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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

1576577579581582951

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,627 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Are you trying to make a donkey out of yourself?

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users Posts: 154 ✭✭kleiner feigling


    Thanks for sharing that info.

    I was bamboozled as to where the new report was relating to deaths & ICU by vaccination status.

    The HPSC data is shaky at best, due to the "with covid" categorization rather than anything to do with symptoms / reason for admission / comorbidities etc.

    As someone who works with stats every day, I find the packaging of the data deeply troubling.

    It smacks of incompetence or plain old obfuscation, and I sense many of the disagreements among the public and here on boards can be directly attributed to the confusion that results from poor data collection and analysis.



  • Registered Users Posts: 242 ✭✭The Nu man in town


    Prof Lunn said they have consistently found, for a period of two or three months now, that around a quarter to a third of the people they survey who are visiting cafes, pubs or restaurants to dine indoors do not have their Covid cert checked.


    Another NPHET informer.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,310 ✭✭✭bloopy


    Unfortunately the new style HSPC report makes almost impossible to calculate the weekly ICU admissions and death notifications by vaccination status without going through months of other reports.

    This is because they have changed the start date of the reports from April 1st to June 27th.

    It may be possible to work it out again when the next report is released assuming they keep June 27th as the start date.

    By then the information will be two weeks out of date rather than one.

    This is because the current report only goes as far as the 20th of November which was also the end date of the old report released on the 26th.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,330 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Only 17% of cases were in the unvaxxed cohort in the most recent week, yet c.25% of the total population is unvaccinated from age 0-99+. I wonder how the "unvaxxed are causing all the cases" crowd will spin this one?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,310 ✭✭✭bloopy


    I will put up whatever I find but it is not a secret. The information is there. It is just that the way it is produced makes it very difficult to interpret.

    I can do the easy ones but only someone who knows what they are doing might be able to trawl through the rest.



  • Registered Users Posts: 154 ✭✭kleiner feigling


    Yes, I spotted that there was no additional data from 20th Nov onwards, so we are missing quite a bit of recent data.

    In my view there is no reasonable excuse for pooling data into arbitrary groupings (April to present day, June 27th to present day etc.).... which begs the question, why is it being presented in such a convoluted manner?

    I had been saving the weekly reports in order to track ICU & Deaths by week. The pattern is all over the place, it doesn't make for any clear trend.

    In recent weeks there were individual weeks where unvaccinated people made up +70% of ICU but two weeks later it was fully vaccinated making up +70% ICU. Such erratic data suggests there are major confounders at play, and problems in the way the data is being collected.

    GIGO - garbage in, garbage out. Everyone should be concerned by this as it undermines the credibility of the stats being flung at us on a daily basis.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,576 ✭✭✭bennyl10


    How does that conflate to recent hospitalisation though?

    is fairly clear that with community transmission a higher number of cases will be in vaccinated, as that’s the vast majority of the community. That’s nothing anti vaccination, it’s simple fact.


    the correspondence of those cases to hospitalisation is where we need to be looking



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,012 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    That's the thing. People blame unvaccinated but there are very likely some people who can't get vaccinated. It might be miniscule but as you say it's like 50 in ICU who are unvaccinated so it's a fecking miniscule amount anyway that are the "issue". Anyone who can't get unvaccinated for medical reasons are likely to need ICU treatment if they get covid so this could be a whole lot of nothing in regards treatment of the unvaccinated.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,786 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Here is the UK latest data


    Certainly a lot of covering it up going on. This morning the experts are giving out pure lies about it


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,310 ✭✭✭bloopy


    Yeah the icu charts in particular make no sense. There is no trends popping up whatsoever.

    The deaths on the other hand wee showing a definite trend but not one that was going to be reported.

    Another thing I found curious was a news report from two weeks ago where a single line mentioned that there are 24 people in ICU since June. The vaccination status of that 24 was not mentioned.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,892 ✭✭✭the kelt


    I think you should be asking the question as to how in 2021 in a first world country with one of the highest per capita spends on health in the EU finds itself in a situation where with a population of 5 million having around 50 people in icu means your're left in limbo rather that blaming "de unvaxxed" just cos the man on the telly tells you they're the problem.



  • Registered Users Posts: 242 ✭✭The Nu man in town


    A stay at home order for the unvacced would be a lot fairer at this point.

    Only leave home for essential reasons.

    €5000 fine or 30 days in prison. Place all the emphasis on them, not businesses policing them or kids wearing masks etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,330 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Surgeries have been deferred and cancelled every winter for years due to capacity issues in Irish hospitals. For example from 2018: HSE Winter Plan highlights vulnerability of scheduled surgery – RCSI President - Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland and from 2017: Surgeries at Cork hospital cancelled for two weeks as flu and 'revelry' make their impact (thejournal.ie)

    You really have to hand it to government & HSE PR that they have manged to deflect criticism of years of government incompetence and mismanagement away from themselves and onto the bogeyman of the unvaxxed. Unfortunately people are buying it and absolutely lapping it up as they have a nice handy bogeyman to direct their ire at i.e. the "unvaxxed", while the government and HSE get off scot-free.



