Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

I suspect they'll reintroduce a travel quarantine period at home.

we'll end up like the fraternities in the US, Phi-Kappa-Psi, Beta-Theta-Pi, Omicron-Delta...

It's great to see numbers like that. We are trending downwards all the time and only 10 days left to Xmas.

Good to see the decline in hospital numbers continue. Hammers home the worthlessness of Nolan's models even more.

What previous sources? RTÉ news? independent.ie, Irish times? I know they’re not independent at all now & blatantly pushing propaganda but they’re the sources you’d look to.

I just asked a question, you didn’t know the answer.

I know there are certain posters on this thread doing their best to keep the labels flying out to anyone they don’t agree with, or to anyone who questions the logic for the current policies. Off with you.

Much as I've had my own feelings about the modelling they do serve a purpose as a possible indicator of the spread of disease. As has been stated more than once at NPHET briefings it is not an exact science. The real trouble though is governments are used to models and predictions that can inform and direct policies in the real world. Epidemiological models just don't do this, yet they are taken as gospel and are used to make wide ranging decisions that can look quite ludicrous and excessive.  

I'm not sure if there is an answer to this. The modellers, in good faith, are doing all their scenario analysis but while they only look at disease spread and not things that mitigate it they just can't tie it to any reality.

Sure except that the government doesn't only use one single model. It has access to a wide variety of data and sources.

The point is they can have any number of competing opinions to evaluate and consider. Here there is only one. The measures recommended out of this advice are an entirely different conversation but the models are used to justify them.

Bloody scientists with their maths and graphs. Back in my day a stick and a good patch of sand was all we needed to figure stuff out.

The UK has left recovery out of the new Covid pass rules so if Ireland may follow suit -

But the big difference is that in the UK a negative antigen is acceptable anywhere you need a Covid pass, so in reality it doesn't stop anyone doing anything (self tested antigen)

You'd probably get as close to reality as their models have.

The science and the theory behind the modelling is perfectly sound. In fact the modelling systems are completely open-source and available for anyone to look at and find fault with.

They are supported as being solid by practically every expert in the field. And when the last models were roundly mocked, many of the experts took a bit of offence and asked that people examine it for themselves.

The problem is not the modelling itself; the maths and the systems are fine.

The problem is a very basic premise in data science and analytics - when you put bullshit into your models, you get bullsh1t back out. The model itself is fine, it does exactly what it's supposed to. But models are only ever as good as the data you start with. Models can't fix bad input.

So when the model doesn't match the reality, you usually go, "OK, we made some mistakes about our input, some assumptions were wrong" and you learn.

Except in this case, it's been plainly obvious a number of times that the input into these models was wrong. We didn't even have to wait to see if the models were accurate, it was clear that the input was wrong, so therefore models were too.

As Lumen says, when you're using these models for economic forecasting, or some architectural woo, then it's OK to have made these mistakes and then come back and "learn". When the models are being used to apply restrictions and to try and get a grip on a live pandemic, then it's not good enough. Every input into the model needs to be validated, every assumption justified and peer-reviewed. If you pluck numbers out of the air or use data that you know to be out of date, then the models are just fancy lines on a screen and nothing more.

Thanks for the information. Why is recovery left off the Cert in the U.K. I wonder? At least they have antigen for now. If Ireland take away recovery as an option and don’t even allow for testing, we’re lost as a country.

If all of this is in the name of health, why would you need a vaccine shortly after your immune system has successfully fought off Covid and would now have antibodies and T cell immunity for at least 6-9 months. And possibly much better immunity and antibodies to the Omicron variant which the vaccines can only offer limited protection against.

With hospital numbers dropping, a push for the reopening of night clubs must be on the agenda.

Well considering you can't get a vaccine/booster within 6 months of having Covid I would imagine the recovery cert will be time sensitive to allow for that going forward