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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 67 ✭✭HereinBray


    Jesus Wept - how old are you? So you don't agree - get over it. Posting like this makes you look pathetic.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,663 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    That literally proves my point. Boosters were administered before the models were even made, so 'nothing changes' was literally impossible. The models weren't fit for purpose on production yet were used to push government to act. Madness.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,120 ✭✭✭Ger Roe


    It's not exclusively related to the covid situation. We have a very long standing tradition of electing and accepting political reps who are unaccountable and not responsible for anything. So much so, that we accept them setting up committees, advisory groups, tribunals, citizens assemblies ... anything to distance themselves from decision making and so they retain the ability to blame someone else under the guise of 'best advice' or 'expert opinion' received.

    A recent 6 0ne TV News interview with Stephen Donnelly was a classic example of how to play this move.... he said that he agreed with NPHET advice and widely supported it.... while completely avoiding several attempts by the interviewer to get him to say that it was now going to be DOH policy under his direction, as minister for health.

    He thought he had skillfully retained his option to distance himself from the decisions made, should it become necessary at some point in the future, while in reality he just looked and sounded like an evasive floundering fool.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,110 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker




  • Registered Users Posts: 242 ✭✭The Nu man in town


    500 patients needing ICU December was modelled by NPHET. Right now we have barely over 100.

    Do you honestly believe that is because of the new restrictions which have been largely ignored and not enforced.

    The models are junk bond status at this point.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,147 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Yep and I personally had high hopes for Donnelly. It seems there's another virus at play in the corridors of power, BS Influenceza 1.0, easily transmitted in that environment. Symptoms include excessive bullshít production, memory loss and a compulsive need to cover one's arse while infected others around you. This virus seemingly has no effective treatment or vaccine in sight and no natural resistance in politicians.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Good to see NPHET being brought to heel. It is completely correct that they should coordinate communications with the government and not be allowed to fly solo. That is one thing that the UK government got right from the outset



  • Registered Users Posts: 38,316 ✭✭✭✭PTH2009


    Hard to feel positive today

    We now understand these 'models' are so influential. If another variant arrives what's stopping another one of these models been drawn up influencing government decisions ?

    On my way to a concert now and hopefully I can enjoy it and feel somewhat positive about the future here in Ireland



  • Registered Users Posts: 242 ✭✭The Nu man in town


    That is not how it works at all. In the weeks after new restrictions are introduced cases presenting in hospital will have been seeded or already within a close contact group prior to the new restrictions.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,042 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    nphet just have no clue what to do. Like what effect if any will these restrictions do to the numbers? All I see is more unnecessary taxpayers money been handed out to businesses that should be operating at capacity.

    Disband them now and bring in a panel of experts in epidemiology from another country. Nolan especially should be handed his P45 today.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Good to see some of our media look like they’re finally questioning the whole restrictions long term charade. Obviously, Virgin and RTE won’t be doing much given the amount they’ve benefited from HSE Covid ads, but the print media do have some power.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulodonoghue93/status/1466842175652642822



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,672 ✭✭✭ElTel


    If we remove cases under 12 then that 2.5 for CHR is accurate.

    So it's a good number for "vaccinated" burden.

    Boosters will reduce this.



  • Registered Users Posts: 242 ✭✭The Nu man in town


    If my auntie had balls she'd be my uncle.

    Why are you removing under 12's other than to try make it look like Holohan is correct?

    Why not remove the under 20's?



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,962 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    I suppose we could remove remove U12's, sure it's only about 18% of the population. While we are doing that I thinks it's only fair that we remove all cases from the U12's just to add a bit of balance to the numbers.

    Maybe we should look at the entire population though and stop looking to cherrypick numbers that makes the situation look worse than it is.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,672 ✭✭✭ElTel


    All I'm saying is he'll have a perfectly crafted response to that. This minutiae is not worth it. They have us arguing details instead of looking at the big picture.

    I'm not a fan of him btw quite the opposite and, short version I'm in the "let it rip Sweden style" camp.



  • Registered Users Posts: 242 ✭✭The Nu man in town



    Well the good news is he doubled down on it and gave 2-3 per 1000 go to ICU, hard to worm his way out of that.

    So we should be seeing about 10 admitted a day to ICU.

    "The CMO reiterated that every 1,000 cases of the virus will lead to between 20-25 people requiring hospitalisation, of whom 2-3 will require critical care in ICU."

    I'd say we've seen the last of him. Omicron will peter out of the media fairly quickly and with them being told to shut up by the government they know the game is up.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,600 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    That is exactly what is after happening. People talk about boosters and omicron and ventilation, distancing and 9 euro meals and whatnot as if we were 5 million amateur epidemiologists getting bogged down in detail no one has a final answer to anyway.

    All the while the plain truth that is in the numbers has been lost from sight. We literally cannot see the wood from the trees anymore.



  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Phil Nolan has the best job in the world. All he has to do is make up some terrible numbers and use them to introduce restrictions.

    When they're completely wrong it's obviously because pubs closed an hour earlier...



  • Registered Users Posts: 98 ✭✭Pepsirebel


    That's it. Did anyone in government say...hang on, prove that model as the last few you did were shite. If you want us to go along, then you need to provide proof you're right this time or you're gone! Or maybe, they did & government couldn't be bothering their holes to check it independently and said, belt away lads looks good.

    My money is on the latter



  • Registered Users Posts: 242 ✭✭The Nu man in town


    Its worse than that.

    He used be allowed to come out in his condescending tone and say "because everybody followed the advice and restrictions our most pessimistic models didn't come to pass"

    He says this knowing full well that adherence to their rubbish is, well, non existent in most cases.

    Thankfully he is censored now.



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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,687 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Veradkar said last night the models should be peer reviewed



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,094 ✭✭✭Royale with Cheese




  • Registered Users Posts: 11,663 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    I swear I recall Varadkar saying that too in the past and it never happened. Could be wrong though.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,439 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    Has he ever considered reviewing them "before" using them to bring in restrictions?

    Or is that just crazy talk.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,636 ✭✭✭Doctor Jimbob


    I had high hopes for Donnelly as well. Always sounded like he knew what he’s talking about. Problem is, his current role has shown that’s all there is to him. He’s articulate and confident but that’s about it. Once you look into his statements or someone questions anything he says, it becomes obvious that he has all the depth of a puddle.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    The problem is still 12 months ago - 12 months ago when we did not have vaccines but we had a massive rise in the run up and beyond Christmas.

    But even then NPHET were a disgrace. The Taoiseach signalled that the increased numbers and new restrictions was partly due to the Alpha variant yet members of NPHET decided to go against him on that - the Taoiseach was right but NPHET played politics.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,636 ✭✭✭Doctor Jimbob


    He’s in a position where he could quite easily make that happen if he wanted to. I’m absolutely fed up of people in government - particularly those in senior roles - acting as if they have no say in anything.



  • Registered Users Posts: 98 ✭✭Pepsirebel


    To bring any changes to a forecast to any businees or sports or anything else, you need to be able to back up your data and have it questioned openly (by people that know what they're at) in a constructive way.

    Our lads just shite themselves looking at the graphs & figures (paper never refuses ink)



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,687 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    I think that they have finally called it out and that's positive imo



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,456 ✭✭✭✭fits


    I have a PhD in modelling ( a long time ago and I am no longer active in it) and I don’t see the issue you all have with the NPHET models..

    Models are a decision support tool that describe what could happen under various scenarios. They can’t predict the future or human behaviour. Nolan and NPHET are not perfect but they are doing their best.



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