The Omicron variant

Correct. Around half of specimens in London dated 11-12 December had s-gene target failure associated with Omicron, and this was a few days ahead of the rest of England.

So we'd expect to see hospitalisations rising first in London, around now.

The latest data on hospitalisations on the dashboard is from 15 Dec. They've been climbing steadily since the last week of Nov but not alarmingly so.

Not sure whether there's a more recent source of London hospitalisation data.

The variant didn’t originate in the UK. It’s been in South Africa for longer and there is increasing evidence from there that it is milder. It will take time to know for certain of course, but the evidence is adding up. The obsession with waiting to see what comes out of the UK is a bit odd to me.

While I do think we need to protect the health service and that we should be making sure this new variant doesnt overwhelm us, I do think that the HSE and others have been, shall we say, picking the data they release for reasons of information control.

We do need people to follow basic rules, but most people are now seeing through this information control and will just not believe anything they are told to do from the HSE or NPHET in future.

They have been economical with the facts and are releasing for effect

Naw not really.

There are those at risk from this and those who arent, you can say that it effects those who arent at risk but thats tiny.

It's an interest in how it progresses there but more so Denmark so we'll have an idea what we might expect. That both do a lot of sequencing is useful too.

A virus never moves in a linear fashion. If we just concentrate on cases it isnt at all like the classic one grain doubling per section on a chessboard. And neither can we say that the peak is influenced by x amount due to restrictions. Mitigation, yes, percentage unknown. Even in unvaccinated unrestricted countries a virus will reach a peak. There might be a doubling in cases at some point but it does not continue.

All i am really saying is that any equation w multiple variables is dubious. It is true for the CO2 debate as well as for Covid. Thats why projections and models need to be adjusted constantly. I hope they will at some point.

I'd imagine its because like the UK, we are on average older, fatter and probably have lower vitamin D levels than the South Africans who are in mid summer now.

Exactly, when people say mild, I think they assume a runny nose for two days or something. I need to be in and out of Ireland in a seven day window and attend a bachelor party and not infect my parents in their seventies. Everyone is telling me "ah sure it'll be mild anyway". That could mean delayed flights and work, 2 weeks in bed and an entire extended family's plans messed up. Mild could be the sickest I've ever been in my life, I've never had a cold for longer than 3 days before.

Scientists were still speculating if Delta was more severe than Alpha 2 months after it was discovered, There was some early speculation that it could be milder. It took several studies and a collation of data before they could speak with a degree of certainty on its severity.

Science takes time. We are learning more everyday, but it might be as late as January before anything conclusive comes out.

Totally agree, if anything the data is hiding an even greater reduction in CFR at this stage. Seems to be heading a in a pretty predictable trajectory in comparison to other pandemics now.

Moreover, people seem to have forgotten that most deaths occured due to auto immune disease, ie the immune system releasing cytokine storm and inflammation to get rid of the virus causing massive tissue damage. Not the virus itself. This time that main factor does not seem to be happening.

If two thirds of nearly all the population become symptomatic over the next 2 months it would be absolute carnage and not just for the health service.

Hopefully that scenario doesn't happen.