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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

1573574576578579951

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,906 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Some vaccines give a sterilising immunity, it's still not 100%, but close to it, antibodies in the blood attack the virus quickly before it has a chance to multiply and pass on to others (but you stick your finger in someone's nose, you can still get it), the COVID vaccines have a high antibody count soon after receiving a dose (like much much higher than needed), but this drops off over months (seems to be an evolutionary quirk in our immune system to coronavirus such as colds) which means the virus can get in and multiply and then pass on, protection against severe disease is still there (for most) and doesn't wane anywhere near as much as the ability to stop transmission. It's thought this is because the vaccines aren't specifically targeting the respiratory system so the virus can build up there before the immune system sees the virus and starts attacking it by which time it has a foothold already. Nasal vaccines may help this (but at the disadvantage of not offering as good protection against severe disease) and would likely be targeted at those less vulnerable to the effects of COVID.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,892 ✭✭✭the kelt


    No problem, I’m coming from the same outlook I believe as you. I don’t believe in ignoring COVID, we can’t, we accept some things to live relatively normally with COVID, for example masks, doesn’t bother me in the least apart from when I forget the bloody thing and restrictions in terms of foreign travel etc.

    But not what we have been doing, the most restricted country in Europe throughout this entire pandemic over all, asking people to limit their movements to drive numbers in hospitals down and reward then by imposing even more restrictions.

    The plan was vaccines, hasn’t really worked out as planned so the plan now it seems is more vaccines…….. when that doesn’t work out, what next, oh emm restrictions and restrictions remaining when the rest of Europe opens up and eases, restrict when we shouldn’t ie during summer months and try open up more when we shouldn’t ie what we done.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,615 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    It's probably best to judge the effectiveness of the vaccine based on actual data rather than a couple of anecdotes. The data on vaccine effectiveness against serious illness is absolutely clear - vaccines work very well. It's a pity they don't stop transmission quite as well as we hoped, but without vaccines we would now be in the most severe lockdown we've ever had because delta is so transmissible.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,906 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    If we didn't have such a high vaccine take up we could be back in full lockdown like Austria or a 5am to 5pm curfew like the Netherlands or having to consider mandatory vaccines (highly unlikely here and the UK due to the high take up %).



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    The booster programme is in 2nd gear when it should be in 5th gear. Excuses that people were not yet at 5 months. My parents were up to 7 months and are mid 70’s.

    I am late 40’s and should be offered it next week but the chances of that happening are next to none - perhaps in 6 weeks time the way it is going.

    While Paul Reid and Tony H and the NPHET crowd are wagging their fingers at us, the slow pace of boosters is down to them. It is not a supply issue.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,892 ✭✭✭the kelt


    I know, I don’t have an issue with vaccines, kinda backing up a point I made earlier today, raise any questions at all and kinda labelled anti vax here.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,170 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    This is just my opinion of course, but I believe we've become far too focused on antibody levels, their peaks after vaccination(or infection) and their waning levels a few months in which leads to more positives/infections. What we should be looking at are not infection rates, but the severity of illness that results in the infected. And that is much more down to immune system memory kicking into action because of vaccination(seems to be more unreliable after "natural" infection), a mechanism that when faced with the pox again recognises it and mounts enough defences against it and in time to stop it going beyond mild snotters or no symptoms in the vast majority. Exceptions would be the very old and immunocompromised whose immune systems are less effective at producing immune memory and they'd need boosters alright, or if covid mutated enough to evade those immune memories.

    For me, again my opinion, I think it's a fools errand to keep pursuing constantly high antibody levels and boosters to keep them high(save for in the vulnerable demographics) and I can't see the logic. It's unsustainable and no vaccine ever(or infection) causes that in the body. If you had measles or were vaccinated against it you are "immune" to measles for life(viral infections vary on this length of protective memory. EG tetanus is more like ten years) and if your blood was tested for measles antibodies two months after infection or vaccination yep they would be high. A year later? Ten years later? They'd be way down and you'd need to dig deep for them, but you'd still be protected from symptomatic disease from measles. Now I could understand the antibody thing if it meant a massively reduced transmission rate and we could ringfence outbreaks and drive the pox extinct like we did with smallpox and are nearly there with polio, but as it stands that's never going to happen. Unlike those two examples there are too many reservoirs for this pox, including animals, the vaccines are leakier, covid can spread before symptoms arise, there are asymptomatic infections and transmission protection is too low and we don't have the luxury of a century to attempt it.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,615 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Exactly. I actually think we should cut back testing capacity and use the swabbers and facilities to vaccinate people instead. Getting third doses into arms is critical at this stage.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,921 ✭✭✭Bananaleaf


    Yes, I suppose that is kind of what I am saying. And that

    It probably is far fetched. I don't come here claiming to know the answer to everything.

