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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    Good update from John Burn-Murdoch on Omicron focusing more on disease severity



    That's exponential growth by the very definition.


    We need to get lucky here, otherwise this could be awful.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    But it does lower your chances of being infected or pass it on. It does not eliminate this chance, but does lower it. If you're going on a big rant at least get the simplest facts right.

    Unvaccinated still taking up a disproportionate amount of hospital beds, hence the continued and increasing restrictions on them until that drops to 1:1 or restrictions are gone altogether.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,892 ✭✭✭the kelt


    There is no plan.

    For any of this, no plan whatsoever to actually live with COVID apart from repeat 2020 again and again and again.

    That’s the issue.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭Danye


    I don’t know? I was told that these vaccines were 100% effective against preventing hospitalisations and death. This turned out to be incorrect.

    The same people are saying it lowers your chances of getting it and transmitting it, but again, I think even that claim doesn’t look as concrete as it once was.

    And even if it does lower your chances of catching it and transmitting it, how much does it lower it by? 0.01%, 0.5%, 20%, 40%??

    We’ve what, 94% of the population vaccinated and yet we have 4k plus new cases everyday for over a month now if not longer? They’re all not unvaccinated.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    The plan is to try to get through the peak of winter without collapsing the health service. If we can manage this then next year we'll have a blueprint that will likely involve vaccine boosters, so the anti vaccination crowd better get their sh1t together because any future lockdowns will be 100% your fault



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,875 ✭✭✭Russman


    Oh I don't doubt that, but to suggest the vaccines don't lower your chances of infection or transmission seems a little disingenuous. No vaccine has ever been 100% at anything as far as I know, but surely if it didn't lower the chances of infection we'd have a lot more than 4k cases a day given everything is open. We were higher than that in January with everything closed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,973 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    If they do, they don't do it enough. We can't cope with 5-6k a day as we can clearly see (or we can but our government are too weak). Our hospital capacity is nowhere near enough for the limited effect they're having on transmission to do anything for us.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,892 ✭✭✭the kelt


    so the plan is to get through this winter and repeat the same next year?

    So as i said no plan to actually live with COVID.

    Vaccines are the way forward for next year like they were for this year. Good plan!

    Get your vaccine to get life back to normality, opps sorry that didn’t work, more restrictions but take the vaccine again to get life back to normal, opps that didn’t work more restrictions…..

    Thats the plan??



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,804 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    That page really needs to be updated. There's separate guidelines for a variant of concern, which Delta is. Makes the other guidelines kinda redundant with delta dominant.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26 petr1


    All the lads making money off the virus. I like the part about Europe helping to create variants by blocking poor countries from creating vaccine.

    And then talk of making it mandatory.

    Its all rotten at this stage.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 26 petr1


    Everyone has had it now. Natural immunity. If they'd opened everything during summer we wouldn't have a bit of overlap with seasonal bugs now.


    But we have fools in control.


    And suckers following their every word.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,921 ✭✭✭Bananaleaf


    No, it is the same change for everyone.

    The teachers who are out isolating are household contacts of their own families.

    What I was saying is that I think (careful now, I'm not saying it is fact, it is what I think) the masking of children has come up since transmission rates amongst them is high. I know that they don't suffer badly from Covid, but if they are the age group that are transmitting it most AND we have the household contact rule running at the same time, then maybe the idea was that if we could reduce the amount of transmission amongst them, it would reduce the amount of household close contacts, therefore reducing the number of staff members in schools having to stay at home isolating, but - as has been pointed out by another poster, and quite correctly- not just schools, all professions. Employers are getting sick of it as are most parents, which is completely understandable.

    Masking the kids is not about keeping 80 year olds off ventilators. It's about keeping adults in work. It only came about after the household contact rule came about.

    You don't have to think it is a great idea, but it is my opinion that this is THE idea. That's all.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,148 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    In your haste to be a WUM you may have missed the bit that said: "to date, a much lower share of Covid-positive patients in this wave require ICU than at same stage of Delta wave".

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 31,067 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    What is your evidence for "everyone has had it now"?

