General British politics discussion thread

Backbenchers with no designs on the leadership might force someones hand though

If he is around for any local elections or by-elections Ide say he will be buried in a bunker till they are over.

His endorsement is a kiss of death now

Amazing. The tidal wave of sleaze now has washed over a guy they appointed to investigate some of it. Tories can't get out their own way, hard to do when you're hip deep.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/simon-case-covid-lockdown-party-inquiry-b1978409.html

Well I have to say, I'm quite enjoying the mess with the Tories. Long may it continue

Sorry for the ordinary voters over there, but i suppose they voted for them...

Another headache for Johnson

And before anyone thinks that this a dignified move so as to not be associated with the shenanigans that went on around the second jobs story, or the Christmas party, Frost is leaving for a number of different reasons accoring to Sky.

Trying to appease someone who is unhappy with Covid restrictions (in a country with very few meaningful restrictions) and who is unhappy with steps to deal with the pending climate issues doesn't really bode well for the direction the Conservative party is possibly going to move in once Johnson has enough time to draw breath or is replaced with a new PM.

(Not to mention the most definitely not insignificant story as to what this means for Brexit both in how it is going, and will continue to go.

I'd be shocked if some key press people weren't at some of these parties.

Aside from the press reaction, a guy being appointed to investigate the parties who was at a party himself would make you shake your head at how how they're just trying to do the minimum to try to stop people asking about this.

Think this shows just how many fronts Johnson is fighting on at the moment. Somehow he has to appease these small state, low tax fiscal fundamentalists while convincing all those red wall constituency mps that the taps will stay open for much needed investment and to show levelling up isn't yet another empty slogan. I suspect he'll end up bowing to the old guard small staters while trying to fob the rest off with obfuscation and spin. I doubt even a master politician could pull that off and this is Boris johnson we're talking about.

I know it's no scientific barometer but the level of vitriol being delivered against Johnson by Mail readers is off the scale. It seems the penny has finally dropped, even among Tory voters, as to just how useless and inept a leader he is.

Once they've been able to overcome inertia, realised they'd been fooled and admitted Boris isn't the loveable buffoon who would get Brexit done and "level them all up" opinion seems to have really swung. Is there any dead cat that'll do anything for him at this stage?

Well, they seemed quite happy to elect a remainer mp in a brexit constituency just last week so that would suggest it's losing its lustre as a voting issue. I wouldn't say it's all played out completely, but I think most uk voters have moved on, the nuts and bolts of trade deals and protocols don't particularly interest them too much.

There may well be some truth in this. Look at how he lost North Shropshire.....a hardcore Leave and Tory constituency. Seems like 'Brexit' has become useless to him and is doing nothing for his popularity.

This. I think Brexit as an electoral issue in the UK is well and truly finished. Everyone is bored with Brexit. Brexit supporters want to believe that Brexit is done, and they don't want it dragged out. Even gratitude to Johnson for having got Brexit done is now exhausted. Losing North Shropshire, a strongly Leave constituency, to a remainer Lib Dem candidate tells you that Brexit-related issues are not going to affect the voting behaviour of Brexit supporters. There are other issues that have more traction with them.

Which means that Truss now faces a dilemma. Brexit still has traction within the Tory parliamentary party; the ERG is still surprisingly influential. If you want to replace Johnson as party leader, and therefore as PM, the obvious course is to get the ERG to withdraw their support from Johnson and throw it behind you. You do that by being all butch on hard Brexit.

But, without exception, once in office the butch Brexiteers have all run up against reality, and reality wins ever time. Nobody who has taken on any Brexit-related role in the UK government has left it with their reputation enhanced, and mostly their careers are now dead in the water. Truss has the opportunity to shaft Johnson by doing to Johnson what Johnson did to May; after a few months in this role, resign because Johnson is not butch enough — will live with ECJ jurisdiction, won't trigger Art 16 and therefore launch a painful unwinnable trade war, etc. But if that strategy works, she comes into office as PM with ERG backing and an ERG expectation that she will trigger Art 16 and therefore launch a painful unwinnable trade war, which pretty much guarantees humiliating defeat at the next election and rapid ejection from the party leadership.

The way to succeed in the Brexit role is to gracefully manage a UK climbdown which defuses the NIP bomb. It will piss off the ERG no end, and they won't back you to ditch Johnson. But it doesn't matter; he's toast anyway. You just wait for Johnson's own character flaws to play out to their inevitable conclusion, and then position yourself as the competent, moderate candidate to succeed him. The leader is chosen by the party membership, and I think the North Shropshire by-election result is a better pointer to the traction Brexit issues will have with the party membership than the bombast of the ERG is.

The latest photo actually could have the "just a bit of cheese and wine" excuse used on it I guess; if it hadn't been incinerated trying to cover for the Christmas parties

I actually thought - if this as incriminating as it gets......but then surely there has to be a lot more than this harmless crap