Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

You're saying more restrictions could lead to a SF led government in a few years time? I'm beginning to want restrictions at that thought

So for ICU, 8% of the population take up 46% of the COVID beds, 92% take up 54% of the beds (a few weeks ago unvaccinated were 66% so it does change), which is about 10x more likely (more than the 4x from the journal).

It also doesn't give the hospitalisation figures, but at best you're saying the unvaccinated are 50% more likely to be hospitalised (despite skewing younger and less having conditions as the vaccination rate in those groups is 99%+), at worst it sounds like of those hospitalised, the unvaccinated are representing 1.5 of the cases to every 1 vaccinated (which is way more than 12x but as they've worded it badly and not given figures it's impossible to calculate accurately).

But even with 1.5 and 3x (it's not that, but let's pretend), that is still a significant difference for groups overwhelmingly represented by being younger on average and much less likely to have an underlying condition.

The numbers of unvaccinated should drop % wise as they all get infected anyway (albeit more slowly due to keeping them away from riskier locations), but Omicron reinfection may increase their number while the vaccinated drop due to booster rollout.

When the number is 1:1 then COVID passes are useless and should definitely be dropped (we'll likely drop all restrictions way before that happens, but that might be optimism).

On the Covid thread, your words;

“We can have 12 vaccinated infected to every 1 unvaccinated and they would have the same impact on hospitals, reducing the chances of the unvaccinated getting sick keeps more hospital beds available. It's simple maths and undeniable (except on boards I guess).”

And here you say

“at worst it sounds like of those hospitalised, the unvaccinated are representing 1.5 of the cases to every 1 vaccinated (which is way more than 12x but as they've worded it badly and not given figures it's impossible to calculate accurately).”

The figures are in the HSPC data and are not impossible to calculate.

It would indicate that most of the unvaccinated have been infected by COVID (the UK ratio is lower than ours and they have 98% of the adult population with antibodies either by infection or vaccination, but Omicron looks like changing that).

I'm going off your figures from an article today (and you quoted the paragraph where it could be more than 12, so not sure you know what you're reading, but alas), a couple of weeks ago when there was 66% unvaccinated in ICU the ratio was much higher, it's going to change over time but ultimately in all cases there is a hugely disproportionate amount of unvaccinated both in hospital and then in ICU, that is why the COVID cert exists within the country for accessing locations with a relatively high chance of passing on infection (and not all locations, as public transport is excluded and it's probably the most risky but would also impact the unvaccinated the most if they couldn't use it).

I think you completely misunderstood.

We can have X number of infections of the vaccinated for every 1 infection of the unvaccinated to maintain the existing hospitalisation ratio, if more unvaccinated get infected (i.e. are in more locations where chances of transmission are high) than the number of unvaccinated in hospital goes up relative to the vaccinated.

Where X is that ratio, whether it's 3, 10, 12, 16 or whatever.

In the first thread, it was simplified as much as it could be to try and prevent confusion and using the average hospitalisation ratio for the last few months (50/50) and vaccination ratio (92/8 which is actually 11.5, but it's actually closer to 94/6 now, so 15.6).

There better be leaks tomorrow.

I don't want to have to wit until Friday for the updated restrictions.

That's one thing I need never understood , one of the most transmissible virus' yet they have to swap your brain to detect it. Could you not just use saliva or cough on to something

So now infections of the unvaccinated (13%) with hospitalisations of the unvaccinated (20%) lead you to conclude someone unvaccinated is 12 times more likely to be hospitalised?

Confused by your reference to the first thread that was established long before vaccines were conceived.

You're still making no sense, the journal article doesn't properly give the figures to draw any conclusions, if you have the actual figures, do post them. From the HSE reports, the numbers hospitalised and in ICU was about 50/50, this will no doubt change over time for a variety of reasons, and that 12x will change accordingly. (seems to be higher than 12x for ICU and lower for hospitalisation, but better numbers would help here). 12x is not set in stone but matches the last verified numbers from the reports.

Other less vaccinated countries are seeing a higher ratio than Ireland does.