Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

what do you think happens to china, directly? cant see their being a huge fall out there, 2022 is a big year for Xi

Firstly, there is no crisis in 2020 or did I miss something? All economic, market and housing metrics showed incredible resilience and growth.

Why would there have been a crash already? We are still deeply entrenched in pandemic mode with unprecedented government and central bank support for the markets and the economy as well as draconian legal rules in place (eg eviction and travel bans, bar codes to enter businesses, limits on socialising etc). Of course there has been no crash as of yet because things are being propped up with absolutely extraordinary State measures. The issue with Evergrande and the global economic contagion risk from the impending Chinese economic crash is that we truly don't know what will happen as we know that globally China is a dominant economic force and the interlinking of economies around the world is a labyrinth so we just don't know what will happen outside of China. But one thing is for sure, that I think so long as you have the State so involved in every aspect of markets, the economy and our lives, things will trickle along a bit longer.

However, there is no orderly unwinding of the State's involvement in markets and the economy post-pandemic, with the problem being too much of a focus on looking back to what the economy was like pre-pandemic and not enough recalibration done to see how we shpuld evolve post-pandemic. What I mean by that is how will we see people being able to pay house prices and rents that are increasing 5-10% per year when there is no additional borrowing capacities introduced? How will investors look to get high commercial rental yields from empty offices in the likes of Dublin City? Where will the "front line economy workers" (ie baristas, delivery drivers, shop assistants, chefs, etc.) live if they can't actually afford to live on the wages these jobs pay? Quite simply, the economy is being strangled by high housing costs and will come to a consumption halt unless we see rapid wage inflation which of course will stoke the inflation flames to unsustainable levels.

"Firstly, there is no crisis in 2020 or did I miss something? All economic, market and housing metrics showed incredible resilience and growth."

Tell this to all those crashers here, you missed last years party on here. The property price crash was lagging 1 month, than 3 month, than 6 month, latest was until summer 2021 (end of lockdown)...

Here is the whole wikipedia page about the crisis:

Summary. There was crisis in 2008, there was crisis in 2020. And the ones who said "This time it's different" were right.

Yeah but the risk of a crash in china will be cushioned by the CCP. He wont want public discontent as he goes for a 3rd term, think common prosperity . The offshore holders will get burned, Xi will make sure the average joes are cushioned from any fallout. Most commentators seem to think they'll follow the path Japan took after their crash in the early90s. It'll be interesting to see does it effect any banks/shadow banks/funds in the west though.

can see why banks are getting out...

Over 5000 mortgages with more than 10 years of missed payments is madness and makes sense why banks are leaving alright.

Could be solved fairly easily too. Do a blitz of repossessions on the worst offenders and you will quickly find many find the means to start making payments where they hadn't been before. As it stands with no penalty they are happy to coast along letting the rest of us pick up the tab.

No one should be able to get to 10+ years of arrears.

Id have no issue with anything upto 5 years at that stage people should have been able to get themselves some what in order. Start repossessing after 6 years, 10+ is an absolute joke.

Sinn Féin now the leading party of middle class Ireland

Polls are polls but a consistent trend is starting to form, why are the middle classes turning their back on FF/FG?

DBS election.

One other observation is in relation to FG support among farmers which is its strongest voter base. FG being a party for landowners is clearly the takeaway and again with 80%+ of those under 34 not owning land in the 2016 census, FG would need to fundamentally change its identity to stop the rot

FG made a lot of promises to me on the disgusting amount of tax I pay. None of those promises have been kept.

Are we extending out the time of the expected crash again :)

I see no relevance in that link or any evidence to support your claim. Evergrande may well cause a sentiment crash, in all asset classes, but if it does, I doubt it will be any more long lived than the early 2020 Covid panic crash I took advantage of. As Clinton said, 'It's the economy, stupid' or words to that effect. Currently the US is at full employment with well over a million job openings unfilled.

If I were in China holding crypto, Evergrande would be of low concern compared to the Central bank making crypto <> fiat dealings illegal.

The link goes from Evergrande being a risk of the property market in China collapsing which would trigger wider economic woes in China as the property sector contributes a large part to GDP in China. Tether has extended billions in loans to Chinese companies and claims its stablecoins are backed by US dollars, with its stablecoins being traded for bitcoin far more than fiat currency is traded for bitcoin. So a Chinese economic crises would hit Tether which would have knock on effects for bitcoin and the wider crypto industry due to bitcoins status within the industry. Therefore anyone anywhere with some tin in crypto would be exposed to this Evergrande crisis.

I have a couple of points on parts of your post;

• Glossing over the immigrants point; if you look at our projected population growth, it is dominated by immigration resulting in the population increasing. What this translates to is firstly that it is an assumption at this stage that our immigration will remain high. If it doesn't then I think today's valuations could have problems sustaining themselves in the future. Another translation from this projection is that immigrants are typically not home buyers and will be renters - so big question is whether, when comparing today's rents to salaries, these rents are sustainable (let alone further increases in rents). The last point on that is on the political engagement by immigrants; if there is a link between their political engagement and those voting for higher house prices well then it is worth raising the possibility that we see more immigrant engagement with our political process and (noting they are typically renters and have no experience with SF's past) I think they would be likely to vote for policies aiming to view the housing market as something that is broken and needs fixing.
• On the young people buying aspect; the CSO from 2016 indicated that approximately 80% of those 25-34 were renters. I'm not questioning your anecdotal experience but just highlighting the bigger picture and in that context it is something worth noting that renters would actively welcome their rent crashing whereas homeowners would welcome their house price increasing. It is such a polarisation that, should the CSO data be relatively accurate, is likely to continue to increase rather than decrease.