerry coast. Think that ARPEGE 12Z is a bit less windy for Ireland then earlier as is the GFS and ICON more in line now with the ECMWF.

AROME Hi Res showing the tell tale signs of very gusty squally showers moving inland, showing Kerry with some high gusts at times also, in general most counties experiencing some strong winds /squally and at times wintry showers at times. Nothing like the pasting they are going to get over in the UK though. Strongest winds on NW, N and NE coasts. Will be interesting to see how windy it gets down along the E.

UK looks set to get a right battering. It might be a named storm but storm forced winds now look reserved mainly for the UK.

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pauldry · 26-11-2021 1:30am

Up on 87kph in Malin already

70kph here in Sligo

Wind sounds funny. Haven't heard it in ages. Some are in for a nasty shock tomorrow. ECM not on it. Think ICON and Met Eireann are

Meteorite58 · 26-11-2021 9:29pm

Wild night here in Kerry near the coast. Plenty more wind to come in next few hours. Big squally showers set to continue for a time more so in the W of the country. The East of the country set to get windier overnight.

Meteorite58 · 26-11-2021 9:48pm

Models showing the frontal passage early Sunday morning come up against the cold airmass and producing wintry precipitation, looks very sleety but some wet snow also possible for a time and because it falls during the night might see a bit on more elevated ground for a short time on Sunday.