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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    HAP is too lucrative to give up for all those benefitting. For Dublin it can amount to 1250 if you have one child. The fact that 1250 is only an assistance payment and contributes to the overall rent shows just how a total crash (correction really) in the rental market isn't just a possibility (given the dislocation between 1250 pm in rent support and what average salaries are) but is a necessity.

    Poolbeg now being offered back to the council on long term leases instead of offering them for sale. Investors are fleecing the tax payer with their resources to overpower the councils and the government from so many different angles from lobbying, hiring from the public sector those with connections to decision makers, threatening to starve supply etc. It's farcical.

    The government have propped up the rental market making it a bubble and a bubble so large it has lifted all boats in our housing market. There is no metric where the current situation is sustainable. The question is where the chips fall when the whole thing collapses.

    For example, companies creating more jobs in Ireland won't happen in the short to medium term with no where for employees to go and live. Less than 1000 rentals on Daft for the whole of Dublin for the last 5 months and people think jobs can still be created? eg tik tok claiming they can hire a couple thousand for Dublin over the next few years? Won't happen and this further growth of big comps ies is the sword on which our post-08 growth and recovery will fall.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05


    I am one of those people and at time of purchase, our income would have allowed us to go on a housing list.

    Many experts have highlighted that the cost of building an a rated passive house is no different to building a typical similar sized pre crash home

    Do it right first time as the cost of correcting is much greater.

    I suggested a property tax linked to the benefits of upgrading the home would be the best option to fund the retrofiting of our stock.

    If it saves a 1k a year bring in a tax of 1 k a year to fund it until its paid off.

    Every body pays be it cash or a reduction/elimination of fuel allowance

    The existing plan is to upgrade the states own stock. This will be costly and will drive up the price for people who wish to do it themselves

    A national scheme would be able to benefit from economies of scale, bulk purchasing, doing a whole terrace as opposed to 1 House in a terrace



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,501 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    How will the rental market crash happened with such a shortage of supply? And when will it happen?



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,857 ✭✭✭growleaves


    Yes and say goodbye to many Central and Eastern European labourers if/when mandatory vaccination becomes either a condition of employment or a general requirement of permanent residence in Ireland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,262 ✭✭✭The Student


    Yeah but here we go again with a property tax. Any council owned property is exempt from property tax. Quoting the above "If it saves €1k then bring in a €1k tax to fund it" and guess who pays for it, the squeezed middle so how exactly is that fair.

    All I am looking for is some form of fairness, everybody thinks retrofitting, building energy efficient state owned properties but its the squeezed middle who end up paying for the bulk of everything.

    How exactly is that fair. I will ask the question again how is it fair that council housing stock is brought to a higher standard than owner occupied housing who can't afford to do our own properties but the state has no problem taxing us to pay for retrofitting council owned property.



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  • Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    property tax is a tax on the owner of the property. What would be the point in facing councils to give the money.back to them?

    My mother owns her own home, it is.being retrofitted by seai. They have already been out to assess it, they will then come back and do it all, not a penny will she pay.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,262 ✭✭✭The Student


    You are missing the point. Tenants of social housing should pay something.

    Great that your mother's house will be retrofitted free of charge but what about us in the middle.



  • Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You're complaining about people who own their own houses having to pay to retrofit, I showed you not everyone does.

    Then you complain about property tax, which is for home owners, how can social housing tenants be liable, when they cannot afford to own a house, hence they are in social housing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05


    If the work delivers 1k per year in savings to the owner/inhabitant in the form of reduced energy bills, then a tax of 1k constitutes 0 cost to the government and the owner/inhabitant

    The current property tax is exempt on council houses, bring it in as universal environment tax. We don't have to continously repeat mistakes of the past

    Throw all the carbon tax at the project also to speed it up



  • Registered Users Posts: 576 ✭✭✭bakerbhoy


    Having built my own home during the crash period to a higher standard , you are misinformed.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,205 ✭✭✭cruizer101


    Any grants that are fully funded appear to only be available to those already receiving state assistance (JSA, Carers, etc.) the grants for others, i.e. the squeezed middle class, only cover about 1/3 of the costs.

    Property tax currently is for home owners however there is an argument that it should be whoever is residing in the property, be it owner or tenant, as they are the ones who are receiving the benefit of local services for which the tax is paying for.



  • Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    My mother is retired. That's a lot of money to be paid out if all pensioners are eligible



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,205 ✭✭✭cruizer101


    I'm pretty sure all pensioners aren't eligible, from the seai page https://www.seai.ie/grants/home-energy-grants/ the fully funded grants are available For qualifying homeowners in receipt of certain welfare benefits



  • Registered Users Posts: 311 ✭✭SmokyMo


    when you look on daft rental, for complexes under kennedy wilson and the likes you will only see 1 ad per apartmnt type... in reality they have a number of these apartments for lease. so the total number of lets you see available is not correct.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    How?

    Well, to put it another way, how is it sustainable for the State to support 1/3 of all leases, putting a floor of at least 1250 pm on rents in Dublin, but not expect salaries to continue to go up? Effectively, since 2015/2016, the average worker who is renting is worse off today than they were back then.

