FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Kermit.de.frog · 20-12-2021 12:03am

Come on guys, stick with the weather.

Gonzo · 20-12-2021 12:03am

If the 18z verifies we are in for a very mild final week of 2021 with temperatures possibly reaching 14 or 15C under the right conditions. Temperatures currently running close to a degree above average for the month and with a very mild week possible between Christmas and the 31st this could end up being a significantly warmer than average December with those long fetch south-westerlies.

mcburns07 · 20-12-2021 12:08am

Luckily those are just as likely to verify as the charts we were looking at in recent days!

nacho libre · 20-12-2021 12:11am

That GFS is Offensively mild for the time of year, but I would put up with it if it led to the high going North or North East thereafter to allow very cold Russian air to make it's way here eventually. I am seeing another garden path to walk up in the distance. Ha!

sicknotexi · 20-12-2021 12:16am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118349466#Comment_118349466

I reckon that is a big outsider.

Gonzo · 20-12-2021 12:17am

Final Frame of the 18z. That's some serious warm air advection going right up north of Greenland from the Canaries and that blob of cold over Scandinavia is pulling cold down towards us.

This 18z is very unlikely to verify as the mildness is bordering on extreme.

Kermit_de_frog · 20-12-2021 12:36am

Just for fun of course, member 22 brings us a nice snowstorm😏

pauldry · 20-12-2021 12:37am

The set up is quite complex and uncertain and could go right up to the last day. My Google forecast says 7c now for Xmas Day but I always find around this time of year charts are really difficult to verify as there's so much weather going on. In Summer it's easier as most lows head North. We could have any sort of weather yet Christmas from snow Xmas night to fog frost dry cloudy misty or even wet and stormy. Could anyone at the moment say for certain what weather we will have Xmas day or even which wind direction? Nope. All still to play for really (even if I don't believe it).

Elmer Blooker · 20-12-2021 1:10am

I just watched the forecast on BBC News 24 to see the prospects for Xmas, it didn’t go beyond Tuesday so a 36 hour forecast is an indication of the uncertainty at the moment.

Gonzo · 20-12-2021 1:51am

The GFS 18z Ensemble, uncertainty is from 23rd of December and after that we have runs that range from +12 uppers to -12 uppers and everything in-between. The warmest outlier get's us to 16C, a temperature that wouldn't be out of place in the middle of July. Of all the time watching these models this is probably the most diverse range of scatter I have ever seen. Absolutely everything is on the table between Christmas Day and early January. The GFS operational is on it's own too with the extreme mild.

Temperatures around 1st of January go 10 to 12C above normal caused by warm air advection. Or you could go to Athens for a blizzard.

BLIZZARD7 · 20-12-2021 5:46am

UKMO is rubbish this morning, GFS 00z however has heavy snow over Ireland moving south Christmas night into St.Stephens day... Still all to play for - if charts at day 5-6 are changing this much and in this much disagreement, there is little point in looking much further at this point.

GFS then keeps us in a cold North easterly flow after this, the opposite of the 18z last night.

Control follows the OP run -

BLIZZARD7 · 20-12-2021 5:52am

GEM is even better - 😎

-8c 850 temps moving into the North East by early morning on the 26th

Hopefully ECM follows the GEM/GFS

Rebelbrowser · 20-12-2021 8:53am

ECM not good, but totally different again including a storm on 27 Dec! Models still all over the place.

Longing · 20-12-2021 9:05am

The ECM had been very poor lately. It not the go to model anymore. I have noticed other models picking up changing signals only for the ECM to follow suit.

Billcarson · 20-12-2021 9:23am

The models are a joke atm. Don't think we will know whats in store for Xmas day till wed or Thursday at this stage.

Donegal Ken · 20-12-2021 9:55am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118350103#Comment_118350103

The Ecmwf weather model picked up on storm Barra 8 days out. Let hope it ain't right this time around.

nacho libre · 20-12-2021 11:15am

A stand off between the the ECM and UKMO on one side, with the GFS and GEM on the other side(Cold). Will the GFS move towards those two on its next run? The ECM while pants in the short term for Christmas day onwards,does hold out promise later on for something colder. Could we have a Scandi high in the New Year?

