What are your thoughts on the fertiliser price s for 2022

What single factor is there to see a price drop in March or April next year? Not even a small one.

Gas is already locked in for Spring and it's not at rates that encourage factories to open up production.

There is not even one, they are there for later in the year.

I had my lime man saying the same thing about drops in April.

India is paying whatever it takes to secure fertilizer.

It will come down next Summer, price drops in inputs for then are starting to appear. China has said it will open up exports in the Summer, it's by far the biggest fertilizer producer in the world.

It won't be next year that we see prices like last Spring.

Have your plan B in case.

Bang on …fertiliser will be at simillar or higher prices than now till at least next summer …like u said due to gas

An agent told me yesterday he has CAN for 690. He thinks it could go a bit higher. At least it'll be available.

Simple answer as much as I can …emphasis firstly will Be on securing winter 22 feed …grazing ground for cows will be sprinkles little and often and hope the bit of mss and clover in will save some chemical n ….I’m fully expecting high prices till June …bulk of years fertiliser is out by then

The merchants are a rounding error in this, they will sell it back internationally.

They aren't going to buy dear and be panicked into selling cheap when the world's biggest Fertlilizer market in Asia is well short and Governments there are paying whatever it takes.

Compared to much of the world, Fertlilizer can still be bought here at cheaper rates.

It probably the financial figures. 10k tons of mixed product is 7 million. 100k tons 70 million.

You want to be sure your customers pay up

It's a simple case of lack of funds I'd say and maybe waiting till January for the new tax year, the status quo of buying in Jan/Feb half your supply paying it off over the summer months is a non-runner, the great stories been told by the banks and teagasc that record profits made this year and lower overdrafts mean access to finance isn't really a issue is a tall tale I reckon, simply when you do the maths on landing a artic load of fertilizer in the yard you need to have circa 25k to cover it, for bigger operators multiple this by 3 plus and your talking six figure sums of money

The pinch point is supply of fertiliser at the moment. This has arisen due to the price of gas and supply chains being disrupted. Personally I feel that this issue won't be resolved until later next year, from may June on. What fertiliser to be used next spring is made. It's utter madness at this stage to be holding out until march for a price drop.

It's now time for farmers to sit down and make a plan for the first half of next year on what they really need and can afford at the current price. Put the head in the sand and hoping for a price drop is madness.

I'm a beef farmer and my fertiliser purchases for the year are mainly for 1st cut. I have some CAN left over and have picked up some urea 3 weeks ago at €890/tone. 10 ton would see me very comfortable in any year. Will work this year with 7-8 ton, as there is a serious wedge of fodder gathered over the past 2 years. Making better use of slurry, with a little and often approach.

This price flux may serve as a means for all farmers to re-evaluate the business. The drive for output, is a tricky one as it is influenced greatly by swings in inputs. A 10% reduction in output could serve us greatly as it would reduce the pressure on inputs by a greater factor than % thus leaving more profit. It's about finding a sweet spot that suits the farm, with pressures that arise be it feed, fert, weather etc

Everyone has to cut their cloth to measure and just get on with it. Plan for the worse and hope for the best. The only factors we can control is what goes on inside our own farmgate.

Instead of waiting next year to see if prices drop, another option would be to buy a little bit every month (if you need 100% of fert in 5 month time, you buy 20% per month). You may nit get it at the lowest price but you won’t get it at the highest neither but at least you are not opened to big trouble if prices increase in spring or there are no supplies.

If you absolutely need fert, waiting next year to see if price decreases to buy all you need looks like gambling.

Even if there was no global fertilizer problem, most lads in Ireland and probably Europe going to buy at the same time of year causes its own problems

Lads need to look within. Project your output and income and see how it pans out with current input prices and then make a call on it and forget about it. Running a business and making decisions involves managing different risks and scenarios and this is one of em.

The catch is that there's a bit more to organic farming than just not sticking a bit of bag manure out ( well that will work if your sticking rate is low enough) ..

But - if you plan it right you could minimise your fertilizer use during the year - if you're looking at a decent (conventional farming ) clover system then pretty much all the nitrogen you're going to use is going to be in the spring ...