The Omicron variant

SAGE in the UK has done it again, extrapolating a scenario from 'we dont have the data yet' right to 'but we expect x and x, so". Im sorry to see this series of non sequiturs play out again, almost like they did at the beginning of the pandemic. Have these people learned anything? It puts science in a bad light and the idea of modeling as a super shaky series of unwarranted assumptions. I really hope we are not going to do the same thing in Ireland but i kind of expect it..

The UK has been working without any real covid restrictions for months know. No masks, no covid certs, no real distancing requirements, no limits on capacity. So they are just introduced some sensible measures which they might have needed without Omicron.

They didn't want to introduce any restrictions at all but it turns out that wasn't realistic. Ireland keeping some low level restrictions will be to its advantage.

How many cases do you think these restrictions will prevent? And for how long? Give me a percentage, any variable. It's bloody wishful thinking and bad science. No, it is not even science but a series of unsubstantiated assumptions.'we don't have the time to wait for hard data'. Do you realise how stupid and unscientific that sounds?

You could instead say: based on the data from South Africa it is reasonable to assume... but no, they dont.They just look at case numbers and pluck a number of hospitalisations out of the air or they say something silly like: 300% rise in hospitalisations, without context, percentages or numbers. Ah, no time to wait for real evidence here, we must tell the government to impose restrictions. Idiotic and baseless. Despicable..

Omicron is likely to take over and there is nothing that can stop that.

By the way, i am not against some restrictions like masks on public transport and in crowded situations but its all a mixed bag. Not solutions but trade offs.

Why dont you watch that video of dr. Been with like, real on the ground reality in context with previous waves?

We probably won't know for certain about its effects til January.

It does look good though.

Second Irish Omicron genome uploaded to GISAID (Dublin; last one was from Meath).

And here is another scenario you dont often hear about and is more likely to happen given what we know from previous variant transitions:

If Omicron is more transmissable and with milder symptoms it will elbow out Delta in a short period of time. So, instead of the 40.000+ Delta daily cases we might have 60.000 (?) Omicron cases and hospitalisations actually will go down w patients staying on average 2 days io 8 w Delta, let alone patients ending up in ICU which is not happening with Omicron atm. Plus, we know from previous waves (and that's why we call them that!) that there will be a peak after which cases will go down so the idea of perpetual exponential growth has its limits. But instead we seem to have the Omicron cases added to the Delta ones in scenarios which is actually LESS likely given previous experiences.

I would give the positive scenario a 2:1 chance over a negative one. And that is a cautious view..

You mean the precise scenario everyone is hoping happens?

The thing with your made up numbers is that you've made Omicron 50% more transmissible than Delta so it needs to be more than 50% less deadly to achieve your goal of fewer hospitalisations. Will it be so much less deadly? We don't know. It could be 50% more transmissible and only 20% less deadly in which case hospitalisations would go up.

In reality we would just change our behaviour through additional restrictions. The UK modelled that Omicron doubling every 2 or 3 days so they changed their behaviour with the Plan B measures which will change the rate at which Omicron spreads. The scenarios that show a million cases by 1st January assume everyone behaves exactly the same as they are now. But in reality there will be changes like schools and businesses closing down over Christmas and there will be additional restrictions in the UK and probably in Ireland too.

We're all waiting to see exactly how much more transmissible and how much less deadly Omicron is compared to Delta.

Of course they don't know. The situation is new and evolving and they're exploring it for the first time.

Would you prefer they say nothing until they're certain (there is no certainty in science) or tell you what they know as they find out, even if that information changes?

I'd actually them rather tell the truth, which is that they don't know. They don't know how effective their injections will be against Omicron, governments don't know how quickly it will spread or what the overall severity picture will look like, so the best thing they could and should say right now is that it looks like it's very contagious and people should have personal responsibility particularly if they are vulnerable themselves or live with vulnerable people. 🤷‍♀️

Yeah that's true. The long term doubling showing a hundred cases today and a million cases by the end of the month, is interesting but not realistic. Its always a bit shocking to see how fast doubling can build up from a small number to a big number, but in reality the virus would probably run out of people to infect and people's behaviour would change either voluntarily or through restrictions.

It wasn't an epidemiological model, it was a sum. And it wasn't done as infinitum, it doubled 11 times.

I think the real problem might be more an economical issue ie large amounts of people out of work due to both symptoms of Omicron and restrictions placed on positive cases..

pardon?