12th Annual Boards White Christmas Thread!

Rebelbrowser · 29-11-2021 11:56am

This is my third time typing this message - gotta love this new website....

Anyway...

Looking at today's CFS there does appear to be a trend toward high pressure / an easterly component to our Christmas weather. Upper temps nothing to write home about (the flow doesn't actually originate in the east / north east) but I suspect it would feel pretty seasonal by day with night frosts. Also, with the weather coming from that direction much better chance of "upgrades" in terms of snow prospects. See a couple of charts below (being the pressure situation and the 2m temps on the big day).

and

By a few days later things are cooling down but still nothing spectacular...

and

So not a bad update all in all. With all the crap going on in the world, it would be nice if we had a real run at a white Christmas this year.

To keep with the theme, as usual I'm pasting a seasonal pic below. This time its my favourite photo from the March 2018 spell, an incredible drone shot making Cork's St. Finbarr's cathedral look even more stunning than usual....

Rebelbrowser · 01-12-2021 3:28pm

Things getting interesting if the CFS is to be believed (and to caution immediately, its a long range model so its rarely right!). It suggests a prolonged cold spell is on the way (nothing epic but snow possibilities a plenty) from next Tuesday, 6 December until in and around 20 December. Then unfortunately it warms up for a few days, including the big day unfortunately, but by Stephen's day we are back in a cold spell with snow prospects a plenty well into New Year. Indeed it has snow on the ground by midnight on Christmas day so it probably foresees a technically White Christmas. With that general trend, it must heighten the prospects for a White one. If CFS has the general trend right it is doing very well. I wouldn't worry at all about forecasts for specific days until you are 10 or less days out. I should also say that the GFS which is a higher resolution model does not support this pattern over the first half of December (far more Atlantic driven but not mild by any means and may even be some flakes with their forecast also).

Some sample CFS charts are below..

As always, will leave you with a festive pic, this time its Dublin's Temple Bar...

Danno · 08-12-2021 9:57am

Tomorrow sees Christmas Day enter FI territory on the GFS...

Christmas Eve is on today's GFS outer reaches and doesn't look good at all...

pauldry · 08-12-2021 2:19pm

Ya there's zero chance of a white one this year unless you buy some snow machine. Weather will be quite benign once Barra is finished with us. An odd breezy and wet day but temperatures rising after this relatively cool period. Could be quite dry all the way to Christmas(that week)

Billcarson · 08-12-2021 5:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118290048#Comment_118290048

For how long could they rise for though.? My money would be on a cold frosty Christmas atm.

mcburns07 · 08-12-2021 5:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118290048#Comment_118290048

Can you post a link to this model you're referring to that's reliable 17 days ahead? :P

Rebelbrowser · 08-12-2021 8:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118291194#Comment_118291194

Agree, even if it is "faux" cold as some describe it. Right now it looks like it could be high pressure from 16 Dec onwards. After 8 or 9 days of high pressure you'd expect to start seeing all day frosts in sheltered areas. Of course even the High pressure forecast is in FI

pauldry · 08-12-2021 11:05pm

The fact that an Atlantic High is lodging over us brings hope of dry but there's absolute zero chance of snow on Xmas Day.

Ya we may get a few frosty nights but at least its going to be dry. This trend has been in place 90percent of the time on the GFS. On the odd run they show some cold but I think it will be more interesting cold wise around the New Year.

Danno · 09-12-2021 12:14am

This evening's 18Z from the GFS has this for Christmas Eve! 😍

Danno · 09-12-2021 12:23am

Stunning GFS 18z FI run! In these charts there already is a couple of centimetres of snow widely across the west and north by tea-time on Christmas Eve!

mcburns07 · 09-12-2021 12:25am

We can dream Danno 😂

Danno · 09-12-2021 12:25am

Just need a polar low for the whole country to have a White Christmas!

Lets hope the GFS keeps this Christmas north-northeasterly on the cards in future runs!

Remember, tomorrow's 6z run shows Christmas Day! 😀

Gonzo · 09-12-2021 12:34am

Nice GFS 18z, proves that after next week anything is possible for Christmas: mild and dry, cold and dry, mild and wet, bitterly cold and dry, bitterly cold and snowy.

Least likely options are mild and wet along with bitterly cold and snowy. The placement of next week's high and where it goes after next week will be critical to the outcome on Christmas Day.

As for tonights 18z would like to see a bit more of a north-easterly rather than a northerly which leaves most of the country high and dry. The 18z is most likely an outlier too, will know in the next hour or two.

bazlers · 09-12-2021 6:45am

Interesting, MT mentions energy peak just before Christmas too. All bets are still on.