    I'm sure adults are picking it up from their adult social interaction.

    But all I can tell you is that in my job (second level teaching) we have gone from 2-3 members of staff being absent to almost 20 each day, now that the close contact rule has been brought in. Which, to me, at second level makes no sense as we are masked. But you see, if the rule has to be in place for one, it has to be there for all and I'll be the first to admit that if second level teachers were made exempt from that rule, there would be war (I'd be happy to be exempt)

    All I was suggesting is that the possible train of thought from government (yeah yeah, I know, 'they don't have a train of thought) is that if they can mask the older of primary school children they can go back to not needing the isolate rule.

    Is this the right and most effective way to go about doing so? No. Is it the cheapest? Yes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,918 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    We’ve what, 94% of the population vaccinated and yet we have 4k plus new cases everyday for over a month now if not longer? They’re all not unvaccinated.

    Not all unvaccinated, but still make up a sizeable chunk of daily cases ~50%. That figure excludes anyone under 12, who of course would also be unvaccinated.




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,906 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    I think labelling it as "rewarded with freedom" and "punished with restrictions" is a bit weird, the adult population aren't children, we should understand what's needed and why it's needed to combat a novel virus that disproportionality effects those with weak immune systems and are older from dying off in droves without feeling the need to be rewarded for it.

    Meme from reddit that kind of sums it up.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,152 ✭✭✭Danye




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Living with Covid means no sectors of the economy being restricted in any way whatsoever. Nor social distancing being a thing.

    Focus on ventilation in enclosed areas and schools and (free, unlimited) antigen testing for when someone feels under the weather for whatever reason, and isolating if positive. Mask mandates at certain times of year or to manage a surge. Develop treatments. Meanwhile get on with building the appropriate hospital infrastructure and capacity

    If this goes on for 5-10 years as has been suggested by British government scientific advisors, ‘living with Covid’ CANNOT mean any restrictions on economic activity whatsoever.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,152 ✭✭✭Danye


    I agree. But with stories like that out there, it’s easy to see why people might become reluctant around the vaccination program / boosters.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 6,914 Mod ✭✭✭✭shesty


    I am confused.

    My friend's 10 year old tested positive today (yes -after week 1 of mask wearing).

    So before - as in say two weeks ago or so - the principal would have texted his pod/table, antigens all the way, byt everyone keeps going as long as they have no symptoms (not the positive child obviously).And prior to that, all at his pod would have to go for tests - but that's it.

    So now that they have masks -his pod still get informed, still get antigens and keep going as is??

    I don't see how the teacher or the masks really feature in this?I understand it was different in Sept/Oct but of recent weeks?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,892 ✭✭✭the kelt


    Fair enough, I think people looking at memes on Reddit a bit weird. Actually Reddit is weird.

    Also the reply above which has nothing to do with what was said in the post you quoted but off on some other tangent altogether is a bit weird, you raised the advantages of the vaccine uptake and I agree with you.

    The public and adult population get it in the main, hence the fact for the last 2 weeks people have been asked to do their bit and reduce hospital numbers and they did.

    Very basic behavioural theory examines what reward does for people in terms of human nature and behaviour, especially in terms of bringing people with you, getting buy in.

    You might find the labelling a bit weird but that’s human nature unfortunately, also I don’t recall stating the words you quoted “rewarded with freedoms” and “punished with restrictions” at all, perhaps you’re think of some other post, but I believe the lack of basic knowledge of human behaviour throughout this whole pandemic to be lacking considerably.



