FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo · 19-12-2021 12:22am

yep the 18z is very cold. almost identical to the ECM. At the very end it's trying to go for a second reload. In terms of precipitation these chart are dissapointing however this is still a week away, so much can change between now and Christmas Day. Probably be Wednesday to Thursday before we know where we are with this.

The Christmas Eve/Christmas Day stuff should probably go into the up to 120 hour thread from Monday as it will be getting into the somewhat reliable timeframe.

bazlers · 19-12-2021 1:29am

This already looks pretty good for higher elevations in central England and all of the north, extending to parts of NI and Scotland. The model consensus at the moment looks like a sleety mix at lower elevations of central England and a cold rain in the south with snow on some higher hills. As the low moves away, a slightly colder flow follows and that would drop the freezing levels closer to sea level. It would only take one twist of the dial on this to render a wider wintry scenario but it would certainly do for winter enthusiasts in some areas already. GFS indicates 50-70 mm precip potential across parts of the Midlands on 24th-25th and on hilltops that could mean very deep snowfalls, would expect it to be measured lower down as mixtures like 50 mm rain and 20 cm partially melted snow (a sleety mix in other words). Ground truth after this event would be patchy wet snow cover lower down and heavy drifting snow on hills.

bazlers · 19-12-2021 1:31am

Above was from you know who? The one and ond only Roger J Smith on Netweather.

Gonzo · 19-12-2021 2:05am

Looking at all of tonights GFS 18z ensembles, it's very encouraging that many of the runs are getting colder and prolonging the cold spell past 1st of January. More often than not the coldest runs have an easterly or north-easterly compared to tonights operational and ECM from earlier which are mainly dry northerlies. Looking Forward to what tomorrow brings. Hopefully more upgrades.

sicknotexi · 19-12-2021 2:16am

All I want for Christmas is pert 28 from last nights 18z.

Kermit.de.frog · 19-12-2021 5:52am

GEM is a corker for Christmas day this morning. GFS delay events a little till St Stephen's Day really.

sicknotexi · 19-12-2021 8:54am

Pretty shaky ECM 0z it has to be said and no snow for xmas but we have this a few days later. Just for fun of course.

bazlers · 19-12-2021 9:11am

Yes its going from the the 24th/25th to later on now.

We most probably will carry this around like a stone in your shoe for for a few more days. Then we realise its too much pain to bear and throw it to one side.

I hope i am wrong.

Gonzo · 19-12-2021 1:29pm

Not liking either the GFS or ECM. Big shift towards mild from December 28th, only 2 to 3 days cold at most on these runs. GEM still looks very good and more prolonged. Yesterdays charts were going into a 4 to 5 days cold spell which was getting extended beyond New Years Day. The GFS and its ensembles have shortened this spell similar to the operational run. The ECM is poor too and looks flimsy at best with only a day of cold before mild takes over. Models definitely wobbling again this morning.

If the ECM gets watered down any further we have nothing left, similar with the GFS. The 12z models this evening are now critical to see where they go. There better be significant upgrades, at least get back to where we were yesterday evening.

Billcarson · 19-12-2021 1:56pm

The models today feels like a snatching defeat from the Jaws of victory vibe.

Anyway I'm sure what happens for the rest of the month is far from decided yet. If we do end up in a mild scenario I will be seriously pissed off . That would be so typical of our climate these days .........

pad199207 · 19-12-2021 2:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118346308#Comment_118346308

I wouldn’t be pissed off with the mild weather winning out it would be the models that would piss me off for making us believe in false hope!

Gonzo · 19-12-2021 2:11pm

We could have our answer by 7pm this evening. The 12z from GFS/ECM will either be a total bust or a step back in the right direction. If the GFS operational was a mild outlier I wouldn't be so concerned but seeing the majority of it's ensembles shift back to mild before New Years is worrying. The ECM is very poor and I've no idea what level of support that has from the ECM ensembles. The GEM still has decent support for a proper cold spell with it's ensembles and the GEM gives me some sort of hope that both the GFS and ECM have wobbled considerably and that there is a glimmer of hope that the 12z sets things right again.

