FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo · 13-12-2021 12:10pm

This mornings ECM run isn't a whole lot different to yesterday evenings. This mornings run is a bit milder as it's pushed the cold back a bit and the heights don't look as good towards Greenland but at +240 hours they were never going to be identical. Plenty of time for upgrades over the next few days I hope.

ECM 12z Yesterday

This mornings ECM 00z

The GEM is on fine form this morning.

Gonzo · 13-12-2021 12:32pm

CFS 00z sticking with the bitterly cold Christmas and very similar to this mornings GEM run too. ECM isn't far behind. GFS is really the only model not really going for it and continues with high pressure.

GEM and CFS throwing out some wonderful eye candy this morning. ECM is almost there. GFS needs some fine tuning.

PokeHerKing · 13-12-2021 1:01pm

Gem looking more like last nights ECM alright. There's a big diff in temps between ECM 12z and 00z. Deep cold staying at +10 days is my main concern.

The high is guaranteed at this stage but its fairly useless if it doesn't push northwest as far as I'm concerned although I'll take that over south westerlies!

Kermit.de.frog · 13-12-2021 1:16pm

Can only repeat what others have said.

GEM shows the optimum scenario for a white Christmas though it would more than likely be somewhat drier by Christmas day as low pressure over the continent slips south and high pressure exerts more influence from the north again.

The other models have us in the no man's land of a ridge throughout. Not bad, some potential after Christmas if the high builds towards Scandinavia and low pressure undercuts eventually but not great either.

We need a continental trigger low to really help advect the cold air to us.

Still, there is obvious potential for things to evolve here.

Whether it does im our favour and whether it's in time for Christmas are the key questions...

I'm sure we'll all be watching closely!

Gonzo · 13-12-2021 5:26pm

I think we will have an answer for Christmas Day before the end of this week. The GEM and CFS have been looking rather good but to really get hyped up we need both the GFS and ECM on board for this and as of now they are not and have the cold more to our east and south-east.

The ECM longer range models have more support for cold outbreak after Christmas rather than leading up to Christmas so I'm not sure the ECM 12z will be all that wonderful this evening. GFS 12z is rolling out now and I think it will be more of the same, high pressure dominated. The GEM/ECM 12z later on this evening so I expect wetterzentale is going to see alot of traffic over the next few hours with anticipation building.

mcburns07 · 13-12-2021 5:52pm

Snow would be great but i'd be very happy also if the current charts verified. A dry settled Christmas period would be brilliant.

Gonzo · 13-12-2021 7:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118316064#Comment_118316064

A dry and cold possibly frosty Christmas is the most likely outcome and perhaps something more wintry towards New Year. Definitely a second best scenario for Christmas. Anything is better than a conveyer belt of Atlantic muck, even a cloudy mild dry high.

sicknotexi · 13-12-2021 7:57pm

ECM delivers a Xmas turkey. Bad run for coldies.

Gonzo · 13-12-2021 8:20pm

I had a feeling this evenings models would bring us back down to earth. All runs ECM, GFS and GEM are as bland as can be. Let's see what tomorrow brings, don't have alot of faith in the GFS pub run.

However the GFS and all it's members has trended more towards cold with more of the runs going cold or very cold, despite the GFS operational unleashing the Christmas Turkey.

It's still an open book for Christmas, expect more changes or surprises (for better or worse) before Friday.

Hopefully we lose more of those mild outcomes tomorrow.

esposito · 13-12-2021 9:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118316802#Comment_118316802

And there was me thinking it was the morning models that were always bad for coldies. As you say a lot of chopping and changing over the next few days. It’s never straightforward for Ireland and the UK due to being surrounded by sea. At this stage I’ll happily take a cold, dry frosty high for Christmas Day and the run up to the new year.

Little snowy old me · 13-12-2021 9:38pm

Saying nothing.....

Ilyushin76 · 13-12-2021 9:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317124#Comment_118317124

Thanks👍️

Billcarson · 13-12-2021 10:22pm

The latter stages of the ecm 12z weren't great but wasn't bad before then though. When are 9 and 10 day ecm charts correct anyway?

Still think a cold frosty Xmas is most likely and then maybe something better towards the new year.

mcburns07 · 13-12-2021 10:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317124#Comment_118317124

Makes a nice change :)

pauldry · 14-12-2021 1:18am

I just think it will be dry by day 6 to 10c over the Xmas and near 0c by night. Nothing too cold or too mild s the 10c will prob be by coast. It would likely be 6c or below on Xmas day looking at current set up. Still very little chance of snow Dec 25th. But very little is an improvement on zero last week.

BLIZZARD7 · 14-12-2021 6:19am

Morning runs looking pretty lovely so far, GEM is close to perfection, UKMO and GFS both solid although GFS is a slow burner.

We aren't far away from landing a very decent cold spell in the heart of winter, the beast is knocking on the door...

Hopefully ECM keeps the theme going - many changes will be seen over the coming days but so far so good.

Gonzo · 14-12-2021 11:59am

GFS 06z rolling out another turkey, but if you want sunshine and frost it's a good one. Greece could be in for alot of snow over the next 2 weeks.

edit: despite the GFS operational being rather bland, there has been a fairly large shift in members going colder than average and the mean has now also gone colder than average. Let's keep going with the upgrades!

Rebelbrowser · 14-12-2021 6:19pm

Unless the ECM comes good in a while, the less said about this afternoon's models the better...

BLIZZARD7 · 14-12-2021 6:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118321486#Comment_118321486

?

I disagree, all looks fine to me so far to be honest. Will post charts later.

Rebelbrowser · 14-12-2021 6:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118321536#Comment_118321536

Maybe I'm wrong - delighted to be so, if so. Need all the good news we can get.

Gonzo · 14-12-2021 7:58pm

Not too happy with any of the models tonight, left in no mans land with all of them while the continent gets a complete freeze up. The GFS and it's suite of members have also swung back ever so slightly towards mild. Blocking does not go north enough or west enough for either Ireland or the UK. I'll give this one or two more days to see what happens.

Gonzo · 15-12-2021 12:22am

GFS 18z is poor to say the least up to the 28th of December. High pressure and cool up to Christmas Day and then milder Atlantic air tries to get back in from Stephens day and then a ridge tries to move in from the west and head northwards. The run hasn't finished yet and maybe this second attempt at high pressure with warm air advection to our west, ridges across to Scandinavia and starts pushing colder easterly air towards us (but not proper cold at this stage). We're still within a shot of bringing some proper cold in but may have to wait till after Christmas, closer to the New Year or perhaps even beyond the first day of 2022. The models are still struggling with what to do with the high pressure between now and Christmas so fingers crossed we start getting more luck in the models tomorrow.

As for the CFS 12z there is plenty of northerlies, easterlies and cold zonality on offer between Christmas and March.

pad199207 · 15-12-2021 12:31am

The forever pushing it out further and further goes on this winter. Still some nice settled weather will be very welcome on the run up to Christmas.

highdef · 15-12-2021 12:55am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118323166#Comment_118323166

Sounds great to me. From what you say, it's going to be settled with light winds and little or no rain for the foreseeable future. Nothing poor sounding there. Latest GFS run look interesting towards the end if you fancy a requirement to use lots of energy to keep your house warm.

icesnowfrost · 15-12-2021 6:39am

Things are starting to look consistent but also pushed out further each run. Still looking like cold for Christmas but after that could be very interesting for cold and snow.