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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    It's not nonsense when it is setting government policy. The trouble with the models is that even the best case scenarios are way out and you might want to revisit your understanding of the word possible for the pessimistic projections. Now that would not be an issue if it was just an extra piece of data but it's the only piece of data the government is using. Their variables for hospitalisations are over double actual HSE data and it is questionable whether they should be doing such long range projections off static data. Your last line sums up one of the major criticisms of epidemiological modelling; it looks at disease only but does not take human behaviour into account the way other types of models do.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,329 ✭✭✭prunudo


    But with context that Doctor is saying, young patients only have mild symptoms (fact), older unvaccinated paitents will have severe illness (opinion). So appears the original context was correct for now until more data is available.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,548 ✭✭✭Leftwaffe


    BNO Newsroom calling someone out for stating the truth by labelling it as an untruth. Mad for fear.



  • Registered Users Posts: 31,067 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    @NIMAN wrote

    A thought came to me today when reading an article about children needing to get the vaccine.

    It basically said that a large cohort of society isn't vaccinated, that its rife in schools and as long as they aren't vaccinated, we are going to struggle to contain the virus.

    Now, thats all well and good and on a medical level they are more than likely correct.

    I haven't seen any epidemiologic analysis to support this, either that's it's particularly "rife" in primary schools or that if kids get vaccinated we'll achieve herd immunity (which seems to be what you're suggesting, unless you meant something else by "contain").

    From what I recall of the data, there are large numbers of outbreaks in hospitals and nursing homes too. Are those going to disappear if we vaccinate primary school kids? What about crèches and other pre-school environments?

    I've no ideological opposition to vaccinating kids but to think that it's the last barrier in the way to the sunlit uplands of COVID-free hospitals is magical thinking.

    Relatedly, I recall that when anyone raised this issue of kids potentially being a reservoir of infection a number of people absolutely lost their sh!t.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    The original variant was less transmissible and vaccinating three-quarters of the population as we have today would likely have stopped it.

    That's a fierce lot of conjecture and I'd like to see citations on that. IMHO there's no way in hell you can contain a virus with vaccinating three quarters of the population with a leaky vaccine, that certainly reduces transmission, but doesn't stop it nearly enough. Especially when you have asymptomatic infections that can spread it, unvaccinated reservoirs of virus around the world and in close quarters environments like schools.

    We stopped smallpox because you only became infectious when obvious symptoms presented and the vaccine was much less leaky and resistance persisted longer, so you could ringfence outbreaks when and where they occurred on top of wider vaccination drives. On the transmissibility front smallpox had an R0 between 2 and 6, so higher than covid. Transmissibility it seems is less of an issue if you have a different disease profile and less leaky vaccines. Even so it took the guts of a century to irradicate it.

    To be fair the vaccines we have were developed and produced in record time, an incredible achievement, but their main aim/result was a serious impact on lowering serious illness and death, which is fantastic. Plus covid is a coronavirus and before this pox came along there had been no successful vaccine against that type of virus.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,133 ✭✭✭✭iamwhoiam


    Definitely not the fault of the vaccinators and I made sure to say that to the exhausted lady who gave it to me

    In all fairness I was 3.5 hours in a queue in the freezing cold and didnt see a single person give out to staff there . We did have the odd moan among ourselves and a whinge about the HSE and their scandalous handling of City West appointments yesterday . They gave appointments and at the same time advertised for walk ins . Gave appointments to people who were not yet 5 months past the 2 nd dose and after queuing for two hours were told to go home .



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Hospitals at 566 this morning, up 30.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,278 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Hopefully it’ll hold out and not go over 600 in the morning



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,265 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    Omicron is the new show in town. I think it’s early days & what is available publicly might not be all relevant data. Then again certain countries might know more than others through other channels. South Africa is in their summer also which means data might not directly correlate with a European winter. Coupled with demographics of populations, the situation isn’t clear.

    If it does turn out that the infection is less severe - that is great news and a good outcome. I really think going forward the older and most vulnerable should be the groups vaccinated. There should be a strategic shift towards therapeutics where needed for the rest of the population as they come on stream.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    Darn it. Really need that headed the opposite direction with the Xmas season upon us. The hospital's will need all the capacity they can in the coming weeks.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    It's been like a yo yo for months. I don't track this in any detail but Sunday does seem to rise, probably because of fewer discharges. Last weekend for example it went from 640 to 669.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,560 ✭✭✭bennyl10




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Project Fear is in full swing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Hospital numbers virtually always rise at the weekend. Very few discharges.

    It'll be up again tomorrow morning, but if it stays under 600 it's a great result.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    Not really Seamus. We need those numbers way way down below 300 if possible. I'm not liking the look of the hospital situation at present really was hoping for the boosters to have a greater effect.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    What has been the rate of growth over the last two weeks? What is the profile of those in hospital? Age? Vaccination status?



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,211 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Hospital numbers are down 15% in one week from last Sunday. That's a big and positive move. Why does everything have to be catastrophised? Your post is seriously of the "glass is half empty" variety.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    Fear Seamus, pure fear. I'm terrified of this thing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    If you're under 70, healthy and vaccinated, your odds of being severely impacted by Covid are absolutely tiny. You're statistically more likely to be hit by car.

    If you're over 70 but still vaccinated, it's no more dangerous really than most other illnesses you might pick up at that age.

    No need for the fear.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,169 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    What are your thresholds of concern though? You sound a bit Chicken Licken to be honest. The sky is always falling.

    Most over 60s and a lot of over 50s will be boostered by Dec 31. Our hospital numbers are way way down on the peaks of last winter.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users Posts: 989 ✭✭✭Stormyteacup


    How have hospital admissions been this last week? Are they noticeably down?

    I don’t follow them, but it seems to have been the case in past waves that when hospital numbers were reducing like last week we had a period of reducing admissions ahead of that reduction.

    If admissions are falling it’s great news. If they are steady then they’ve either just given the system some temporary breathing room with targeted discharges - or perhaps with boosters the average hospital stay is lowering?

    Little was made of the recent reduction in hospital numbers. My thought is that it is because the authorities are expecting them to fill up again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,357 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    That doesn't seem to be our public health message unfortunately. But as a nation we're not very mature. Full of people who need to mammied.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Yeah, hospital admissions are still high, but down around 10% week on week.

    Likely a combination of stalled/dropping infection rates and increasing booster rates.

    On paper the indicators say we should expect at least another week of strong declining hospital numbers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 495 ✭✭Láidir agus Dílis


    A great 'result' if under 600 tomorrow morning? It's not a football match that finishes tomorrow morning.



  • Registered Users Posts: 989 ✭✭✭Stormyteacup


    Well that’s positive. Surely with a trend of falling admissions and booster program moving along and no current growth in cases we are doing fine as is.

    But leaves me wondering why then are they considering further restrictions - assume the fear of last Christmas is uppermost and they’d like hospital numbers to be right down ahead of it.

    There must be multiples of lasts years incoming travellers for Christmas and less restrictions on socialising this year - a recipe for over-overcrowding in hospitals.



  • Registered Users Posts: 495 ✭✭Láidir agus Dílis


    'You're statistically more likely to be hit by a car.'

    Could you back up another random statement with some facts and figures please.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,169 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Dr. Gabrielle Colleran was excellent on the Brendan O'Connor show earlier.

    She was slating the western world for hoarding vaccines when the poorer countries couldn't get them. She got quite upset about it.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,169 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    She wasn't talking about South Africa specifically. They are still talking about vaccine equity if you listen in.

    if we don’t address the enormous global inequity in access to Covid-19 vaccines, other variants will emerge.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



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