Storm Barra - December 7th/8th 2021

The 12z ICON has shifted south by about 100 miles, and would cut off long intervals of the strong winds for west Munster although not all of them so warning level winds would still occur, just with interruptions. Will need to see any confirmation of this trend on other models before taking it very seriously though. There's always one model, it seems, that loses the plot near the end of the marathon.

The new ICON solution would make this an east wind storm for most of the country north of Galway to Dublin, would probably increase the risk of snow accumulations on higher ground in Connacht and Ulster.

Will be a while before other models update so check back 4 to 5 pm for a more comprehensive look at the full range of 12z guidance.

I apologise, I didn't mean to be disrespectful.

Its just that every single thread like this has this exact same point made repeatedly.

The county based weather warnings are there because they are easy to communicate and administer. There is no precise spot where something changes from a red alert to a orange or yellow alert, people are going to use their own judgement most of the time. Yes, the weather may not be equally bad throughout an entire county, and for bigger counties like Cork, you may go directly from Red to yellow in a neighbouring county, but that is deemed acceptable to make the system easier to communicate and administer.

Should a school principle have to make the decision on whether to open or close? No, if it's orange they open, if it's red they close. Easier for everyone to understand, the parents can't get mad, and the principle can't take undue risks.

Nope. Though winds will be very dangerous in the West and North tomorrow evening so stay in.

Arpege and GFS 12z have similar track and intensity to previous runs, so not doing the ICON shift.

The last time Waterford was Orange and Cork Red there was a swathe of ground from Dungarvan to Limerick /Tipperary border that got absolutely hammered, well into Red. The real problem is that wind doesn't follow county boundaries. So as you say, experience of previous events should do more to inform decisions about planning, damage mitigation, travel, power outages etc. than any simplistic map. So in West Waterford I'm going to assume the worst and if it doesn't happen, happy days. I'm not going to blame Met Eireann.

all eyes on the ECM then! Is Icon considered reliable?

Not as reliable, and if it becomes odd man out very unlikely to be onto something. But first time for everything ...

Almost all other guidance now has the track of the low into Galway Bay and through the midlands to east Ulster. UKMO has shifted a bit to the north of previous runs but is still south of other guidance, south Clare to Dublin track now.

This thread is experiencing rapid cyclogenesis!

/BINGO

Fastnet 191 km/h

Roches Point 156 km/h

Kinsale 141 km/h

Sherkin Island 137 km/h

Cork Airport 137 km/h

Im in Tipp,

Should i tell herself to bring in the washing?

Charts have had Waterford / SE borderline by my reading - I was surprised we stayed Yellow for as long as we did. It will be interesting to see what transpires

Thank you Clare,Kerry and Cork for shielding us here in Limerick.

GEM also stays with the thundering herd, model sheepdogs have been sent out to bring ICON back to the fold.

Satellite imagery at 1600h showing the probable location of the developing centre at 50N 25W.

Model consensus before we see the ECM is for a landfall around 1300h near Galway Bay. Strongest wind zone remains south Clare to south coast. Thinking Tipps and Kilkenny should probably expect orange alert conditions as suggested by some earlier.