Share Picks 2021 - Thread banned users post #1

I don't believe the Chinese story for two reasons. To explain why, just look at two of it's neighbours Japan and Korea. Both of these countries have already achieved what China is supposed on the verge of achieving - become a fully developed country. Now look at how Japan and Korea did it -

• Consumer consumables (cars, electronics, etc) made by local companies which started out cheap and cheerful but reliable then went up the value chain (Japan - Toyota, Nissan, Honda, JVC, Panasonic, etc, ) (Korea - Hyundai, Samsung, Kia, etc) What are the Chinese equivalents. China is now the workshop of the world but mainly manufacturing products for Western companies. As costs rise, China is as vulnerable to offshoring now as the West was 10/20 years ago.
• During their rise, both Japan (70's/80's) and Korea(90's) had significant budget surplus's. China in contrast has been funding their current rise thru debt - they have huge debts. So their current model (funding growth thru debt) cannot last much longer. How is their economic model going to adapt as relations with the West deteriorates and all Xi cares about is hanging on to power.

I am certainly not a bull on how this is going to play out.

China versus Ireland. Using USA Dollar $ to Compare

Debt per Citizen - China $3,635 Ireland $49,294

Debt as a % of GDP - China 45.58% Ireland 67.96%

Have a look yerself BB.

China Debt Clock - National debt of China (worlddebtclocks.com)

This is the bit I like;

If you spend $1,000,000 a day it would take you 30912 years and 0 month to spend all China debt.

I'm looking at transferring my Stocks and Shares ISA to one that'll allow US stocks to be held. Any recommendations of brokers that are good value? I'm looking at IG, does anyone on here use them and if so would you recommend?

Sold about €2k of Teledoc shares yesterday - the only bloody thing that's up today

Only 1 in the green today, a vix etf. But on the down side im still a shedload down on it overall

I thought those vix ETFs always go down over time? Didn't think they were meant as a long term hold

So you're saying if I can identify what will become the biggest company in the world I'll do alright?

Sounds easy

What do you suggest?

The point I'm making is you have to put a value on stocks first regardless of the growth rate of its revenue. I'm not saying its easy. Far from it. But at least, that's the starting point.

If you can be sure to a high degree of certainty that a company will be there in 10 or 20 years and you can project out its cash flows in those years, then you can make a fair stab at what its stock is worth.

In a nutshell, you'll only make money by buying cheap stocks.

I have looked at 100s of stocks and I honesty believe there is no value there at the moment. During the last Covid dip, I bought as I saw value, but that opertunity is long gone.

I'm waiting for the next one.

Didi went ahead with an IPO when they were told not to, this is them getting punished for that.

Ok you accept that if any Chinese company goes against the wishes of the CCP, they will be punished. Today Didi, tomorrow ????

The rest of you post about scandals in the US market is totally irrelevant. Buying shares is caveat emptor.

If your BABA "conviction" is based on your comments in this post, then I leave you to it and wish you all the best. You will either be very rich or very poor

It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow - some initial reports from SA suggesting that the new variant is very mild in terms of symptoms - if true, this could actually herald the beginning of the end of the pandemic IMO rather than being the bad news it is currently perceived as.

You’ve completely contradicted yourself there though - the fact that the US has not broken up big tech is because it doesn’t interfere in the free market in the way that China is happy to.

I truly hope BABA turns out well for you and I will delighted for you if it does, but I have to say that personally my number one, most absolutely unbreakable rule is to never, ever, ever buy stock in any Chinese company.