Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

There is a Starlink thread with users getting ±170 Mbps. I own what is probably one of the remotest properties in the country and even though you can not get a useful mobile signal, you could in theory get faster internet than my current 150 Mbps FTH.

Jaysus I knew we were bad but sixth highest in the world is desperate. The government has had an absolute bonanza the last 10 years with corporation tax n MNC wages. They knew it couldn't last forever but instead of using it to make us competitive they squandered it n made us even less so.

You need to revise your numbers! CSO put out a population update yesterday which the media have largely ignored, that says they've found an extra 250k people in Ireland. We're now at at least 5.2m.

And that's not counting all the illegals who go a whopper of an amnesty today with the Govt admitting they have no real idea of how many of them are here and there'll be no cap on the numbers processed through the amnesty. Family reunification to follow to swell the numbers further.

Supply cannot possibly keep up with the population growth. And all of the political parties are fully in favour on continued immigration with essentially no limits.

House and rent prices can only keep going in one way. Same for scarcity of supply.

No proposal, simply that if people are decamping to holiday homes does that leave an extra unit in what is probably a high demand area

I rented in Ballsbridge for a while and I don't really agree with your assessment. I loved living there, absolute ton of bars and restaurants on my doorstep, was about a 15 min walk from Stephen's Green, and is this motorway you speak of... Baggot St? Errr, no. It was a fantastic place to live in my late 20s or so with a few bob in my pocket before rents went absolutely mental.

I have made some rough estimates for 2022 Census CSO household size.

It's likely to be close to 2016. I'm not sure how someone would be able to get any significant decrease in household size.

Numbers in millions.

As I mentioned, different methods can produce different results, thus we need to understand methods, and compare only likes with likes.

Looking at this big data evaluation, the difference on population is crazy, I would not be surprise if the difference would be less than 1% (50K or so), but 200K in difference, that sound very strange.

Sandymount is beautiful. I'd pick it over ballsbridge any day.

There is talk of coastal erosion - sample https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/over-70-000-irish-addresses-at-risk-of-coastal-flooding-by-2050-1.4258531

But I doubt that explains the low views. Maybe young people just *assume* they can't afford it and don't put it into their searches.

I believe that 2.5 is more accurate a figure than 2.6 as I said in 2018 it had already dropped from 2.75 to 2.6 in 2 years and in the 3 years since our birth rate has decreased, our migration rate inwards has decreased and death rate and build completion rate has also gone up so like I say its definitely lower than 2.6 which is what it was in 2018. (sure an up to date figure will be release next year)

The problem with way your measuring is there are too many unknowns with the count that you are using. We don't have a count of derelict properties or properties with no supporting infrastructure, we don't know if they knocked on the door once, twice or did they count it as not being used because the electricity was cut off and if it was cut off was it because of payments or we do we know if the owners were in transit moving in or moving out of a property. Where the owners on holidays or away (Remember there are almost 40k holiday homes in the country). There are just way too many variables that could skew the figures either way. So with that said what you can measure is the current stock up for sale, rent (myhome, daft, rent.ie), the housing list and the homeless list. These 4 tangibles that when measured separately or taken together would seem to suggest that we don't have enough housing built with the right infrastructure and that are habitable to house our population so your measure is way off as you cant just include them all and say that they were all there ready with the right supporting infrastructure, habitable and unoccupied. You also only have to look at the political side of this. If what your trying to say is true and we had nearly 100k houses habitable and unoccupied do you not think Sinn Fein would be up on Kilimanjaro shouting as loudly as they can and pointing to this? This one area would IMO push them over the edge with the popular vote and they would garner even more political gains and conversely if FF/FG had this amount of properties available to house do you not think that even one politician would have the common sense to get these properties into circulation. Housing after Covid is the number 1 issue for the majority in this country

Throw in the fact that if the properties are sitting their idle it means there owners are making no money off them. You only need to look at the current rent and sale figures to realize that only a moron would do this. I don't think we have that many gobshites living here, I could be wrong but all the evidence I see and that can be measured would suggest your theory is wrong.

I think we will have to agree to disagree on this one as any explanation you put forward would have to have an explanation for the following

Housing list

Homeless list

Houses for Sale/Rent

Why have the political classes not used this figure to garner more support

Why have we so many dopey landlords and property owners in the country that in a time of all time high rents and close to an all time high for sales figures they would leave a property empty?

The only explanation I can see that covers all of the above is that we have not got enough housing to house our population.

It simply costs too much to renovate a derelict property and its quite hard to find out who owns them is why a lot are lying idle, doesn't make sense for any private individual to invest that money instead of buying new and property investors aren't interested unless it can be turned into 9 apts. Government plan is more taxes as per usual which wont fix the underlying viability issue, they need to extend HTP to derelict properties.

so in short, there is no credible explanation.

The other thing that you need to consider is that measuring housing stock at a total level does not take into account enough houses in the areas where the demand is and a surplus of properties in areas with low demand.

Likewise there may be enough housing stock based on a formula because young adults are living at home with parents but these adults contribute to the demand as they want to have a place of there own. If demand stays strong then the only way that prices will drop if there is a surplus of properties to buy/rent in the areas in demand which will lead to a drop in rents and house prices.

"population figures are incorrect and the housing stock is at full capacity"

How this is credible? It's surprising to hear this from you.