Rebelbrowser · 19-12-2021 2:23pm

It's 2021 lads, what could go wrong?! It's a year that has delivered in spades so far.....

pauldry · 19-12-2021 2:27pm

New Restrictions Snow must be all gone from charts by 8pm

esposito · 19-12-2021 2:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118346324#Comment_118346324

Let’s be honest. The models are not good for our mental health. As many people have said before, it’s the hope that kills you.

I also wish the GFS only ran twice a day. Too much chopping and changing and people overreacting to each run good or bad.

Rebelbrowser · 19-12-2021 2:33pm

Does Philip Nolan have weather models? They'd show 9 metres of snow to fall in a week's time I've no doubt!

Gonzo · 19-12-2021 2:37pm

I think in a perfect world all models would run twice a day at 240 hours rather than 384. The UKMO is too short.

Back in the 1980s and 1990s we always lived in hope that cold and snow would come and indeed it would, because we never knew what was happening beyond 48 hours. We would only find out about the cold spells a day or two beforehand and once you saw Ian McCaskill plaster the charts with the double snow symbols and speak of the great white siberian army, you knew something very special was within reach . Today's model output which is very easy to access takes us up to 2 weeks and beyond and kills all the mystery and we're left hoping more than anything with so much teasing that regularly fail to deliver.

BLIZZARD7 · 19-12-2021 3:31pm

Models are a mess and will continue to be for the foreseeable, FI is +96hrs at the moment. Still all to play for.

👀

Tyrone212 · 19-12-2021 3:32pm

If you want to save time looking at the models and reading forums with posters local bias and contradictions the easiest way to see a snapshot for your own location is

Xcweather.co.uk enter your own location. Will be an automated forecast based on the latest GFS.

Yr.no enter your own location. Based on the latest ECM.

Snowbiee21 · 19-12-2021 3:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118346708#Comment_118346708

it's a glitch

something went wrong with the charts on that website

19-12-2021 5:44pm

Gfs 12z says a wet and mild Xmas day

Rebelbrowser · 19-12-2021 5:56pm

UKMO still has cold creeping southwards on Christmas day, it looks still on track for cold for all by Stephens day - so it's still up in the air....

Gonzo · 19-12-2021 6:06pm

GFS 12z is similar to this morning, about 36 to 48 hours of cold and then 10 to 13C for final days of December. Looks good for Scotland the cold is pushing northwards with each run.

GEM keeps it mild for Christmas now too with a hint of colder weather from the 27th.

Lets see what the ECM 12z brings but i'm expecting it to be another mild one.

nacho libre · 19-12-2021 6:10pm

In my experience once the ops start trending milder and the suites follow it's a very bad sign. Christmas day snow looks all but gone now. As for after that I think the UKMO will trend to the other big two. The latest GEM is not as good either. Once the models switch and suggest Atlantic involvement, it usually ends badly for us. It all looked so good a few days ago. I would love for the later runs from the GFS and ECM to pull this out of the fire, in terms of a lengthy cold spell, but I doubt they will. Maybe the recent uptick in Solar activity is to blame.

sicknotexi · 19-12-2021 6:12pm

All to play for, big ECM coming up that's for sure.

Gonzo · 19-12-2021 6:13pm

Yep this cold spell is on life support now. A large majority of the ensembles are now gunning for mild with only brief low level cold for 1 to 2 days. Not sure we can expect a sudden flip back to proper cold by tomorrow.

pad199207 · 19-12-2021 6:15pm

In a big danger zone now. I think tonight’s ECM will either make it or break it.

To be honest it will be a relief to kick this crap out of the way once and for all. Ready for the next heartbreak says all..

pauldry · 19-12-2021 6:19pm

Sligo temp for Xmas Day on Yr no 2c max -3c min. Would result in my botched car never working again. Google has 5c and 1c min. These will probably be revised up to 8c based on latest projections . At least the weather forecast was cold even if the weather is not going to be.

nacho libre · 19-12-2021 6:21pm

Yes, I think I will take a break from model watching till around the New Year if tonight's runs are crap . I had a feeling the recent snowy charts for Christmas night and St Stephens Day were too good to be true anyway, but it's the hope that kills you.

pad199207 · 19-12-2021 6:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118347571#Comment_118347571

Exactly it certainly does. Now I will say this I wasn’t really up the garden path this time around but I definitely was through the gate.

Sigh

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST