Would you be happy for your children to receive covid-19 vaccine

faceman · 13-12-2021 10:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118316953#Comment_118316953

You’ve been selective in what you’ve quoted, neglecting this bit;

“COVID-19 vaccination should be offered to all other children aged 5 to 11 years because of the favourable benefit risk profile of the vaccine, to protect them from severe disease, the consequences that can follow infection”

And you’re ignoring it

Lumen · 13-12-2021 10:23pm

I'd actually argue that the most important bit is

Every effort should be made to avoid any adverse impact from the COVID-19 vaccination programme for children aged 5 to 11 years on the routine primary childhood and school immunisation programmes.

Translation: don't force it!

hometruths · 13-12-2021 10:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317285#Comment_118317285

I'm not ignoring it at all. Far from it. I looked specifically at: the favourable benefit risk profile of the vaccine, to protect them from severe disease, the consequences that can follow infection

I read the numbers on the risk of severe disease:

Pooled data from 10 EU/EEA countries shows that between 5 July to 3 October 2021, the weekly notification rates of symptomatic COVID-19 disease in children aged 5 - 11 years increased eleven-fold from 5.9 to 65 per 100,000 population. The weekly rate of hospitalised cases in children aged 5 - 11 years increased nine-fold, from 0.025 to 0.24 per 100 000 population and there were two deaths.

And then I looked at the numbers on the risks of side effects. On myocarditis, they didn't have data because the study size was too small. But they do mention the numbers from older age groups:

The EMA has evaluated the occurrence of vaccine associated myocarditis as very rare i.e., up to 10 in 100,000 vaccinated people may be affected. The risk is highest in younger males. 37 Studies have shown that after the second dose of Comirnaty there were about 2.6 extra cases of myocarditis per 100,000 males aged 12 - 29 years after seven days and 5.7 extra cases of myocarditis per 100,000 males aged 16 - 24 years after 28 days.

And I quickly realised that if the chances of myocarditis from vaccination were likely to be higher than the chances of hospitalisation maybe the risk/benefit was not so favourable after all.

And the consequences that could follow infection? Well they say that most significantly that is the risk of Long Covid and MIS-C.

NIAC state that Long Covid figures are:

UK data estimates the prevalence for those aged 2 - 11 years to be 0.2%.

And MIS-C? NIAC says

A large international cohort study on children with COVID-19 estimated MIS-C to affect between 0.5%-3.1% of all diagnosed paediatric COVID-19 patients and between 0.9%-7.6% of hospitalised paediatric COVID-19 patients.

And just in case any parent is spooked by these numbers, NIAC are quick to stress:

Information is not yet available about potential long-term sequelae. It is not known if vaccination will have an impact on long COVID or prevent MIS-C

I am not ignoring anything. I read the whole report.

Lumen · 13-12-2021 11:00pm

And I quickly realised that if the chances of myocarditis from vaccination were likely to be higher than the chances of hospitalisation maybe the risk/benefit was not so favourable after all

You're comparing different age groups. As I understand it myocarditis is not an issue for under 12s, and COVID risk is higher for over 12s.

In matched age groups known vaccine risk is lower than known Covid risk.

This is what favourable benefit risk profile of the vaccine means.

hometruths · 13-12-2021 11:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317527#Comment_118317527

The reason I am comparing different age groups is that is the only data NIAC present in their report. As they say themselves:

The number of subjects in the trials does not allow detection of rare or very rare adverse events such as myocarditis and follow-up is ongoing

And they also say specifically re age groups on myocarditis that:

Data are very limited on those 5 - 11 years of age, however based on preliminary data from US and Israel, the incidence of myocarditis in those aged 12 - 15 years may be less than in those 16 - 24 years. There were no cases of myocarditis or pericarditis observed in the clinical trial but the study size was too small to detect this rare event.

They don't even come close to saying "myocarditis is not an issue for under 12s", as you understand it.

They are saying they do not know re this age group. So an informed decision can only be based on what they do know.

TaurenDruid · 13-12-2021 11:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317408#Comment_118317408

And I quickly realised that if the chances of myocarditis from vaccination were likely to be higher than the chances of hospitalisation maybe the risk/benefit was not so favourable after all.

/facepalm

* Myocarditis risks from Covid-19 vaccines are still less than the risks from Covid-19 (Source: https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/comment/myocarditis-risks-covid-19-vaccines/ 1st December 2021)

* Myocarditis (or pericarditis or myopericarditis) from primary COVID19 infection occurred at a rate as high as 450 per million in young males. Young males infected with the virus are up 6 times more likely to develop myocarditis as those who have received the vaccine. (Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998v1 27 July 2021 - NB: paper not yet peer reviewed at time of publication)

* Covid-19: Study that claimed boys are at increased risk of myocarditis after vaccination is deeply flawed, say critics (Source: https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2251 14 September 2021)

hometruths · 13-12-2021 11:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317620#Comment_118317620

So your sources all report different incidences. Which is correct?

And none of them mention anything about 5-12 year olds.

/facepalm indeed.

astrofool · 13-12-2021 11:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317231#Comment_118317231

Did you actually read the article about why it's going to take so long, I'll let you explain why as you've got it completely ars*ways, as usual.

And there has been no indication the EMA will take that long (again, read the articles you're posting).

But lets go further.

Why do you think it will take the FDA 75 years? What does it mean? Elaborate on what you believe is happening there rather than trying to rely on innuendo with articles that you don't seem to have read fully yourself beyond a headline.

4 million kids and counting now vaccinated with at least one dose in the US.

I can see why you were deleted when talking about the FDA as you're just flinging muck everywhere hoping it will stick and getting more and more desperate.

astrofool · 13-12-2021 11:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317655#Comment_118317655

I think you're mixing up the virus risk with the vaccine risk, but I'm not quite sure of it.

CruelSummer · 14-12-2021 12:01am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317775#Comment_118317775

Do you honestly accept any reason why it would take an organisation 75 years to release data? The same data they used to grant authorisation in a matter of weeks. There is no excuse good enough like budgets, staffing, etc. These products are being mandated in Democratic run states in the US, including New York and Philadelphia which are excluding unvaccinated 5 year olds from indoor events. They’ve vaccine certs en masse & tried to implement no jab no job policies. They are implementing mandatory vaccine policies in Austria, Germany and vaccine certs in other states like Ireland.

The public should at the very least if they’re suffering these draconian policies -have this full information on a product that is quite frankly being shoved down people’s throats.

I’m not going to engage in insults and mud slinging as you state while doing it continuously as I’m not desperate like you appear to be becoming in this debate.

hometruths · 14-12-2021 12:04am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317788#Comment_118317788

Initially yes I did, but they do all report different incidences of vaccine risk. Two of them are just news reports criticizing another study. And none of them are relevant to 5-12 year olds.

hometruths · 14-12-2021 12:10am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317527#Comment_118317527

Just rereading this I wondered did you mean as you understand it, myocarditis is not an issue in under 12s full stop, irrespective of vaccine or infection risk?

astrofool · 14-12-2021 12:15am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317870#Comment_118317870

I don't believe there is any confirmed cases yet, they speculated it might be 1/50k for mild myocarditis during the trials/approval. The dose is also less for this age group which may be part of the reduced risk.

astrofool · 14-12-2021 12:24am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317835#Comment_118317835

It is ridiculous but it was a simple maths equation, 330k documents at 500 a week to get prepared and ready. Do you propose giving the FDA more funding, or to prioritise this FOI request over other requests to do it faster?

But again, if it is the case, what is the issue? What are you proposing that they're hiding?

I'm sorry, but I do imagine a foot stomping happening at this bit:

There is no excuse good enough like budgets, staffing, etc.

How long would your company take to prepare 330k documents?

TaurenDruid · 14-12-2021 1:28am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317655#Comment_118317655

Seriously?

Yes, they're different studies and so have some variance in numbers. And they all agree that there is an increased risk of myocarditis from COVID compared to the risk from just the vaccine.

But you're insisting that no, you're right, all of those scientists are wrong, and there's more chance of myocarditis from the vaccine...

Absolutely, those studies were not carried out on 5-12 year-olds, but the obvious inference is that the fact of a higher chance of myocarditis from COVID compared to the risk from just the vaccine will also prove to be true for younger cohorts. Especially as they will be receiving a smaller dose of the vaccine, but those unlucky enough to be getting COVID will be getting the same dose of COVID as anyone else.

Lumen · 14-12-2021 7:20am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317870#Comment_118317870

Yes, that's my understanding (actually 5-11, as I haven't looked much at vaccine or COVID risks for under 5s).

Have I missed something?

hometruths · 14-12-2021 8:22am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118318271#Comment_118318271

I don't know, but it does sound plausible that it might only be a danger from any source once an individual reaches a certain age. But I would think if it was true NIAC would know and would say so - i.e "5-12 year olds are not at risk from vaccine induced myocarditis, because they are too young to be at risk of myocarditis full stop"

hometruths · 14-12-2021 8:33am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118318100#Comment_118318100

Yes, seriously. In this age group, as you say yourself it's merely an inference.

You're wittering on about me not trusting scientists, but the point is I am trusting NIAC. They say they do not know the risk of myocarditis in this age group and they do know the risk of severe disease.

So the question is can you accept the risk of severe disease or would you rather take the unknown risk?

Given the risk of severe disease is currently less than 0.05%, and my kids face a higher risk of dying in a car crash every time they leave the house, then it is not a difficult decision.

Lumen · 14-12-2021 8:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118318324#Comment_118318324

NIAC say w.r.t vaccination and myocarditis

Data are very limited on those 5 to 11 years of age. However based on preliminary data from US and Israel, the incidence of myocarditis in those aged 12 – 15 years may be less than in those 16 - 24 years. There were no cases of myocarditis or pericarditis observed in the clinical trial but the study size was too small to detect this rare event.

My understanding/speculation is that carditis is an inflammatory response that occurs roughly proportionately in any given age group with both vaccination and infection, with risk higher from infection, and so if we were going to see vaccination carditis in under 12s we would have already seen it with COVID in that age group, and we haven't.