    We have 118,000 cumulative confirmed cases. If everyone had had it, that would suggest (crudely) that there are 42 infections for every confirmed case. There is no authoritative source suggesting anything close to this ratio.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,253 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    I'd suggest you actually read the thread yourself



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    No, widespread global vaccination and better therapeutics are the way forward. That so-called anti vaccination crowd will include an increasing number of people not inclined to take boosters. There is only so far current vaccines can take us before authorities begin to lose the justification for them via boosters.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,875 ✭✭✭Russman


    I'm not being argumentative, I'm genuinely curious here, when you say living with COVID, do you mean ignoring COVID or accepting that some things about how we live our lives will be a bit different than they were before ? Like adapting our lives to live with COVID until it becomes endemic in the background.

    The plan was vaccines, nobody knew quite how effective or not they would be in real life. I don't know what the plan is now. Presumably they're hoping with the apparently much increased protection from boosters, the plan is now a 3 dose vaccine regimen. Who knows.



  • Registered Users Posts: 31,067 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    OK, I'm probably being a bit thick, but you're saying that teachers are out because members of their families have tested positive, and therefore fall under the "Household close contact who is fully vaccinated must restrict movements for 5 days" rule, which is new?

    And you're then suggesting that these household members somehow got it indirectly due to spread in primary schools, which masking would reduce?

    It seems a bit far fetched.

    I mean, I don't want to be assuming bad behaviour on the part of teachers or their families, but is it not more likely that they're out because they (or their own household members) caught it from their own (adult) social contacts, or their kids picked it up from social contact out of school?



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Well they do, and it would be great if they did it more and better therapeutics are becoming available soon. But what's your plan from this point forward? We should have opened sooner, but didn't, 5th December, hospitals near capacity and a more infectious variant coming (that may be milder but unknown right now, also may decrease vaccine efficacy), what's the next step? If it's open up, what do we do with those needing hospital care, if it's more restrictions, on what and why. If it's "everyone should be healthier", great, we should, it will take years to make a dent in it, what till then?

    The way I see it is that we're over half way down a tunnel and can't really go back so need to press forward keeping the hospitalisations under control till it should start alleviating itself in Spring then fully open. England is going full bore with boosters and bringing back masks, that should be an indication to everybody, Boris will not have liked to bring back the mask mandates and England has a higher tolerance than other countries for letting people die.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭Danye


    I’m not saying they don’t lower your infection or transmission rate but I am querying how effective they are, or how effective they claim to be?

    I always thought that no vaccine could ever be described as being 100% effective, ever, yet we had people, who are highly respected and who now have huge media profiles who were claiming exactly that.

    And again, my own personal genuine experiences is most of the people I know who have been infected have been vaccinated. I genuinely know of 2 couples were both women were vaccinated and their partners weren’t. Neither of the partners got it. One of the women is in an awful way and she has been signed off work with long covid until the new year. Her unvaccinated partner, who would be obese, is fine.

    A lot of it doesn’t make sense.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,613 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    What nonsense is this - test a quarter of the population every week:



    whatever about the practical issues with this, what purpose does it serve? Isolate if you have symptoms, and give out 3rd doses at rapid pace. Testing is pretty pointless at this stage in the pandemic.



  • Registered Users Posts: 31,067 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    @Danye wrote

    I always thought that no vaccine could ever be described as being 100% effective, ever, yet we had people, who are highly respected and who now have huge media profiles who were claiming exactly that.

    Who, specifically, are these people? There were plenty of people* who suggested (pre-Delta) that we might get herd immunity from widespread vaccination, based on the data from the clinical trials, but I don't recall anyone saying that the vaccines would be 100% effective on an individual basis, at least after the impact of Delta was known.

    As has been pointed out quite often, we are seeing a reproduction number of around 1 from a virus whose basic R number is somewhere upwards of 5. How else would that have been achieved, considering that fairly few people (like 2% of the population) have been confirmed cases?

