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General British politics discussion thread

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  • Registered Users Posts: 677 ✭✭✭farmerval


    I am pretty sure they don't either. It has turned quite like the Republicans in the US. There's more to be gained from opposing everything than getting anything done, even when you're in power. When Donald trump controlled all three parts of the legislature in the US all he could talk about was what Barrack Obama did wrong. After Labour getting his bill through on Tuesday night, all Boris had at PM's questions on Wednesday was "labour were playing politics with the nations health"

    Boris' cabinet of total incompetence means that there's no real benefit to MP's behaving, working positively to get things done for their constituencies. When ministers are only there to defend the indefensible on TV and Radio, when the distribution of funding is only done at the whim of Boris, why would MP's behave. What is there to gain? There is no reason to behave when under the Tories, and accelerated under Boris there has been a kind of a free for all, nearly a breakdown in Civil governance. A PM that lied to the Queen with no consequences? A PM that lies to everyone with seemingly no consequences, why would MP's behave. As foreign secretary Boris spent all his time trying to undermine Theresa May.

    The very fabric of conventions that held parliament together have been ripped apart and we wonder why MP's rebel. They didn't do Brexit because of any real zeal or deeply held beliefs, they did it because they could. It was the huge thing that nobody believed they could do, or would do. Brexit has been the culmination of a generation of anti establishment momentum. Much like Donald Trump has abused the legal system in the US for decades and somehow was admired for it, the cult of Homer Simpson has come to pass. Don't like it don't do it, find some lazy or smartass way of getting around it.

    Britian is definitely following the US on a self destruct path. UKIP having a friendly take over of the Tories will have devastating consequences in years to come. The complete lack of consequences for actions that wee wrong or fell well below what was expected is eroding many aspects of the Tory party. The current government are the standard bearers for Britian right now. What does that say about the country.

    The police who presumably had officers stationed at all the entrances in Downing street when lockdown breaking parties were being held, declined to investigate, Cressida Dick, has had to apologise so many times for the incompetence and many other failings of those who serve below her, yet she is still in her position, how can that be?



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,729 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985




  • Registered Users Posts: 23,993 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Lid Dems have, by all accounts, trounced the Tories in what was a 23,000 majority seat for Paterson in 2019.

    Boris is toast.

    I'm pleased for ordinary Brit taxpayers really.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Not a shock as it was well signposted in advance, but still seismic for Johnson and his government. If it's a 26+ swing then that's even greater than the Chesham and Amersham swing in the summer which shows the scale of it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    I say not a shock, but i don't think anyone was predicting a near 6,000 majority. That's an absolute crushing defeat for Johnson, maybe a few more letters winging their way to Graham Brady over the weekend?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,074 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    It's not going to be the final straw as ultimately its Xmas and Boris gave them a huge majority to fall back on, but the polls have begun to slip and their has been some poor by election performances most notably this.

    I think looking at Tory twitter etc, he may have lost some of the base, whether its those who think he has been wishy washy on brexit, his latest changes went down terribly and I actually think the party stories have for once trickled down to Joe Bloggs.

    He won't go before xmas, but brave man to put money on him been their in April, the knives are out, people like Sunak. Gove, Truss etc will be on manoeuvres, another few scandals and oh boy!



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    He's odds on now to be gone before conference season next year and i think that's about right. The flat redecoration issue will be resurfacing in the new year so that will keep the pressure heaped on him and don't think he can survive too many more, as teflon coated as he is. This is just one election and governments generally get a bloody nose at by elections, but a 35% swing in a brexit safe seat constituency will send shock waves through the party and shred Johnson's much vaunted veneer as a vote winner. Dead man walking pretty much I think.



  • Registered Users Posts: 345 ✭✭orecir


    Disaster for Boris. He's goosed.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,654 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    With the pre election commentary was about a narrow Tory win being resignation worthy, this type of spanking is going to be lead to some very interesting attempts to justify his existence



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,729 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    The loss wasn't well signposted really. They expected to lose most of the majority but not the seat



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,514 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I disagree. I think it's another straw on the camel's back but not enough to get rid of him.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,096 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I read on the BBC site that the swing against the Tories was so severe that if it were replicated at a General Election, in all of the constituencies, they would be left with just 3 seats.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,600 ✭✭✭quokula


    I haven't followed too closely and can't seem to find an answer to the question - what happened to Labour in North Shropshire? They were second in 2019 and the Lib Dems were a distant third, but they lost about three quarters of their votes this time out while the Lib Dems surged. I understand there was tactical voting but normally that would go to the party who was second last time out, not the party who was third. Is it just that Starmer is as unpopular as Johnson or were there issues with the local candidate?



  • Registered Users Posts: 54,182 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    What a great day.

    What a lovely way to wake up and see the Tories being crushed and BJ deserves every bit of it



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,729 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Because the Labour voters in the area would normally vote for their preference knowing it was all pointless anyway.

