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2020 officially saw a record number of $1 billion weather and climate disasters.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,709 ✭✭✭Birdnuts




  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    The major Northern hemisphere milestone of the December Solstice is close where the Northern polar latitude has turned far enough into the dark hemisphere of the Earth to create the largest circumference (Arctic circle) where the Sun remains out of view and therefore so is solar radiation. Not only Arctic sea ice tracks this expansion and contraction of the surface area with the North pole at its centre, but also the strength and weakness of  stratospheric polar vortex, and the tropospheric polar vortex across the planet's circuit of the Sun. 


    It is more productive to consider the relationship of the polar latitudes to the orbital plane as the closer to the orbital plane, the larger the circumference where the Sun remains in view or out of sight so that were the Earth to have the inclination of Uranus, that circumference (Arctic circle) would extend down close to the Earth's equator-



    All this is new enough to enjoy and anyone can work with the principles if they so choose without any restrictions whatsoever.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Yeah? But MT'S apocalypse Green prediction is completely fine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    Want to see what the apocalypse looks like? -

    It may that people are so damaged, not irreparably, that presently they feel nothing when encountering the monstrosity where the light and dark hemispheres pivot off the Earth's Equator on a planet with a zero degree inclination attached to bright and breezy 'explanations' like the one from NASA.


    Personally speaking, those who pursue the expanding and contracting circumferences where the Sun remains in view and out of sight with the North/South polar latitude at the centre will find genuine satisfaction in the explanation, maybe not this year but eventually.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Crop failure Isn’t an issue, the way we farm is not sustainable. The resources invested into cash crops and meat products is the issue.


    Arkasia is I mentioned before, we already have 100s of millions malnourished and millions die from starvation, of which none is related to climate change.

    As stated before, the alarmists don’t care about current suffering, but only future suffering, pure hypocrisy.

    Very hard to support alarmism when it ignores much more egregious suffering that happens today.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    “Dramatic condemnations of my opinions really have no "real world" impact at all”

    Shur your opinions are horseshit anyway so ya the above statement makes sense.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,462 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    One thing that remains constant is the poor manners of communists.

    The only difference between the climate change lobby and the political realm is that the politicians have to take their power-hungry agendas before the voters and seek ratification. There is no similar oversight of the climate change lobby, the only thing that could reduce its power would be if larger scientific bodies withdrew their support. There is no chance of that happening for two reasons, one, the more credible scientists like astronomers and physicists know very few details of climate and weather, and have been seduced into full acceptance by one or two basic principles that are not fully vetted, and secondly, most scientists are leftist in their own politics, and they sense that climate science accomplishes the goal of uniting causes of progressive politics and science. So they don't look very carefully, and the result is this self-defining "consensus of reputable climate scientists" which is just code for "we kicked out everybody who disagreed at an early stage and that intimidated the rest successfully."

    This is hardly some isolated personal opinion of mine, I think if you asked most long-time weather enthusiasts about this subject, they would basically agree that climate science has barged into what used to be a more balanced and less politicized area of interest, and forced out all the people who don't fully agree with the IPCC position. The process then turns into a classic case of dehumanizing the dissidents, in exactly the same way that communist (or fascist if you prefer to dislike that kind of totalitarian) regimes have done to their political opponents.

    You see examples of it right here. One side wants to have a reasoned discussion, the other side has come in (probably from outside Boards, I suspect) to deal out political punishments, and to insult all Boards weather forum members with ridiculous charges that sometimes appear. I read somewhere else on boards some tripe about the weather forum being moderated by climate change deniers. There are a number of weather forum moderators, only one of whom has expressed a position of any kind on the subject. These observations are confusing the tolerance for debate with taking a position. In any case moderating this forum is not primarily related to political views on climate change, and the moderators do an excellent job at the thankless tasks they have taken on.

    Anyway, I assume this discussion will soon disappear from the active list when somebody posts a similar report about 2021 being a new record for climate disasters. That certainly won't surprise anybody in this time zone. I am not convinced that the human race is primarily responsible for these events, however. They may very well have happened regardless, perhaps the real surprise is that they don't happen more often.

    In the interests of a tranquil holiday season, I shall wander off now and not return for some time, in fact a permanent absence (from this thread) would probably be as pleasing to me as it would to many of you.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭Tyrone212


    If someone disagrees with you are they automatically a communist? I've never called you anything but by your logic I'm a communist as well because I have a different opinion to yours. You're from N. America though, its very polarised and crazy there between the two sides. A lot of it is hyperbolic nonsense.

