The Omicron variant

UK (2 days ago article) COVID-19: Doubling time of Omicron could make PCR testing 'meaningless' - is it time for a rethink?

The current speed of growth of the Omicron variant is leaving some public health experts saying it's time to re-think using PCR testing to keep track of the outbreak in the community.

^^^ *Charlotte Summers, an intensive care consultant and professor at the University of Cambridge.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) currently says it has the capacity for 815,000 tests a day.

Ireland: - Tánaiste says 30,000 daily PCR capacity highest of pandemic

Hard to see what they can do to stop it.

82k cases today with the SA authorities estimating to only be capturing 10% of cases means anything up to 820k people a day are infected.

Thats pretty unstoppable, and if you factor it the shortened length of time for it to double then you have to ask what can actually be done.

I'm not sure why they're still doing reported omicron cases when we can simply count the number of missing s-gene pcr tests. The number of actual cases is fairly irrelevant.

If everyone has antibodies then it means Covid is endemic rather than a pandemic.

For those of us with double jabs and booster,it will be another natural boost to immunity.

60% effective against means 60% effective against having symptoms, not death etc. Most of the 40% will have a sore throat, an off day or two but are in the 40% ineffective group because of that.

Still not bad.

Too many unknown variables here. What if it's 'not' mild? That would result in a calamitous few weeks, the worst of the pandemic.

I think it should be mitigated but that would mean spreading the peak an extra week or two.

Whether it is mild or not we will not be able to slow it down much.

Doubling under 2 days in London now. That's incredible, it will run out of new subjects in weeks.

If it was to be slowed it would take an immediate lockdown with strict enforcement, no travel beyond 5km, no Christmas day dinner etc etc. Even that might not be enough.

That's not going to happen though I'd say we'll likely have a lock down on the 29th for a week or two.

We will be in big numbers, even doubling every 3 dsys will see us hitting 6 figure cases by New year's Eve and PCR testing will not be of any use then.

Have stopped following the virus news a long while ago after being all about it in the first year but is there any data suggesting the new omicron variant is any more worse than having a bad cold? Are deaths rising? Hospitalisations rising because of it etc? Had covid a few weeks ago and luckily just like a crappy cold (with some shortness of breath with exertion) and tiredness after recovery - may well have been omicron

If not why are we shuttering the country again?

Did they not tell you what variant you had? Seems like it would be very pertinent information considering how much more transmissible omicron is likely to be. Country is being shuttered because hospital staff are burnt out, capacity in a hospital could likely see a big increase in a short timespan if the variant does turn out to be more transmissible; which is the equivalent of ordering a pint at a self serve bar tap and it being poured into a half pint glass, and they are also covering their arses because for 10+ years hospitals have been barely able to cope regardless of a pandemic.

with testing capacity here of only 30k per day we will see that capacity reached very early in the week.

With 4k positive cases a day over the last few days and close contacts of 2 per person thats 8k tests a day gone.

If that doubles by Tuesday ti 10k positive cases AND IF they were able to contact trace (and they wouldnt) it would take 20k tests in the following days.

Add into that people getting tested travelling for Christmas to and from the country.

Add into that people getting tested because they are meeting uncle joe at the weekend and joe is high risk and you wont get a test this week unless you have a red had, white beard, own a few reindeer and international travel is required by your work.

Things are useful when you put useful information into them and this level of inaccuracy would have had people fired in any other field. The key measure in this, their hospitalisation rate, has been way overstated since summer so they are always going to be wrong. Case numbers too have been off because of that guesswork on the level of undetected infections.

They are not real scenarios, not an opinion, now a demonstrable fact, so it is an utterly useless tool, yet they are the only ones the government listen to. I suppose one positive is that the pessimistic scenario is so risible nobody really takes that version seriously any more.

It think Its like a powder keg getting ready to light in Ireland.

We are in winter, with hospitals approaching capacity already, Christmas time and a population who think the omicron is just a mild cold so arent really bothered to stay out of the way of it.