  • Registered Users Posts: 991 ✭✭✭Stormyteacup


    That report says 13% of all cases were not vaccinated in the four weeks to November 20th.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,141 ✭✭✭✭Lumen




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,921 ✭✭✭Bananaleaf


    Can't comment on primary schools but in secondary, that was always how it was done (we were all masked from day one)

    The change came for us when they did away with the 'close contacts isolate rule' and that is when principals stopped informing parents of positive cases at all.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,676 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Did you read the thread? The conclusion is the virus is milder. That doesn't seem to fit your posting style.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,012 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    My plan is to leave people die tbh. Lots wouldn't agree with it but this predominantly kills the very old and the very sick, so I don't see why 99% of people should have their lives curtailed to save lots of people who have either lived theirs or their survival outlook isn't very good even without covid around anyway.

    Mitigate the hospital spread by having some dedicated covid only treatment centres, and vaccinations, antivirals etc are there for those people or anyone else who wants to, but outside that, let's just go back to normal imo.



  • Registered Users Posts: 545 ✭✭✭Crocodile Booze


    Edgy. Extremely embarrassing for you, but edgy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 568 ✭✭✭72sheep


    So interesting times ahead chaps. Vaccines are still preventing death amongst that unchanged vulnerable cohort (i.e. 80+ year olds and and those with <insert your preferred quantifier here> underlying conditions). However the reasons for targeting the unvaccinated are not converging:

    - Omicron ignores vaccination status

    - Vaccines do not inhibit transmission (per Tony Holohan remember)

    - The “unvaccinated are dominating hospital ICUs" story has disappeared without explanation (probably with some relief as they were never able to qualify this strange statistic)

    - …

    I’m feeling the need for a new Long-Covid-is-going-to-rip-through-the-younger-cohort type narrative. Over to you RTE’s Brendan O’Connor ;-) 


    Speaking of which, both his mature lady agony aunts yesterday had a story to tell about how they were accommodating unvaccinated family member peers over Christmas. Will leave it as an exercise for the amateur mathematicians here to work out the probability of this scenario being true.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,170 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    The problem is the vaccinated loons who think that because the got two bangs of the jab, that they are bulletproof. This is not the case, they can transmit and get the virus. Science has shown us that the vaccines begin to wane after 3 months. Hence any person who has had their second jab over 6 months ago is no longer well protected.

    Science shows antibody levels wane after a few months, but protection from serious illness and death remains high. This is reflected in the realities today. Society has never been as open in the last 18 months than it is now, positive test results are very high, yet hospilatisations, ICU numbers and deaths remain low and half of those are in the unvaccinated.

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,141 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    @titan18 wrote

    I don't see why 99% of people should have their lives curtailed

    I think you mean lifestyles, but then it wouldn't be as melodramatic.

    The only lives curtailed are those who die.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,906 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    The same studies showing that the period of infectiousness and time sick were lower for the vaccinated and that there is an effect at all in the home environment where exposure would be well beyond the 15 minutes and closer than 1/2 metres recommended otherwise as well as the real world R rate being much lower. If you're going to clarify, bring all of the data into it not just cherry picking the bits to try and support your argument as it detracts even from the good points you make, everyone reading will now be thinking what you're leaving out of future posts because they don't match that narrative.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,906 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    This was the bit I was replying to, we're adults, rewards are for children, if this is driving behavior during a pandemic (and then it may mostly be on here as public opinion has been very different), then those can't give out when they're treated like children in response.

    But not what we have been doing, the most restricted country in Europe throughout this entire pandemic over all, asking people to limit their movements to drive numbers in hospitals down and reward then by imposing even more restrictions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,012 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    I disagree. There are plenty of people who have missed cancer screenings cos of this, and people who have developed or worsened mental health conditions.

    Even outside of that, what we did to the construction industry during this will result in more homeless. There are people who've had to hold off on getting married, finding relationships, starting families due to all of this. There are people who are financially ruined through this by what's been done to their jobs or companies. People who might not have been able to travel home to say goodbye to dying family members.

    Its not just we closed some pubs and that's it. All of the above is lives being ruined imo.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,676 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Interesting to see a minister suggest it could be 'more benign'.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,906 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    You do of course understand then that those in charge can't have a plan of "leave people die".

    Both medically and politically it's absolutely not a path they can take.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,906 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    I agree, construction should never have shutdown, that was a brain numbingly stupid move.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 83 ✭✭Steveimitation


    Don't they say that in all all walks of life there is always a certain percentage of the population that won't comply? Comply is the wrong word for me anyway as I don't feel vaccines should be mandatory (I personally favour them before someone jumps down my throat).