    Your post has a real strong sense of victimhood. I couldn't even finish reading it to be honest because your last couple of posts have been long rants whinging about leftists, communists, how you're victimised if someone thinks differently to you, conspiracies etc. Just too much North American whinging for liking.

    This thread has always been a s hit show so I don't know why you're surprised. At times neither side covered themselves in glory, not all one sided as you're trying to portray. And no just because people disagree with you on here doesn't mean they've come from a different website. I haven't come from another website. Not everyone will agree with you MT, its not that hard to accept or a conspiracy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭Tyrone212





  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    For anyone interested in planetary climate, it is first necessary to explain the seasons and presently that explanation is a train wreck despite many ways to approach the proper explanation.

    https://epic.gsfc.nasa.gov/

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Space_Climate_Observatory#/media/File:EpicEarth-Globespin-tilt-23.4.gif

    The awful RA/Dec perspective of the Equinox/Solstice points (seasons) is contrary to the imaging above-

    https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap210922.html

    They had to alter the imaging from the EPIC satellite to conform with the actual relationship between the North/South poles to the orbital plane and dark hemisphere of the Earth in the September time lapse otherwise they retain an Earth with a zero degree inclination.

    No point in cursing the darkness when it is easier to light a candle. Those who follow the expansion and contraction of the surface area where the Sun remains in view or out of sight will come to enjoy the power of the Earth's motions.

    https://www.usap.gov/videoclipsandmaps/spwebcam.cfm

    The Sun remains constantly in view at the South polar latitude presently and its observed motion described the smallest possible circle presently on the December Solstice.

    If there were two sides to the 'climate change modelling' debate, then it means the founding principles were bogus to begin with-

    ". . although they have extracted from them the apparent motions, with numerical agreement, nevertheless... They are just like someone including in a picture hands, feet, head, and other limbs from different places, well painted indeed, but not modelled from the same body, and not in the least matching each other, so that a monster would be produced from them rather than a man. Thus, in the process of their demonstrations, which they call their system, they are found either to have missed out something essential, or to have brought in something inappropriate and wholly irrelevant, which would not have happened to them if they had followed proper principles. For if the hypotheses which they assumed had not been fallacies, everything which follows from them could be independently verified. " De Revolutionibus, 1543 Copernicus



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,339 ✭✭✭The One Doctor


    Do you have someone who looks after you? Maybe a carer or something?



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,462 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    For clarity, I commented about rudeness without specifying individuals, and somebody (Tyrone __) who has not been rude or controversy-provoking then took issue with me over that. I can't recall any rude or boorish posts by that poster, and I wasn't thinking of his posts when I commented. He might have a good point about polarization of political opinion over here, I guess not everybody actually wants to live in a communist dictatorship. If that seems extreme or whinging, so be it. It is a bit more complex than that of course, globalism is not communism as we knew it before 1990, and it is not exactly the same as the sort of government and society they have in China either. However it does have similarities in terms of attempting to censor any thinking that is not fully aligned with the state. What makes it worse from the point of view of dissidents like myself is that our governments do not run on election platforms that always match their later actions and rhetoric, meaning that they have a weak mandate to do what they are doing. The COVID situation complicates matters further, and we are all generally living in a kind of fog of low value information that may or may not have any merit or truth attached to it. I don't find that my views are that unusual around this forum in general, not just in the weather forum but in other areas, although I don't think a majority would share my views.

    Perhaps there has been a somewhat more successful campaign to demonize anti-globalist sentiments in parts of Europe, it seems more advanced to me in the UK than in Ireland, but I am at a distance and my only way of judging this is by what I read on line, which I realize is a poor substitute for actual understanding. Also it should be emphasized that whatever the polarization of views evident in the USA, Canada tends to be a domain where people consciously avoid saying what they think and identifying what they see, so that we have a rather muted political discussion going on here, the opposition to more progressive politics tends to be rather subtle (which to my mind means people have been intimidated) I am very much out of step with most Canadians on a number of issues, and this was probably already known to some people here, not that it makes for very interesting reading but that is the truth of the matter, you would be further ahead to assume that Canadians are different from me rather than like me.