Billcarson · 20-12-2021 11:25am

Well the latest gfs is still showing the cold winning for later next weekend .

almostthere12 · 20-12-2021 11:39am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118350610#Comment_118350610

It is also showing a lot colder air to the north and northeast come mid-week next week.......could this be the next chase with the high heading to Scandinavia?

PokeHerKing · 20-12-2021 12:28pm

I think the most likely scenario for Xmas wknd is a cold wet mess unfortunately.

icesnowfrost · 20-12-2021 1:04pm

Flip flopping all over the place but one thing looks certain is that some kind of cold snap all be it a few days is on the cards. Still exciting over the next few days. hopefully we can lock in the cold air.

Gonzo · 20-12-2021 2:44pm

Just after taken a look at the models and they are more confused now than ever. The only trend I can see is that we may go into a low level cold snap around the 26th of December for 2 to 3 days and then the mild returns just before New Years. This cold snap if it happens will probably be similar to what we had 1st week of December in terms of cold, nothing too cold and a sleety mix is possible.

Getting very tired of the model uncertainty. We could probably do with a weather/model reset over Christmas holidays, get the Atlantic back for 1 weeks and try and set up a proper cold spell for January and back to hopefully more reliable weather models.

Back to the current situation, the low and where it ends up by Christmas Eve will have a big impact on what weather and temperature setup we will have from Christmas Day to New Years Day. Once that low pushes through the models will hopefully become more reliable again for the short term forcasts.

Changwhitewater · 20-12-2021 3:00pm

There remains a massive spread in the GEFS perturbations, up to 15c on Christmas Day. Here is Dublin for today's 06z and below for yesterday's 12z. Trending colder but a milder outcome still favoured. 12z will be interesting. It must be said though that mild is winning the battle across all models at present. Still, model watching beats listening to the news all day, every day.

esposito · 20-12-2021 3:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118351744#Comment_118351744

When doesn’t the mild win these days 🙄

As mentioned by the above posters I’m getting really fed up with the models. Think I’ll just come to here for the updates over the next few days at least.

Changwhitewater · 20-12-2021 3:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118351842#Comment_118351842

Mild doesn't always win. But you need to assess likely outcome on all information/models and it is most likely that we will have cold rain in Ireland with risk of snow in northern Ulster. Have a feeling that we will be guessing right up to the day itself as it will be marginal as it usually is in Ireland.

Oscar Bravo · 20-12-2021 4:02pm

Even met eireann getting tired with the models lol

"Those keeping a keen eye on the Christmas weather know there has been some uncertainty with regard to conditions later this Christmas week, and that remains the case with the weather models still coming into fine focus from Christmas Day onwards.

At the moment however, Christmas day looks like bringing some further rain at times but dry periods too. Highest temperatures ranging 7 to 10 degrees in mostly moderate east to southeast breezes."

Kermit.de.frog · 20-12-2021 4:58pm

My focus is on Christmas night in terms of potential frontal snowfall. The UKMO and GFS earlier are quite good in that respect.

This is closer to what we want to see and an upgrade on earlier.

The uncertainty remains though unless there is real convergence this evening between all the models.

Billcarson · 20-12-2021 5:16pm

Well things are definitely improving again.........

Slashermcguirk · 20-12-2021 5:23pm

Could all be still to play for over Christmas by the sounds of it in terms of snow. If the models are all over the place could be Wednesday or Thursday by the time we really know what will happen

Gonzo · 20-12-2021 5:30pm

GFS 12z keeps it generally mild throughout the Christmas week with temperatures in the 5 to 9C range by day. Northern Ireland gets a brief flirt with low level cold for a day or so which could allow some sleety wet snow at times and cold rain near coasts. Scotland and eastern UK get about 2 days of cold weather before the mild rolls in from the Atlantic.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST