FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

GEM 12z similar to the GFS 12z brings the cold a bit further west into Northern Ireland and Leinster late Christmas Day and into Stephens Day while remaining fairly mild in the west and south-west. If the low goes any further south we would be in a much better position for some cold and wintryness.

Christmas Day

Stephens Day

The low pressure sweeps to the south of Ireland and becomes a channel low and then drifts over North-West France. Temperatures close to freezing especially across Ulster and Leinster. Another interesting looking low is heading eastwards and will likely cause more complications which will either bring us back into mild weather or keep the cold weather going depending on exact track.

The next week is going to be spent tracking several areas of low pressure and hoping they go well south of us. If they continue to track very close to us or over us then we will stay in a fairly mild setup.

GEM 12z is knife edge stuff throughout. We are generally in low level cold between the mild weather and properly cold weather. We are so close to dragging in some very cold air throughout the Christmas period with this, just that the lows are not going south far enough. If I was living in Scotland I would be getting very excited.

Cold for Christmas Day still is not well supported with the GFS but it wouldn't take much adjustment for many of them to fall in line. Most models are placing the mild/cold boundary somewhere between southern Scotland and Galway/Dublin across to north midlands.

These are the few that brings most of Ireland into the cold for Christmas Day.

This is the best one and actually gets us into the freezer. Very much a cold outlier tho.

This one is also decent.

A few more

roughly 8 out of 31 of the ensemble members look promising for Christmas Day. A southwards shift by about 150 miles to 200 miles would bring many more in line with the above.

ECM 12z is mild from beginning to end with cold just for northern half of Scotland.

We are no closer to resolving Christmas Day and beyond as we were yesterday.

Out of the main models the ECM is by far the most unseasonal and dissapointing.

Gavsweather is expecting tomorrow mornings ECM 6z to flip to cold, even if that happens it doesn't mean Ireland is in the firing line. Currently the British Isles looks like a north-east/south-west split between cold to the north and east and mild to the west and south. We need the low pressures on all models to move another 200 miles or so further south and possibly west for Ireland to gain confidence in colder weather. Tomorrow could well be the day that all models go for cold or mild. If not tomorrow then Wednesday.

UKMO looks good. GFS still needs some work and could go either way. GEM is similar. ECM needs a solid flip to cold by the morning.

Mod Note: The behaviour from Orion 402 is not tolerated here on boards and completely out of order. All posts to do with his abusive and angry posts along with all off-topic posts are removed so can we all get back on topic to the models and try and make sense of the upcoming weather pattern between now and New Years.

The cold tries to make painfully slow progress southwards. If anything Christmas Day is slightly milder on this 18z compared to the 12z, but overall very little difference between the two.

The 18z is a bit of an upgrade as you go past +144 hours.