Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

We have very little information on vacant property. One of the biggest owners of vacant property are the LA.

The problem with vacant property is the cost of doing it up. Legally you have to bring it to Ber rating A or B. At present building costs are 130-200/ sqft depending on where in the country you are. Building that are vacant for 10 it more years may need serious amount of work to become habitable.

An an awful lot of these properties are along streets of towns and villages. Many have not been lived in for 20 years or more as people moved away from living directly on streets in towns and villages. Many have been accumulated by individuals either as an investor or through inheritance.

Then there is the accommodation above commercial premises that have become virtually impossible to use through fire regulations and insurance costs.

If we assume most of these need complete refurbishment at, near or maybe above new build costs you see the problem. A thousand sqft building would cost 100-200k to refurbished and that might only be to builders finish

If you then decide to rent it is there an economic return. Assuming that the dearest costs if refurbishment is in Dublin and the cheapest in rural Ireland then looks at the returns. Many of these smaller properties would be 2 or 3 bed. In Dublin 2-2.5k/ month or 22-27k/ year( allowing for vacancy between rentals) on a 200k investment on paper seems good but in reality with Irish tax laws is not very attractive. You also have to factor in present rental laws and

In a small town or village, it might make 6-800/ year or 6.5-9k, with a larger risk of vacancy as well as probably providing HAP housing.

Rte should start a show called hammered homes to compete with homes under the hammer. This show will detail all the reasons why homes under the hammer is a fraud and old houses are useless and Eveything must be new.

CIF have offered to sponsor the show

There has always been this kind of thing going on I did this with my first mortgage as well to meet the LTV ratio needed to get the loan and we were not in a bubble when this happened.

With Avant cutting their interest rates from tomorrow, would people expect other providers to follow suit in the coming weeks/start of new year to remain competitive?

No good reason to object. That is the N11 going outside the development, a main road from Dublin City all the way south through Wicklow with multiple bus routes going right outside the door. Further, it is not a far walk into town from the development. There are zero residential streets to be burdened with the new development so any objections are fundamentally and absolutely NIMBY based.

Will be good to see that development go up as Kielys is a large premises sitting idle for a few years at this stage which is tragic for a village so close to the city centre. Donnybrook as a village has a large number of vacant commercial premises, it looks like a bit of a kip at the moment.

Probably not. As discussed just recently, Avants lending criteria is so strict they only lend to only the most prime borrowers which rules outs the vast majority of folk looking for a mortgage. The other lenders know this.

Yeah its a funny one, a combination of Nimbys, poor public transport and other social trends are slowly killing any life that was in that area.

Yes (to avail of the lowest rates) - Because the vast majority of borrowers don't have 20% deposits, LVRs, serviceability & income criteria. Also it is not available in all locations - typically major urban areas. My broker said he doesnt write a lot of loans as they are only interested in taking the cream (i.e. lowest risk borrowers). Doesnt seem like a strategy in attracting market share.

There's even a view held on other forums that Avant's not in it for the long term in the Irish market.

They have broadened the locations (it is nationwide now) and the majority of mortgage holders will meet the leverage requirements (this isnt just new mortgages it is switchers also). I dont think that stands up to scrutiny to be honest.

Houses in say Mapas estate have gone extremely expensive, nothing under €800k, these days which is somewhat extreme. The same goes for normal houses around Hyde Park, granted not 4 bedrooms plus, and neighbouring roads in Glenageary estates. Where total wrecks are going for €750k (and well over asking) but still need at least €200k work. These are all mind boggling figures.

Evergrande is officially in default and has been downgraded by Fitch - the next couple of years are going to be catastrophic for China.

Closer to home. the Central Bank's deputy governor had a speech published today on the regulator's website. One thing that drives me mad is seeing statements along the lines of "It's expensive in Ireland, but....it's expensive in other places", like what does that mean? How is it a "but"? A but in this context is generally, in my experience, used by those who don't want to see affordability challenges overcome and essentially are pretty happy with the status quo in the housing market "No sex please, we're Irish". Unsurprising from our Central Bank to see such a pitiful ode to the crisis, I've already stated my position on their post-08 performance.

Her statements smack of the "thoughts and prayers" comments on social media when someone has died or "share to raise awareness"; utterly useless and self-serving. However, you'd think the deputy governor of the regulator might be more concerned about house prices rocketing to Celtic Tiger levels, increasing 90%+ in 9 years. "This time it's different" - for sure it ain't.

https://www.centralbank.ie/news/article/housing-policy-should-focus-on-the-sustainable-supply-of-housing-to-meet-the-growing-needs-of-citizens-deputy-governor-sharon-donnery-9-december-2021

"Thoughts and prayers".

She gets paid for making comments like that?