If NIAC stated more strongly that carditis was a non issue in under 12s, would you find that persuasive?

edit: refreshing my memory, it looks like in younger kids carditis may be an aspect of MIS-C (hence the M, I guess), and MIS-C is a known (but rare) effect from infection but AFAIK not (yet) from vaccination. Not sure if that helps the conversation.

hometruths · 14-12-2021 9:28am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118318364#Comment_118318364

One of the links that TaurenDruid posted suggested it is not proportionate in all groups with both vaccination and infection. According to that, whilst the risk from infection is indeed higher, 16-29 year olds have a disproportionately higher risk from vaccination than other age groups.

If NiAC stated that in their opinion it was a non issue for 5-12 year olds, then yes it would obviously change the risk/benefit view in that it would remove one of the risk factors

But that's not the same as being a persuasive risk/benefit argument for the vaccine in this age group.

The risks still remain largely unknown, (and there may be zero risk, but we do not know), and the benefits still remain very limited.

seamus · 14-12-2021 9:34am

@Lumen wrote:

My understanding/speculation is that carditis is an inflammatory response that occurs roughly proportionately in any given age group with both vaccination and infection,

This is one part that seems to be overlooked when discussing side effects. Myocarditis comes about as a side effect of the body's immune response. It's not a unique feature of covid vaccines; virtually every vaccine has the potential to induce myocarditis. It also seems more than likely that individuals who experience myocarditis as a result of vaccination, would likely experience it if they were infected with covid.

IMHO one of the reasons why this is suddenly a "surprise" is because in general teenagers (boys in particular) don't receive many vaccinations. The childhood vaccination schedule is largely complete by 12/13 years of age, and as a result the majority don't receive any new vaccinations until their 20s or 30s when they may take a flu vaccine. Thus historically the incidence of myocarditis from vaccinations in teenagers is likely very low, and since it's usually very mild, typically goes unnoticed.

But now that we're vaccinating hundreds of millions of teenagers and forensically dissecting the slightest ill-effects, this one has popped up. Spoiler: It's still not a big deal.

hometruths · 14-12-2021 9:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118318364#Comment_118318364

edit: refreshing my memory, it looks like in younger kids carditis may be an aspect of MIS-C (hence the M, I guess), and MIS-C is a known (but rare) effect from infection but AFAIK not (yet) from vaccination. Not sure if that helps the conversation.

I think this is true, and as posted above, NIAC specifically address the MIS-C as one of the consequences of infection:

A large international cohort study on children with COVID-19 estimated MIS-C to affect between 0.5%-3.1% of all diagnosed paediatric COVID-19 patients and between 0.9%-7.6% of hospitalised paediatric COVID-19 patients

So the risk is very small indeed, but a risk nonetheless. But is a benefit of vaccination reducing this risk? Not according to NIAC:

Information is not yet available about potential long-term sequelae. It is not known if vaccination will have an impact on long COVID or prevent MIS-C

MilkyToast · 14-12-2021 10:01am

I read somewhere (can't find it now, it was a few weeks ago) that myocarditis is more severe and more common in boys and men (across the board - not just vaccine-induced) because testosterone directly exacerbates the sort of inflammation involved.

If true, that would explain why it's more common in the younger men and older teenage cohort... and it would also lead me to suspect that it will barely be an issue in under 12s.

Lumen · 14-12-2021 10:27am

@Thou wrote

Below is a statement from Dr. Robert Malone inventor of MRNA vaccines and RNA as a drug.

I don't know which antivax website you got that from, but he has admitted that he did not invent MRNA vaccines, and the rest of it is about as convincing as a phishing email.

Thou · 14-12-2021 11:01am

Believe whatever you want to believe, I don't place much faith in factcheckers that are used to discredit any alternative argument that doesn't fit the narrative. But still if it's "vaccine technology platform" he invented I would still be inclined to listen to what he is saying.

Antivax website? It's called Twitter, where people who are for the vaccination of children or against the vaccination of children can share opinions, information and debate, more of which is needed before parents make such big decisions for their children.

Lumen · 14-12-2021 11:14am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118318767#Comment_118318767

That text is too long for a Tweet. Care to post the source?

astrofool · 14-12-2021 11:17am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118318767#Comment_118318767

He's busy shilling Ivermectin and claiming he both had long COVID and cured it using Ivermectin (ignoring that Ivermectin didn't stop him getting the disease and that he developed long COVID and waited a while before taking the drug he's shilling and proclaiming it works). In other words, he's a charlatan.

Where did you find that analysis?

Thou · 14-12-2021 11:21am

https://twitter.com/victoryzmaga/status/1470690913768939520?s=20

That is his video statement, the text I posted is a transcript of same

astrofool · 14-12-2021 11:24am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118318868#Comment_118318868

He's really gone off the deep end and seems determined to ruin his legacy, factually, the entire statement is bunkum.

Lumen · 14-12-2021 11:24am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118318868#Comment_118318868

OK, so the answer is "I got it from a Slovenian antivaxxer".

Would you be happy for your children to receive covid-19 vaccine

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