    * myself included, although I have neither any kind of media profile nor any amount of respect



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Some vaccines give a sterilising immunity, it's still not 100%, but close to it, antibodies in the blood attack the virus quickly before it has a chance to multiply and pass on to others (but you stick your finger in someone's nose, you can still get it), the COVID vaccines have a high antibody count soon after receiving a dose (like much much higher than needed), but this drops off over months (seems to be an evolutionary quirk in our immune system to coronavirus such as colds) which means the virus can get in and multiply and then pass on, protection against severe disease is still there (for most) and doesn't wane anywhere near as much as the ability to stop transmission. It's thought this is because the vaccines aren't specifically targeting the respiratory system so the virus can build up there before the immune system sees the virus and starts attacking it by which time it has a foothold already. Nasal vaccines may help this (but at the disadvantage of not offering as good protection against severe disease) and would likely be targeted at those less vulnerable to the effects of COVID.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,892 ✭✭✭the kelt


    No problem, I’m coming from the same outlook I believe as you. I don’t believe in ignoring COVID, we can’t, we accept some things to live relatively normally with COVID, for example masks, doesn’t bother me in the least apart from when I forget the bloody thing and restrictions in terms of foreign travel etc.

    But not what we have been doing, the most restricted country in Europe throughout this entire pandemic over all, asking people to limit their movements to drive numbers in hospitals down and reward then by imposing even more restrictions.

    The plan was vaccines, hasn’t really worked out as planned so the plan now it seems is more vaccines…….. when that doesn’t work out, what next, oh emm restrictions and restrictions remaining when the rest of Europe opens up and eases, restrict when we shouldn’t ie during summer months and try open up more when we shouldn’t ie what we done.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,613 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    It's probably best to judge the effectiveness of the vaccine based on actual data rather than a couple of anecdotes. The data on vaccine effectiveness against serious illness is absolutely clear - vaccines work very well. It's a pity they don't stop transmission quite as well as we hoped, but without vaccines we would now be in the most severe lockdown we've ever had because delta is so transmissible.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,616 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    If we didn't have such a high vaccine take up we could be back in full lockdown like Austria or a 5am to 5pm curfew like the Netherlands or having to consider mandatory vaccines (highly unlikely here and the UK due to the high take up %).



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    The booster programme is in 2nd gear when it should be in 5th gear. Excuses that people were not yet at 5 months. My parents were up to 7 months and are mid 70’s.

    I am late 40’s and should be offered it next week but the chances of that happening are next to none - perhaps in 6 weeks time the way it is going.

    While Paul Reid and Tony H and the NPHET crowd are wagging their fingers at us, the slow pace of boosters is down to them. It is not a supply issue.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,892 ✭✭✭the kelt


    I know, I don’t have an issue with vaccines, kinda backing up a point I made earlier today, raise any questions at all and kinda labelled anti vax here.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,148 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    This is just my opinion of course, but I believe we've become far too focused on antibody levels, their peaks after vaccination(or infection) and their waning levels a few months in which leads to more positives/infections. What we should be looking at are not infection rates, but the severity of illness that results in the infected. And that is much more down to immune system memory kicking into action because of vaccination(seems to be more unreliable after "natural" infection), a mechanism that when faced with the pox again recognises it and mounts enough defences against it and in time to stop it going beyond mild snotters or no symptoms in the vast majority. Exceptions would be the very old and immunocompromised whose immune systems are less effective at producing immune memory and they'd need boosters alright, or if covid mutated enough to evade those immune memories.

    For me, again my opinion, I think it's a fools errand to keep pursuing constantly high antibody levels and boosters to keep them high(save for in the vulnerable demographics) and I can't see the logic. It's unsustainable and no vaccine ever(or infection) causes that in the body. If you had measles or were vaccinated against it you are "immune" to measles for life(viral infections vary on this length of protective memory. EG tetanus is more like ten years) and if your blood was tested for measles antibodies two months after infection or vaccination yep they would be high. A year later? Ten years later? They'd be way down and you'd need to dig deep for them, but you'd still be protected from symptomatic disease from measles. Now I could understand the antibody thing if it meant a massively reduced transmission rate and we could ringfence outbreaks and drive the pox extinct like we did with smallpox and are nearly there with polio, but as it stands that's never going to happen. Unlike those two examples there are too many reservoirs for this pox, including animals, the vaccines are leakier, covid can spread before symptoms arise, there are asymptomatic infections and transmission protection is too low and we don't have the luxury of a century to attempt it.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,613 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Exactly. I actually think we should cut back testing capacity and use the swabbers and facilities to vaccinate people instead. Getting third doses into arms is critical at this stage.



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