    They made the calculation that rural Tories would never ever switch to Labour and also that rural LD voters would never switch to Labour either so they had already hit the ceiling. But it was obvious on the ground that Tories would go LD so that's why the tactical voting went LD not Labour



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,393 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    The 2019 candidate is a Corbynite, and was somewhat controversially excluded from the short-list for party selection this time. So they were off to a bit of a bad start as they were down whatever previous personal vote that previous candidate had built (it was his third time to stand).

    But the big thing was they seemed to decide a few weeks ago that these sort of semi-rural constituencies are best left to the Lib Dems, and they effectively if unofficially stood aside. Presumably in the 2019 GE the Lib Dems didn't even try in this constituency as it was unwinnable and they had more feasible targets & also had key seats to defend, hence their poor vote then.



  • Administrators Posts: 53,750 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    The Lib Dems are the protest vote party for anyone who floats between the right and the middle.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,471 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    Lib Dems should be doing much better from any Tory meltdown at the polls than Labour



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,729 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    I think people's view of the party got a little skewed during Cleggs time but the true Lib Dems are a centre right party and much closer to Farron and Cable than Clegg.

    Personally I know a fair few socially conservative middle England type people who only vote for them because they are a bit too ashamed of the more hardcore sections of the Tories



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    This is correct. It suits labour to have the view out that they weren't putting much effort in, that they were happy to leave it to the lib dems, but that doesn't explain why they weren't at the races to begin with, given they'd been clear second best the previous 3 elections. There might be some pressure now to look tactical voting going forward on a wider scale but that's much easier in theory rather than practice and the question of how they fare while continuing to isolate the left of the party remains very pertinent.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 25,729 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Well of course they were way down on last time if most of their voters correctly read the stats and voted Lib Dems. The demographics of the area explain why they were never at the races. Their previous numbers are the absolute ceiling for Labour in that area and no amount of canvassing would change that



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,512 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Whatever about the Lib Dems and Labour, the Tories as a party are clearly in huge trouble. Hard to see how they can arrest this slide in support, not unless they were to ditch Johnson and radically change direction. Simply replacing him with another Brexiteer nut / ideologue will do nothing to boost their popularity.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,322 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    I think I know the answer to this extreme form of speculation, but I have wondered lately if the Tories are at risk of a genuine split? Obviously, pragmatism informs that hardliners and centrists both like power & wouldn't want to cede it to Labour for pure ideology's sake ... but how long can that reasonably continue? 4 small-to-medium sized parties might at least reduce the problematic parts of FPTP, while there's no great sense of a softening towards Brexit from certain members of the party. When does the centre no longer hold?



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    You're misreading, again, I wasn't talking about why the labour vote was down, thats pretty obvious at this stage. I was referring to why they weren't considered the main challengers from the outset and what Armanijeans was correctly alluding to above. People can choose to ignore it if they like but it is a factor. Nobody within the labour party set out several weeks back, whenever this election was called, intending to play second fiddle to the lib dems, however people want to spin it otherwise.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,729 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Change UK will scare them off a split. Add to that any Tory that went UKIP lost his seat



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,729 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    I answered why they were not considered. There are large sections of rural British society that will never ever vote Labour. These people will vote LD if the Tories mess up but Labour had already hit their ceiling in the constituency.

    Thinking Labour could ever win here is like thinking that because the Tories polled 2nd in Camberwell & Peckham that they are best placed to steal which they are not



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,096 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    According to Kevin Cunningham both the Lib Dems and Labour released their own internal polling that showed that it was a marginal between the Tories and them. The Lib Dems got their one out first though and The Guardian picked it up. It became the established narrative then that it was a Tory/Lib Dem marginal. That meant that all of the tactical anti-Tory voters went toward the Lib Dems. The interesting thing is that Cunningham, who is a polling expert, said that the Lib Dem poll was based on an online survey with very shaky fundamentals so in essence they pulled a fast one and it paid off (although he used work for Labour so make of that what you will).



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,249 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    I'm not sure you understand how FPTP exponentially increases the number of MPs you get with small increases in the popular vote. This is why right wing protest parties like UKIP get the Tories worried. Not because they win seats, but because they will dilute the vote in marginals.

    Excluding Scotland and Northern Ireland as the main English parties get very little support there and plot logarithmic of number of MP's vs % vote. It's a reasonably straight line.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,514 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Not a chance. They've endured bigger ideological rivalries than this. If anyone is splitting, it's Labour and that's not going to happen either.

    When the centre doesn't hold, each party caves to its extremes and we get Corbyn and Johnson. The centre collapsed some time ago. The problem is that both parties have a strong interest in keeping the game rigged so ultimately we're stuck with FPTP here.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,074 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Think most believe he will limp on until the local elections in May and a probable bloodbath their will be final straw.

    Their is obviously scheming going on with the likes of Sunak, Truss Gove etc, but they won't make a move as it would look incredibly poor to have a leadership contest when is serious concern regarding this new variant and any new leader would have to deal with the fallout regarding this.



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