Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Oh I completely agree... as we've seen several times in recent times, people here don't want to pay for it and can't even agree on the idea of respecting (some of) the traditions of Unionists which we'd absolutely need to do if we wanted them to feel included and part of the process (as opposed to the "we won, **** you" attitude that has been expressed)

Then there's also my default point... we can't even manage the country we have, let alone taking on the problems up North and the new ones that would arise. Plus, other than romanticism and "beating the Brits", what advantage would there be to the citizens down here? I can see why many of those in NI would want it - retaining access/membership of the EU would be a big driver - but what would those in the Republic get out of it? More taxes? A further split/diluted Dail? Less resources to go around?

But I digress... there's many reasons why SF should never be in Government but primarily because they have no other agenda or policies beyond whatever is populist. They would be a disaster - we've already seen the result of these approaches through FF/FG

As for their Covid response... again, what have they proposed beyond a default "whatever is opposite to the Government's position"?

That's how the vast majority of interviews with public figures work anyway. It gives them a chance to answer the questions well.

It would if enough of them would take the jab. Unfortunately that does not seem to be the case. We see that here in Europe, where even in other European states citizens are refusing to take the vaccines for various reasons. The vast majority of which being from getting their information from such "reliable" sites as Facebook, Twitter and website grifters. Many countries in Europe are also suffering from this with those of their citizens or immigrants getting their advice from their own previous home country relations based on the same "reliable" sources as well. Even Romania ended up selling 1 million of their allocated vaccines to Ireland because of low take-up.

How anyone is going to change that, I have no idea, but right now it is what it is and it does not make a great case for any country not to avail of the boosters and donating them to others until they sort out their own population hesitancy.

This is a great site for looking at UK hospitalization date (which we know is far more important than case numbers):

The number of patients on ventilators as of 2 days ago was 879, and is stable or declining. This is down from 1023 at the start of November, or 1055 in September, when there was no talk of restrictions. And Omnicron is already the dominant strain in the UK, they're at least a week ahead of us.

In South Africa, where omnicron has been around for at least a month, hospitalization rates are only 34% that of the Delta wave. And cases have already peaked a week ago and have declined by 65% since:

https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/south-africa

In Ireland our number in the ICU has declined from a peak of 132 a month ago to 102 as of yesterday - a 23% decline. Numbers in hospital have declined in the same period from 685 to 483, a 33% decline.

So why is it all we're hearing is talk of new restrictions, and not talk of rolling back the current ones if hospitalization numbers continue to be stable/declining? Its mind boggling. All we're hearing is predictions of tens of thousands in hospitals, and further lock downs, but the data doesn't support that in any way - in Ireland, the UK, or South Africa...

You will have to consider what the future case load will look like after Christmas and New Years gatherings.

Whilst the variant in of itself is much weaker than Delta it might not make much difference should the sheer amount of cases lead to a similar number of patients entering ICU.

And the UK is pivoting towards restrictions.

You need to have a look at say London.

Cases increasing, hospital admissions increasing and people on ventilation increasing.

Looking at the UK as a whole will mask where omicron is causing issues.

The same reason people were focusing solely on Gauteng figures as that was the hotspot of omicron in SA.

It was prioritised, it just takes longer as the available trial pools are smaller and there are usually more side effects to figure out. They are also much more expensive (monoclonal treatments were available before vaccines, but manufacturing is hard to ramp up and cost was prohibitive).

Vaccines are easier, cheaper and offer a level of protection that does not require people to get sick and that's where the huge bucks were going. Vaccines also give pharma more time for treatments to be developed without the pressure of being the only option.

Regardless of any numbers between now and then we will not be lifting any restrictions. It's just not in the dna of our leaders. Anyway, real world data has no place in our current governments strategy when we have Nolan's modelling.

The infection number will probably dictate reviews into restrictions.

Not dates.

You surely must have learnt this over the last two years at this point.

Also Edinburgh's Hogmanay street party has been cancelled and football matches will be effectively spectator-free as part of tough new Covid rules in Scotland.

A decent chance that a lot of the UK will follow.

We might get closing times extended to 10pm at a push. I can't see full gigs or sporting events being allowed back anytime soon.

I think you already know which metric they use.

What is complete and utter bunkum is your inability to comprehend or perhaps deliberate refusal to acknowledge the psychology of personalities and the complex issue that is human decision making. You talk as if a decision is something that can be input into a computer and then a neat output, something mechanical and therefore the same in every country. The rest of your post is mere repetition of all your posts on this, I think Chris Whitty and Jaap Van Dissel are in your head 24/7.

No point whatsoever in continuing this discussion, I wish you a nice day.