  • Registered Users Posts: 77 ✭✭ganoga




  • Registered Users Posts: 242 ✭✭The Nu man in town


    No fear they will publish research dissing Nolans failed models.



  • Registered Users Posts: 242 ✭✭The Nu man in town


    They have their excuse for this year's trolley crisis in the bag already.



  • Registered Users Posts: 568 ✭✭✭72sheep


    The media will always misreport any data in order to generate fear. Normally they will just fabricate conclusions with impunity - but somehow our HSPC are also helpfully generating extraordinarily oscillating data, without explanation, for them to play with!

    Our Public Health team have an ethical duty of care to make known their concerns. Tony Holohan had a moment a couple weeks ago where he spoke out about vaccines and transmission. We need another one of those moments now. I think lots of people who are cautious about vaccines would have more trust in our HSE if we saw that type of leadership.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,657 ✭✭✭Doctor Jimbob


    I don't know which is worse - the fact that unvaccinated people are being used as an excuse for our annual winter hospital issues, or the fact that people are actually buying it.

    I think the unvaccinated are idiots, but the idea that they're to blame for any bed shortages is preposterous.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    25% of cases are in under 12s. 100% of whom are unvaccinated. You may want to re read the data source



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,432 ✭✭✭SusanC10


    Meanwhile in Germany, they have just appointed an Epidemiologist as Minister for Health.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/epidemiologist-karl-lauterbach-germany-health-minister-olaf-scholz/?s=08



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,918 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    So 42% of daily cases are unvaccinated.

    So obviously not causing all the cases, but still a big chunk. And of course 25% of them in a group who can't get vaccinated. Still plenty of unvaccinated people out there for the virus to keep circulating at high numbers.

    Looks like the under 12's are driving the cases though, their % week on week has been increasing due to the **** show of stopping contact tracing in the schools.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,028 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    why are you treating them with kid gloves?

    these people are a danger to humanity and could cause the collapse of western civilisation



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,657 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    He has studied epidemiology but has actually never practised as a doc or anything. He is a party politician first and foremost. But at least his qualifications match the new job. His predecessor was a banker. Not that thats in anyway remarkable. Most ministers dont actually seem qualified for their resort. So I give him that.

    But he's on every talk show and in every paper every single day (literally). He is Germany's number one shrill doom monger. To the point where I have wondered in the past if there was something wrong with him. And I dont think thats just my bias talking. He comes across as a bit unhinged. He's like Claire Byrne with a party affiliation.

    As for his appointment I'm actually surprised. I thought he was going to be the useful idiot dropped the moment the elections were won. Like the Farage of covid.

    Having said all that I think he's genuine to some degree. While he talks in the most pessimistic superlatives only and has spread nonsense himself he has called out other people's nonsense in the past, too. He is nobody's fool that way. For that I'll give him the benefit of doubt. And like I said at least what he's talking about has its roots in actual qualification.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    It's funny those laying the blame at hospital capacity, clearly ignoring the wave of much harsher restrictions across Europe. I've a colleague arrived back today from a European tour who had to skip Austria because of their lockdown, and a relative who arrived in the Netherlands for work yesterday, basically has to stay in his room after 5pm because there's literally nothing open. Even the hotel bar & restaurant is closed, room service only. Germany, Belgium, lots of others imposing far worse restrictions than we are.

    Is our capacity sh1t? It sure is. Are the new restrictions necessary? No. Are the unvaccinated a problem? Abso-****-lutely. Even the UK, the shining light of the let 'er rip brigade, is bringing back in restrictions to protect their hospitals from the unvaccinated.

    This is a much more complex problem than, "If our hospitals were up to scratch we'd need no restrictions". Would we have less restrictions? Oh for sure. Would we still need masks & certs for indoor spaces and be stressing over infection rates in kids? Yes, we absolutely would.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,487 ✭✭✭floorpie


    Are the unvaccinated a problem? Abso-****-lutely

    You seem to know a lot about the problem of the unvaccinated, can you explain more about the composition of unvaccinated people (demographics, conditions, reason for being unvaccinated etc), particularly those in ICU?



  • Registered Users Posts: 777 ✭✭✭Pdoghue


    I'm not sure I agree with this. We have one of the highest vaccination rates in Europe, and our hospital numbers are relatively stable now. Therefore vaccines are clearly working, and I'm in favour of vaccinating as many as possible. But the vaccination rates are lower in the countries you mentioned and that's why they've had to reintroduce restrictions. I'm not convinced that the remaining unvaccinated numbers in Ireland are causing such a drain on hospital resources. And I also believe they shouldn't, i.e. in a rich first world country with the high level of vaccination we have, and with what we know about the dangers Covid poses to various age groups, we should be able to cope better.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,742 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    Why would we still need certs? They achieve nothing from a health perspective. I get masks, I get (though often disagree with) other restrictions. But the certs are nonsense, they aren't stopping infections. The only valid argument I can see is to encourage people to get vaccinated, but there aren't even making that argument.



  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Lately I have found myself zoning out from all of this nonsense. It's clear now that:

    1) Vaccines and boosters won't end the hysteria

    2) The numbers don't matter. If the powers that be want restrictions there will be restrictions.

