Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Have you any evidence that this Irish local needs cráp that has been in place for a good while now, has made housing better available and more affordable for locals?

I no longer believe this one, as the same old complaints are still being made, long after measures were taken to keep f'rners out.

To be fair he is saying to take profits which I agree with. Just look at what the rich guys are doing; all selling down billions in equities the last 12 months.

People from 40 years of age on know there is no such thing as a free lunch. The only way SF can fullfil all there promises is to raise taxes. It the middle of the road couple that will end up paying that.

The real wealthy will go into tax exile. Older people with very good pensions will move to Portugal. If you over tax business it will shut down and shrink.

The idea of a super tax seem good on paper but many businesses will avoid it by limiting drawdowns.

So FF/FG in power for another 100 years. How bleak.

The developer view from glenveagh, some interesting points.

Note the close alignment between what glenveagh view as positive and Fianna Fail policy. The Galway tent has gone underground

This time it's different, indeed

a slump in plannings being sought - is it builders turning off the taps to keep housing scarce n pricey or is it uneconomic to build at the mo ?https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40763604.html

Commencements increased this year, so to answer your question, I would say neither one or other.

If you have high inflation people will use property as a hedge against inflation instead of leaving money in the bank which is an increase in demand.

Wage inflation is another story and if we do see it it will push up house prices because people will be able to borrow more.

rent should be protected by inflation because of the new rules 2% or inflation if lower.

The cost of building will rise which will mean a reduction in supply as certain projects become less profitable.

All of these factors = higher prices for property

No I don't expect it to run at 5% for a few years.

Don't know what you are trying to say all that I am pointing out is that high inflation for a sustained period will result in higher property prices. It has noting to do with different generations, wealth preservation, politics.... it's simple economics

Let me get this right.... you are saying that high inflation for a few years would not be a bad thing..... I highlight that high inflation for a sustain period would increase house prices and you start talking about Wealth preservation and Slavery...... I then try and explain that it is simple economics that houses prices will rise if we experience high inflation for a few years and you start talking about apple share price. What is the point you are trying to make?

Is it that the as a country we have problems with affordable housing.... Everyone knows that but its not as simple as get SF in and they will be able to fix it over night.

And just for clarification I don't expect that we will see high inflation for a few years because either the drivers of inflation fall away or if it does persist then the central banks will tap the brakes on the economy.

The main driver of inflation in the EU is oil and Gas at the moment and Oil has dropped 30% in the past few weeks. We have not seen wide spread inflation like the US is currently experiencing..... Who know's we may see this in time as the public's expectation of inflation drives prices and wages higher. I agree that if inflation is around for longer and becomes wide spread and not just in energy the central banks will have no option but to taper QE and then eventually raise rates. We are in a low interest rate environment and this will continue even if the EU increased the base rates because the ECB rate will still be negative as two or three 10bps rise over a year would be enough to slow down the economy and kill inflation.

The velocity of money is falling not increasing because QE increases the money supply and as a result it takes longer for money to circulate in the economy. For this reason it has become less of an important indicator in recent years.

I agree that supply chain issues will contribute to inflation. For me the real risk is China because inflation there will feed into world wide inflation.

The above graph shows the USA velocity of money and because of the liquidity trap it is unlikely to increase significantly because a lot of the money supply is locked into the banking system and financial markets so is not in circulation in the wider economy.

I'm just surprised that on one hand you are saying things could get messy very quickly and on the other hand you are saying that economy will be so strong that we will see the trend of a declining velocity of money will reverse.