    People can keep demonising and lambasting those who refuse to be vaccinated but it's ultimately pointless. You won't convince everybody and trying to do so indefinitely is a waste of time. In any case it was never part of the deal for everybody to be vaccinated. The aim was that a vaccinated person would be sufficiently protected so that he or she need not worry if they actually did catch covid. As the vaccines are proving to have a much lesser effect than we all hoped they would, panic and fear is striking. When this happens the worst of people comes to the fore, including imo, the demonisation of these so called anti-vax people.

    The main thing is that it's unrealistic to think that everybody can or will be convinced to get a jab without coercing them. The only way to get close to achieving this would be to push and encroach on personal freedoms to such a degree that a point is reached where there is little choice left for people if they want to have any real quality of life on a day to day basis (we can argue that we are heading that way).

    Personally it's not something I am comfortable with and even in such a scenario there would still be outliers. Plus 94 percent. How much better do we expect to get than that?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Well, NPHET seem to have been banished from the airwaves so that's all we're likely to hear.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,012 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    Yes, I'm aware of that. At least they can't say it publicly anyway. I'd rather we had a country designed for young people to thrive rather than old people to survive though myself.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,325 ✭✭✭iLikeWaffles


    No, it's normalising "the mask" to not being something they should be scared of, or seeing someone getting swabbed, or indeed if there ever comes a time when they themselves need to be swabbed to be not something they should be scared of, end of. No one is saying children should be masked and more importantly infants should be. Nobody is saying that full stop, so stop deliberately misinterpreting it. The thing is it was shown to adults, not children! As an adult we have the choice whether or not to show a child anything whether it is normal or not that is our choice as an adult, just like every other choice anyone makes affects what way we interact in the world we all live in that is our responsibility as adults.



  • Registered Users Posts: 991 ✭✭✭Stormyteacup


    Not so sure that’s true. Moving elderly out of hospital and back to nursing homes without testing them for Covid first looks quite like a plan to “leave people die.”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,603 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    It would work if everyone got the vaccine. We still have hundreds of thousands of unvaccinated adults who are the biggest risk to the health service, and we now know that fully vaccinated people might need boosters before winter, so next year we'll be better prepared and should have no need for any restrictions



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,915 ✭✭✭Russman


    Any other illnesses you’d opt to let people die from, or just covid ? No government will ever go that route.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,432 ✭✭✭SusanC10


    How long are HSE PCR Test results taking at the moment?

    And can the result come at any time or do they stop at a set time like 8pm ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,906 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    True and that will likely result in an inquiry or tribunal once we're through all this.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,012 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    Just covid. I still think you can do things to live with it (funding covid only treatment centres to keep people out of hospitals and thus not spreading it as much in there, continue buying vaccines for optional use, masks are optional etc, encourage staying at home as much as someone reasonably can when people have symptoms) but closing businesses and restricting travel should be done away with.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,906 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    I think we've done as much as we can in getting people vaccinated, the 92% of adults number is unlikely to change much even if it became mandatory.

    That doesn't mean the COVID cert can be dropped as long as the unvaccinated are putting a disproportionate amount of pressure on the health system, when the number is 1:1 (or close) it can be dropped.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,787 ✭✭✭Benimar


    I know two people tested during week and results took 27-30 hours. Both got results around 9pm so they seem to go to then at least.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,468 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Urm what's exponential by its very definition?

    Not that graph anyway



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,432 ✭✭✭SusanC10




  • Registered Users Posts: 242 ✭✭The Nu man in town


    Ordinarily NPHET will just pull another rabbit out of the hat to keep themselves in the media.

    Thankfully they have been told to be seen and not heard so this time the government might be able to make decisions a bit quicker.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,865 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    Absolutely terrifying, I don't even need to read the tweets, just looking at those super scary graphs has me under the bed as I type this, I've welded my front door shut too. Can't be too careful with this deadly variant.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,151 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    Why are we still persisting with 10 day isolation for close contacts? In fact, even for people who test positive 10 days is a very long time. Hasn't it been shown that vaccinated people shed less and for a shorter time frame?

    We need to start updating some of this advice because we can't run a functional society with silly rules like these in place.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    There may not be an awful lot of data on when vaccinated are considered free of the virus so 10 days remains the default.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 670 ✭✭✭fm


    Poster didn't bother reading it obviously,76% of admitted patients didn't even know they had it,less on ventilation than delta and discharged alot faster.more positive news than anything else



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