    One other perspective on all this, having read the Weather Forum charter, some people seem to be in continuous violation of that charter with every post they make. It might make sense to take all the climate change stuff over to an existing but underused climate change forum in the Science area, appoint moderators from among those who are interested, and have a sort of echo chamber of true believers that the rest of us will probably avoid like the plague. There is no real middle ground unfortunately, either you believe there's a climate emergency and we should disable the economy to deal with it, or you don't think that and find the economic suggestions somewhere between unwise and catastrophic. This is not something I invented. I don't feel like an isolated victim, if bad things are happening on a large scale in the world then a lot of people will notice and feel like they want something different to happen. That's more accurately how I feel. There are people far more directly impacted by the changes ongoing than myself, as a retired person none of the political changes affect my personal finances or job security, but I empathize with those who are finding the revolutionary political changes destructive on a personal level. Some are probably saying good, those people deserve their problems and others will be lifted up (the usual revolutionary call), and I happen to disagree. If that's not acceptable then I don't need a lot of further aggravation, nor can I really influence how this plays out anywhere but perhaps on a very local scale so having a lot of arguments with European globalists is sort of pointless for me, I suppose I step in when I don't see arguments being raised by others (very often anyway), and my guess is that a lot of people prefer the quiet life and want to avoid heated political arguments. This of course is what fanatics always count on to get ahead.



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    I still think your post indicating an attempt to fit 'climate change modelling' into a bigger can of worms with even more dire conclusions is remarkable by all accounts but then again, nothing surprises me any more in this forum.


    Right now, the North polar latitude is turning towards the light hemisphere of the Earth and with it the circumference where the Sun remains out of sight is slowly starting to shrink until it gathers pace before the March Equinox, At our latitude where daily rotational influences are more prevalent, we experience this as increasing daylight lengths-




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    In your recent flip flop you admitted that you do believe in climate change and even doubled down on the UNs predictions so does that mean you’ll exclude yourself. That J turn is also the reason the rest left, the king is dead, sinking ship and all that.

    Maybe if you just didn’t start these alternative fact threads you’d save yourself alot of hassle.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Hope you had a happy Chrismas MT.

    You're right it would definitely be a good idea to avoid ever talking about climate change again because on this topic you appear to have completely lost your mind

    Communist takeover....



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,462 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    You guys may or may not believe what you're saying, but either way, there was never any point in saying it. That would be my last contribution to this rather tedious thread. Please take these climate change lectures over to that climate change forum that sees no traffic, maybe you can get something going over there. My only real interest in all these topics is that we can somehow find ways of increasing the fresh water supply and avoiding all the problems that a lack of water will create especially on this continent. I guess Europeans have plenty of water, it's always falling from the skies.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,363 ✭✭✭dePeatrick


    So no one knows…



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    For someone who said that his predictions were even more dire than the climate change modellers who dump guilt at the feet of industrial humanity, to find it all very tedious a month later is quite a change in perspective.

    I have seen recently how far contributors will go to support junk notions and the icons who create them, but most certainly your solo run opened the eyes of those who made the effort to reduce the anxiety originating in the attempt to make a greenhouse look like the Earth's atmosphere with human control of weather/temperatures. To these people I would say, they are needed to recover the Earth science of climate to a working research topic with weather an integral part of that research rather than a dominant one currently misused by theorists.

    Plead victimhood, plead indifference, plead whatever you like, it only matters when you are among people of integrity and there are a few in this forum.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,462 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Well I made some dire predictions for sure and I see them as potentially valid although I wouldn't pretend to know for certain what will happen, it could be a lot less dire over the 20-30 year time scale but eventually we might see this happen and let's say it took 80-200 years, it would still be the same problem for people then, so it needs a solution available if it starts to come to pass. At least either a solution or a plan to get things out of harm's way in an orderly fashion. The longer it takes the slower it would rise.

    So I think it's a serious situation potentially but I don't have a lot of interest in this thread any more, this wasn't the thread where all that was being discussed anyway, this is a discussion of the severe weather impacts of 2020 and I continue to say those are fairly routine after inflation and target expansion are taken into account, but 2021 might be a different story, certainly is around my part of the world. However, we adapt, they rebuilt that heavily damaged highway in just four to five weeks and it is already handling limited truck traffic again.

    I wish we could tackle desalination with the same intensity of purpose. It seems like sheer madness to me to allow these desert areas to receive rapid inflows of new population and development and have no coherent plan for water availability. Lake Mead is dropping at an alarming rate, more due to overuse of its water for Las Vegas water supply than climate change. I have to laugh when some earnest media person comes on TV to tell me that the deserts are drying out. Places that used to have an average of 2 inches of rain a year now have 1.98" or words to that effect.

