What are your thoughts on the fertiliser price s for 2022

I bought a few ton that will cover most of first spread around mid March, gona wait and see after that. Have a feeling with prices so high, demand will soften. Please god tho, theyl be able to import more by then

Hard to know. Speaking to a feed merchant sales man last week. He expects rations Togo up by 40/ton between now and early January and he dose not think it will stop there. That will put rations heading for 350/ton in bulk and lucky bags will be heading for 400/ton

I cannot see supply appearing in May and even if some dose it unlikely to be much cheaper. Any manufactured will be with expensive gas. Hard to see gas prices softening before May/June next year. Even then it will be dependent on the new gas line opening in Germany.

Supply may be as much of a problem as price. Slight downsizing should be considered. A 10%reduction in demand will lead to 20% less grass demand.

Another factor to consider is ration prices. Rations priced could be under fierce pressure by early/mid summer next year. By that stage yields for 2022 harvest should be fairly well known. Southern hemisphere crop will be know and projected shortage will be known.

Any plan should seriously consider herd reduction as can people cope with fertlizer prices being 2-2.5 times last spring price and rations at 400+/ton. Grass could still be the cheapest feed

Unless co-ops/merchants pay for loads of fertiliser now at current prices to importers for delivery next spring their won't be any great quantity of fertiliser to be got, logistics even where its sourced but can't be gotten into the country due to shipping shortages is another huge factor.....

The haste at which glanbia are trying to get their deal done for the co-op buyout I reckon is because of the **** hitting the fan next spring re fertilizer availability on their part

Have heard of one big player in market yesterday with a big quantity of fertiliser sourced but getting it into country is going to be an issue ….also urea not going to be too plentiful

Heard the journal podcast from a few days ago. The reporter mentioned the eu possibly stepping in as it could end up being a food security issue.

Another thing is that we got paid a good bit of money over the last two years for beam and a beef finisher payment. Maybe the government will step in and give a few pound to help pay for fertilizer. A couple of thousand would make up the price increase for most beef farmers and sure the milk cheque will keep the dairy lads in fertilizer 😜.

We'll go over ourselves and get it while the cows are dried off.

Globally stored grain is very high, as high as seen in many years.

The big difference now is that China has gone from a small hoarder 20 years to the largest and the rest of the world is at 20 year lows.

Nitrogen Fertilizer will be got. It'll be bloody dear though. It may well be a bit limited in purchase. Lads instead of having a load sit in their yard might have to get what they need for a month, shake and get more dropped out again.

This was a major issue for the EU months ago, it's been ignored, along with the gas crisis Which is part of it.

Maybe they'll get around to it for next winter.

There is good reason to think that the Summer will see prices dropping for inputs and that will feed in to fertilizer.

As bad as it is here, the global milk giants of Pakistan and India are buying Urea at a 1000 euro a tonne, the State is paying for iIt but expect to be short.

Beef giants like Brazil are being deeply affected too.

Bad here but worse elsewhere.

In a normal year, but if dedicated fertilizer ships can't be secured to shift fertilizer all options will have to be looked at....

People should pull the trigger, are you in Bother?

That is shocking

Urea could be bough for 780 about 6 weeks ago ….from what I’m hearing locally fertiliser (certain amount )will be got but payement terms are going to be as good as upfront …merchants don’t want to get stung nor be treated like an interest free bank …I’d be expecting prices to harden further as fertiliser bought by merchants etc over next while most likely for use from March on

Seems the trade are expecting dairy usage to remain about the same, but tillage to drop around 20-30%.