    3) There is currently no real appetite for normality to resume.

    It looks to me like Europe has no real plan other than hopeless restrictions. I reckon we have a few years of this before money really starts to dictate strategy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,947 ✭✭✭dominatinMC


    To be fair, we have higher vaccination rates than the countries you cited, it may only be a couple of percentage points, but they clearly do matter. And I don't agree with your last paragraph whatsoever. If we had enough/more than enough hospital capacity, why would there be any restrictions for a largely-vaccinated public? And kids don't get sick.

    Also, what restrictions are UK bringing back? Masks in indoor settings is all I've seen.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,940 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    Does anyone here know ICU nurses ? I do . A huge percentage of our unvaxxed in ICU are non nationals. They don't read the Indo, watch prime time or Claire Byrne .

    Covid certs aren't going to make them get vaccinated.


    Looking to increase our vaccine uptake is a pointless argument



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,002 ✭✭✭Theboinkmaster




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    It was always going to be very slow once we achieved close to maximum vaccination. Over time they will pick off some more but probably not that many. I believe there are now specific campaigns in certain communities to try to encourage them to get vaccinated. In some of those communities the vaccination rates are very low so it makes sense to target them. 

    COVID certs for anything other than travel are a NPHET invention. If the government could drop them tomorrow they would as they have no great fondness for them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,906 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    They may have inadvertently been a bribe to get vaccinated at first, but at 92+% eligible done, they won't make a difference to the rest.

    Where they do make a difference is reducing the chances of the unvaccinated getting infected (where they are 12x more likely to end up in hospital and take up a bed) and if they do, from spreading it to others, where the reduction in transmission wanes from vaccination time but still appears to be apparent (even in the home setting with almost continued exposure). Maybe an age cert would be better but good luck with your political career after doing it (+ everyone can get vaccinated, people can't be younger no matter how much they try).

    Even the UK is bringing them in (Wales, NI, Scotland, Boris doesn't give a sh*t about the English) along with every other European country, country's with the highest vax uptake are also seeing the lowest hospitalisation rates.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    The argument is open-ended. I noticed I wrote "need", when I meant, "If we wanted to access these spaces, we would need...". I didn't mean that that they would be necessary from a control perspective.

    I've said before there is considerable value is restricting access to high-risk spaces such as hospitals and nursing homes, to the fully vaccinated only. But I'm less sold on anywhere else.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,786 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Amazing stuff from Sweden really, just getting on with it. No idea if vaccines were much to do with it or not but it seems to of worked.

    Even with Delta going around the amount of over 65's going to hospital and ICU is crazy low compared to others.Will be interesting to see what things look like in a couple of months when it looks like those just above them seem to be just kicking off again.



    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    and the UK which was been back to normal for a long time



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,767 ✭✭✭Pinch Flat


    Covid certs aren't just unique to this country. I was in Germany and France a few weeks back - covid certs required every where. Hotels, restaurants, bars, tourist attractions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,676 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    All COVID test centers closed in Cork tomorrow because of the red warning.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Yeah, but other countries are using them to try to force up low vaccination rates. Our government didn't voluntarily choose to use them and the original plan was to drop them from hospitality on October 22.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,141 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    Amazing stuff from Sweden really, just getting on with it.

    That's a weird framing, as if Sweden have simply willed their ICU numbers lower.

    If we had those ICU levels we could be "just getting on with it" too.

    Their success is probably down to strong immunity from infection and vaccination, which combine potently.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,125 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    And possibly the fact that they rarely closed anything - just empowered people to be responsible?

    Capacity limits and curfews restrict supply but not demand for socialising, and just pushes people to socialise in denser and less-regulated environments.

    Swedish bars and restaurants have been open almost as normal for most of the pandemic. A lot more than ours certainly. Also as with the UK, there was definitely something to be said for allowing everything as normal during summer to build up immunity in advance of respiratory virus season.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭GeorgeBailey




    The countries across Europe have harsher restrictions because they have more people in hospital. If we had their hospital/ICU capacity with our current numbers of patients we wouldn't need restrictions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,786 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Good point Lumen, i think they did not vaccinate a huge % of the country though.

    Figures i get are 1.9 AZ & 4.9 PZ.

    I know they did ban one of them to be given to under 65's early on and kept it that way and donated the excess ones to other countries.

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,918 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    It's just down to waves occurring at different times. As always, people pick a country doing well and highlight it. A few weeks later they start their wave and they are quickly forgotten about. We had this weeks ago when Western Europe was increasing and Eastern Europe were doing very well. It's a pattern that has been happening all though out this pandemic.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,330 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    What do you mean if they "could drop them they would"? The government brought them in so why can't they drop them?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    At the behest of NPHET and I'd expect them to drop them as soon as they think they can.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,330 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Well then we're back to who is actually calling the shots - NPHET or the government.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,786 ✭✭✭brickster69


    C'mon man cases don't matter. Look the ICU numbers while Delta is in full flow around Europe. Yet we all know that those that go into ICU are older people but it just seems like it is not happening for some reason.


    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



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