    And as I said watch the big companies pause further growth in the country and make announcements post-covid restrictions (whenever that time finally happens) that actually staff can relocate to other EU countries where they have an office.

    Populism is the last nail that will hammer the coffin shut.

    That's how it ends, slowly the momentum of economic growth ends and then suddenly its flat.



  • Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Well the only payment my mother gets is a pension, that she paid into for years. All her neighbours are also eligible

    Edit, she gets fuel allowance



  • Registered Users Posts: 311 ✭✭SmokyMo


    on tapering topic, FED said they are planning 3 hikes next year. In sept they were saying there wont be any till 2023. Clearly they are concerned. I remember there were a number of smooth brain operators arguing we will never see rates go up coz people are juiced up on leverage.. ask your parents what rates they were paying on their mortgage.

    Wallstreet saying they are banking on non aggressive hikes.. but the market have been sliding downhill for the past two months. Usually they are a good counter indicator.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Everywhere I look, experts, like architects, note there is a higher cost to building to passive standards and then justify it on the energy savings. Who are these experts claiming there is not additional cost?

    "The research project CEPHUS, in partnership with the European Commission, published a study and conducted a comparison on architecturally identical houses built to the lowest legal standards and the required material cost increase to facilitate the Passive House standard.

    ​The results ranged from a 2% to 17% increase with an average of an 8% increase in build costs." https://www.nparchitects.co.uk/uncategorised/much-passive-house-cost/

    Come get your free lunch here, no limit per customer...



  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Do you mean that Main Street banks will increase IR's on any new loans now? I have heard this said before I was just wondering how it manifested itself.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,501 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    3 rate hikes bringing the fed rate to 0.75-1.00% in 2022 with the long term rate post 2024 being 2% assuming economy remains strong. That is still a low rate environment and nothing like the rates of the 70/80’s



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,501 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    so you are saying supply will increase because of an increase in emigration once covid ends.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    1) you wasn't able to answer the question.

    2) you got it wrong on the salaries. Salaries/labor costs in fact it is going up.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,501 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    The fed is buying less government bonds and mortgage backed securities. This means the supply available increases. If you Assume demand stays the same then the price will fall.

    As yields (rates) move inversely to price the yield (interest rate) on risk free bonds increases and results in all other rates repricing according. (including retail bank rates)



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05


    A development in Dublin. Pricing is often dictated by the motive if the resarcher


    Taking up that challenge, Stuart sat down and designed a new detail that would overcome this weakness. He had it tested to ensure it delivered optimal performance, and then took it to Durkan to find out what kind of premium would be required to deliver that specification. The answer was zero. "A little bit of thinking costs nothing," says Stuart, "Good detailing is not expensive."



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,501 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    It has always been like that and still the number of rentals available is at an all time low compared to prior periods.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,262 ✭✭✭The Student


    If you bothered to read my post you would have seen I asked about those in the middle. But sure interpret my post to suit your agenda.

    Property tax should be paid by the people living in the not the owners as its those who inhabit the property who are availing of the local services. Those in social housing are benefiting from the local services. But no lets go after those in the middle they are the easy targets, take the tax from their wages and they can't do anything about it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,262 ✭✭✭The Student


    But this is Ireland and it will never work like that. Any "savings" disappear into other charges. I would see "standing charges" increase or carbon tax increase etc. We don't do incentives good.

    Look at low carbon vehicles and reduced car tax. People bought into this and low and behold the "lower car tax" increased.

    We aren't fair, those who shout the loudest normally get better treatment than those who don't, and those who don't just don't have the time or energy to complain because we are busy working, commuting and everything else that goes with day to day working and personal life.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    'Good detailing is not expensive'

    Argon filled double glazing is 5% more expensive and is not a detail - same goes for large quantities of thick insulation and heat recovery ventilation systems.

    If you have a high airtightness, you absolutely need an HVAC system again, not cheap. That advertisment posing as an article implies their better sealed than passive - (bulldust) - units dont have a heat recovery ventilation system.

    "Passive House buildingsWith the Passive House concept the heat loss that typically takes place in buildings through the walls, roof and windows is drastically reduced. With the five basic principles –high-quality thermal insulation, windows with triple glazing, avoidance of thermal bridges, an airtight building envelope, and a ventilation system with heat recovery"

    And the Irish lads take on passive:

    "With great airtightness comes great ventilation - or at least it should. In phase two of Silken Park, the decision was taken to go with an Aereco demand controlled mechanical extract ventilation system. There are two major advantages to this system - it's maintenance free and has exceptionally low running costs. It does tend to be less efficient than heat recovery ventilation, says Jay Stuart, but tests have suggested that the shortfall is only in the order of 8 to 12 per cent."

    And 'And nor will you see the words 'green' or even 'passive' - I'm not surprised, as they might be held liable for false advertising.

    You might be happy with that as evidence of 'professional' opinion on passive not adding to build costs, but it doesn't pass my sniff test.

    Would you like to buy a large, slightly used bridge - one careful owner?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 311 ✭✭SmokyMo


    Do these large landlord publish their occupancy rate somewhere? I mean if it always been like then clearly the total is incorrect and we can not say that the number is at all time low ?



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