Im going for a 2 day white out. 2 feet of level snow and car swallowing drifts!

Not much to ask for ;)

09-12-2021 8:01am

I was going to post this video in one of the politics threads to rile both sides in the culture wars but I think it will be equally appreciated here. Nice short interview w/ a snowflake researcher who can create identical, artificial snowflakes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ao2Jfm35XeE

pauldry · 09-12-2021 12:34pm

I'm going to keep saying there's zero chance of a white one and maybe the weather will cut my nose off to spite my face.

Its certainly not complete mild and Bland. We seem to have got that bit out of the way.

Rebelbrowser · 10-12-2021 12:08pm

Worth pasting MTCs forecast this morning here. It covers from middle of next week onwards. What he states is beginning to look the more likely scenario, that it should be cool enough come the big day...

".... It should stay rather mild although nights could be closer to freezing than during the breezy mild spell. Highs will remain around 10 C. Eventually the high will drift somewhat further west allowing colder air to seep in from the northeast. This could be quite gradual over the days leading up to Christmas, then it could start to turn quite cold as northerly winds develop. Details will remain sketchy for a while yet, and so far there are no indications of severe cold but it may not be all that far away by the holiday week...."

Gonzo · 10-12-2021 12:16pm

High pressure is going nowhere fast on the latest GFS. We look high and dry and i'll take that. Warm uppers but with clear skies fog and frost would be a real possibility leading to much lower temperatures on the surface and could be quite seasonal to look at. Far better than having a raging Atlantic. Could well be a white Christmas in Athens tho.

esposito · 10-12-2021 12:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118300042#Comment_118300042

Mad the way Greece gets lucky with the white stuff so often.

All most of us are asking for is one week to 10 days of bitterly cold -8 uppers and snow showers piling in from the Irish Sea between now and end of February. Not much to ask for is it 🙄

pauldry · 10-12-2021 3:49pm

I don't want snow Dec 28th as I have to travel but Dec 25th would be nice or Christmas Eve night. But I think it looks remote. Dry and cold for now though usually closer to the time some rain seeps in.

Beanstalk · 10-12-2021 5:38pm

I'll take the dry and cold. It's been a good few years since we even had that!

pauldry · 10-12-2021 5:51pm

After 17 days of rain or showers in the NW in a row so far (soon to become at least 20) dry and cold would be very welcome.

Billcarson · 11-12-2021 1:09am

Must be a very reasonable chance that the last week of Dec could be the coldest last week of December since 09.

Rebelbrowser · 12-12-2021 2:37am

GFS charts all day showing an easterly component not far away come Xmas. You'd never know....

Rebelbrowser · 13-12-2021 12:50am

The 12z ECM out to 22 December looks interesting (for cold and snow prospects) as others have posted on the T120+ thread.....

Danno · 13-12-2021 1:52am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118312763#Comment_118312763

Hopefully the trends stay kind for us. Have a big HP in the vicinity and work on the details about 6 or 7 days out. In any other year this would be "all to play for!"

Rebelbrowser · 13-12-2021 1:06pm

Won't cross post but Gonzos post this morning in the T120+ thread well worth a read. A lot of reason for hope that we might yet get a white Christmas, certainly snow before NYE looks very possible

Danno · 15-12-2021 11:39pm

Tonight's ECM 😍

Rebelbrowser · 16-12-2021 10:10am

Fabulous ECM (the best Model) run this morning showing biting easterly winds kicking in just about when Santa will be arriving. This looks like our best chance of a White Christmas in all the years of this thread. Will post charts in a while....

Rebelbrowser · 16-12-2021 10:24am

These are the ECM upper temps for the Christmas day period. With the weather coming mostly overland from the east (as opposed to travelling for 3,000 miles over the mild Atlantic to our west) then these cold upper air temps won't get modified too much upwards and so the air will be cold enough all the way from cloud to ground to support snow. Moreover upper air that cold travelling over the Irish sea will generate streamers (lake effect snow showers - google it) which, depending on wind direction, means snow showers all along east and south east facing coasts - think of the places that got snow in the first days of the 2018 Beast. Nine days to go so hardly set in stone (or anything like that) but very promising...

The chart below shows widely -8 and lower upp er temps over Ireland. From that direction -6 or so uppers will more than suffice to support snow and -8 will generate streamers (you need a 13c difference between sea temps and the air above , Irish Sea sea temps will be ca. 10c).

12th Annual Boards White Christmas Thread!

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