General British politics discussion thread

It is funny how the biggest scandals are essentially superficial stuff and nothing to do with how badly they are running the country, ie cummings car trip, hancocks affair and now johnsons party, maybe each is just a straw that broke the camels back at the time.

North Shropshire (Paterson by-election) on Thursday 16th looking increasingly important now.

Tories defending 63% so it should be a shoo-in with a reduced margin (like Bexley & Sidcup last week) where winning with 50%+ would be acceptable. But it seems to be very much 'in play' for the Lib Dems (10% in 2019), with Labour not really trying too hard. I think the Tories scrape it but with the kind of swing which will panic any MPs with single digit majorities.

Truly fascinated to see how Johnson handles this at the despatch box today. Will he continue to simply double down and deny it, brazen his way out of it and go on the attack as he usually does? Would seem kind of risky given there is quite a bit of unease on the backbenches and the strong possibility of more damaging revelations yet to come. Some kind of mealy mouthed non-apology apology would probably be advisable, cut his losses somehow, but just not sure he has it in him tbh.

Two questions I've been pondering:

1. Who is drip-feeding these stories to the media? Whoever it is knows exactly how things work. Downing Street is hunkering down hoping that the news cycle moves on but it cannot because new information keeps getting leaked. This has all the hallmarks of a targeted leak designed to maximise the damage to Johnson. The question is - who would benefit from that? Michael Gove? Rishi Sunak? Somebody else?
2. Is there anyone else that Johnsons could throw to the wolves that would make this go away? Nobody else is obviously associated with it at this time so I have my doubts.

I actually find that find the video of Reece Mogg from a few days ago alot worse imo.

They're saying now that an announcement is likely to be made later today about moving to Plan B to tackle the new variant, which would, of course, involve fresh restrictions. The right thing to do, perhaps, but how would that play in the circumstances? Tory backbenchers would be absolutely fuming for a start.

I think they will ride it out. They have a huge majority and a weak opposition leader. This is not unlike the phil Hogan scenario here but doubt any heads will roll.

Tory backbenchers have already been quoted as remarking on the Christmas party news as the new Bernard Castle and, more pointedly, that the next lockdown will be "advisory" in all but name regardless of what the government says because the public will pay it little heed as a result

Edit: was a recognisable fairly senior (male) Tory MP quoted; just cannot remember whom, but was from either an article or a twitter citation of same from this morning.

Just looking on the betting exchanges, the Lib Dems are just about edging favouritism for the North Shropshire by election next week. There's no way there won't be more bad news emerging for Johnson between now and then. No idea how this pans out but losing that by election would be a huge body blow as electability is really the only saving grace he has left among many of his mps.

Doubt it brings down Johnson but maybe JRM? I mean he cites the social distancing rules and makes fun of them. His arrogant head on a platter may be just the pound of flesh the public and media will take.

Another factor is that it now looks like the Met are involved. If it was to end up with retrospective prosecutions, this would be hugely embarrassing for any government party.

The government shouldn't have their backs if they are not following the Covid rules. The person leaking this is a whistle blower and in the right. Honestly pouring all your scorn on the leaker rather than the person's not following the rules is a bit strange.

Sorry, correcting myself it was Charles Walker