    IT'S THE SOCIAL CHANGES NOT CLIMATE CHANGE is what I yell back at the screen but you know how little good that does.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    “That would be my last contribution to this rather tedious thread”

    How many times are you going to cry wolf ?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    To a large extent, planetary climate is dependent on the degree of temperature fluctuations across latitudes and that is determined by the degree of inclination to the orbital plane-


    That indicates a largely equatorial climate with a sizable but minor polar input. Were the Earth to have a polar climate like Uranus due to its inclination, there would be huge swings in temperature fluctuations with reds replacing blues at a remarkable rate. Life on Earth would be impossible, so keep this in mind when looking for exoplanets in the childish 'goldilocks zone'.


    It takes such a lot to make life possible on this planet.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    In more 'routine weather news, it's new years eve and Colorado is experiencing a state of emergency as hurricane force winds drive massive wildfires, made possible due to extreme drought that of course is totally normal and nothing to do with climate change

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/colorado-boulder-fire-evacuations-latest-b1984741.html%3famp



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    Due to the presence of the virus, people have had their fill of anxiety that was actual rather than imagined. Covid is real and can be dealt with as best we can whereas climate is not a property of human control and especially weather/temperature.


    The Western USA is far more extreme than the Western coasts of Europe and Africa, where Los Angeles shares the same latitude as Casablanca, but experiences different weather conditions due to the planet's rotation and the zonal flows which influence drought and floods and why hurricanes generally originate in the East moving West. California is experiencing welcome storms at the moment, which help to fill up the reservoirs and I have an interest in this due to having family there-


    No attention is paid to atmospheric circulation based on the length of time that latitudes spend in solar radiation as the planet constantly changes orientation to the central Sun which supplies energy across the relatively small area of the Earth in comparison to the Sun. As we move away from the December Solstice and towards the March Equinox, the area North of the Equator experiences the shift towards longer times in daylight/solar radiation with greater swings towards the North pole. The area where the Sun remains out of view starts to shrink and like the lag in temperatures experienced between noon and afternoon, temperatures start to catch up and Arctic sea ice begins to melt.


    https://www-cdn.eumetsat.int/files/2020-10/img_il_20_09_25_a.png



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    A week of dry weather with know lying snow is enough to create conditions suitable for wildfires.

    fires in winter are not impossible. It’s unfortunate that the winds, which are the driving factor hear are present.

    The winds are also suspected of starting the blaze by blowing down power lines, thus igniting the blaze.


    It’s a perfect storm, where the holes in the cheese have lined up. Be nice if Arkasia if you nominated a % of the possibility of this happening without AGW, as all factors bar the ignition source are natural and possible without a warming climate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Just because something is possible without climate change doesn't mean climate change isnt causing them to occur more frequently and more intensely

    Climate change will cause multiple extreme events to coincide more frequently. It was in the AR6 report where they warned that climate change will cause more 'compound events'

    The exact 'holes lining up together' situation you described abovw



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    I'll accept this as a pure example of human induced weather event. If the humans hadn't put the power lines there - there probably wouldn't have been a fire.



  • Registered Users Posts: 408 ✭✭Orion402


    What do you think of this statement?-

    " Well I am stuck in 2021 for another 20 minutes then it's time to toast the new year which could be a slight improvement, we hope, or just a doorway to further troubles. I will stick to predicting the weather rather than the future of humanity, would be putting out a red alert if so."

    I would have thought it was April 1st instead of January 1st.

    Hilarious.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Is this where the climate change denial camp has set it's final stand?

    I can go outside right now and throw a bucket of petrol on the ground and throw a lit zippo onto the puddle

    The petrol will ignite, the fuel will burn, but I can stand a few feet away and not be at all worried that i'll catch fire

    Why? Because the ground is wet


    Wildfires require drought conditions to sustain them..

    Climate change deniers have always blamed arsonists, and now electricity poles, but the real culprit is the change in rainifall patterns.

    There will always be a spark eventually, whether it's lightning, or an arsehole with a box of matches. There are 8 million lightning strikes a day on this planet. The cause of the wildfire is no the spark, it's the drought that dried up the fuel and created the tinderbox waiting to be ignited.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    What happens when natural fires break out - yes, that's right, humans with C02 powered planes, helicopters, trucks and jeeps cart water and chemicals to the fires putting them out.

    The fuel that should have naturally burned, doesn't and builds up and builds up until one day there is so much fuel/tinderbox that there won't be enough planes, helicopters, trucks and jeeps carting water and chemicals to the fires to put them out.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    The Colorado fires from yesterday were in grasslands. They were caused by a combination of a spark, drought and a powerful windstorm



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