Winter 2021/2022 - General Discussion

Is that Kermit's ride??

Absolute nightmare scenario for a sheep farmer that also works a 9 to 5.

As a snow lover I can say that there is only a tiny chance of snow next week. Only on the highest ground if conditions are right. It will feel more seasonable though, so a few frosty nights in store at least.

ROGER J Smith. Has another well put together winter forecast/prediction on the netweather winter forecast thread.

Over all better than average chance for wintry periods.

Hpefully the east canadian storms this autumn akin to 1982 is has the the same outcome as that majestic winter for us this winter..history does have a habit of repeating itself. Weather too?? :).

We're still in Autumn...

Dew points are nice and low but I had to look twice at that 😂

You have to wonder if there would be a winter season repeat of Arwen (no two storms are ever going to be identical of course, but sometimes a season has tendencies), if so, it could be quite something with any colder temperatures that might accompany it.

The general consensus about Arwen seems to be that it was the strongest northerly wind event of recent years, only Feb 1969 seems to have had a stronger northerly type of wind gust. And that's hardly recent although I can still recall a few things about that winter, it had a lot of retrograde flow patterns in eastern North America too. Big coastal storms, long periods of blah mild northeast flow where I was in those days (Toronto).

The repeating tendency has a bit of a 30-day peak in frequency, so would be on the lookout for model forecasts in two or three weeks that might be picking up a second big northerly outbreak.

Second time around Ireland might be more generally in the firing line too, only Ulster and a few parts of Connacht really saw a whole lot out of this event.

Lovely to hear from you Graces7! Hope you're keeping well.

The GFS 6Z is certainly looking to tap into it to start winter off with a bang!

Doesn't quite get a proper Scandi high but shows height rises in the region and we get a gentle easterly flow for a couple of days yet for such a benign pattern, the raw modelled temperatures show minima getting down to -14C in the Scottish highlands and widespread frost everywhere. If we got such a pattern in the past few years, we'd be lucky to get below freezing or -5C @ 850hPa, January 2021 easterly comes to mind.. or November 2018. The atmosphere is certainly in a much better state this year and primed for severe cold northerlies or easterlies, just a case of getting the blocking over Greenland or Scandinavia as usual.

Coming up to the 9th anniversary of That ECM of December 2012 too.. an unlikely scenario anyway.

I fail to see any sort of signal for the mild or very mild weather some keep saying. Looks largely average to me with changeable polar maritime conditions - 1 day relatively mild, next day chilly sort of affair. Might get stormy the odd time.

Wow, I was delighted to see "latest poster" Graces7. Jumped straight into the thread to say :Great to hear from you, hope all is well, and keep us posted on how you fare with the weather over the next few weeks! Love reading about you being snug as a bug in a rug, listening to the howling wind outside.

edit: clarity in last sentence

greetings from Sweden.It had been a really mild autumn in most parts until last week when winter arrived with a bang.As Sryan mentioned we have had exceptionally low temps the last few nights in the north and now it's pretty much winter in the whole of the country.The south is seeing the worst of the snowfall at the moment with 20-30cms of snow on the ground in many areas and with plenty more to come this week.We have some snow here too where I live in Norra Gotaland but have missed out on the heavier snow so far.All of the local lakes have been frozen solid for a week now and it's the earliest I have seen that happen since the bitter winter of 2010 when we had snow on the ground from the 1st of November till the 15th of April.There definitely does seem to be much colder air to the north this year to tap into and once the northerly wind blows the temps drop like a stone here.good to see some of the higher ground getting snow in Ireland this week.hopefully the rest of the country will see some as well before the winter is out

This week looks pretty wet for Sligo.

Could see the lake overflow once again as 80 to 100mm possible before this time next week.