Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII Read OP For Mod Warnings

22-12-2021 8:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362723#Comment_118362723

That's simply unpersuasive.

Let's take 2 examples.

(a) At the time that restrictions were being recommended during summer, you - or your equivalent at the time - could have argued exactly the same point; in which case, restrictions would have continued.

(b) Second, we can relate our COVID-19 experience to other, similar countries who did not impose such restrictions - such as the United Kingdom. This shows that these restrictions are totally unnecessary.

So it's all good to say that Philip Nolan's scenarios (technically they're not 'predictions' because his 'scenarios' are based on certain assumptions - which have also been shown to be false assumptions) are proposed 'if nothing was done', but that's to live in a vacuum. When you consider points (a) and (b) above, we can see why there are significant reasons to be suspect about the way he and others are conducting their so-called "modelling".

AlekSmart · 22-12-2021 8:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118360433#Comment_118360433

The fact is,the authorities choose NOT to provide such data.

Exercising that choice is VERY relevant to the direction we have been told to take.

Fear of the unknown.

charlie14 · 22-12-2021 9:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362165#Comment_118362165

it does appear that some here have given over so much space in their heads for someone to live in that they have no space left when it comes to critical reasoning.

astrofool · 22-12-2021 9:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362735#Comment_118362735

Again, things that happen are not a conspiracy.

You have to explain why they're happening.

The chips (RFID) have existed for a few years already and have been used for lots of things (and they also exist on most phones that people carry around 24/7...), annual boosters have been talked about from the start (question is whether it'll be more than annual, but this will be based on the science).

Don't Chute! · 22-12-2021 9:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362623#Comment_118362623

Should you not be busy nailing all the doors shut in case your murderous sister gets in?

AlekSmart · 22-12-2021 9:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362723#Comment_118362723

Ah the primacy of modelling,and modellers.....another growth era in the Pandemic industry.

The British Pandemic establishment are in a bit of a tizzy after the Spectator magazine's editor managed to get a bit of info from an unguarded Modeller,info that did'nt do a whole lot for the "Science" of Modelling...at all ,at all.....😁

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19799463.bbc-criticised-interview-spectator-editor-covid-modelling/

Fraser Scott's crime,as it now seems,was to ask the gifted,well qualfied professional academic some questions the lad down t'pub might ask if he were to sit beside the Modeller on the 19 bus....

The Pandemic Insustry is doing all it can to fill the media with as much TLDR output,in order to prevent the dopey proletariat from focusing their rheumy eyes on a single line in the interview...

The contentious point came when Medley told Nelson that his team "generally model what we are asked to model" by those setting government policy with a dialogue about what would be best to inform decisions.

It may well be science Faugheen,just not as we know it ? 😃 😃

charlie14 · 22-12-2021 9:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362766#Comment_118362766

If we do relate our COVID-19 experience to our near neighbour the U.K. it shows that they U.K., who were very slow at introducing restrictions initially, have twice the death per capita we have.

I do not know what assumptions the U.K. made with modelling, but their daily new case have risen from 50,004 to more than double that today at 106,122.

22-12-2021 9:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362811#Comment_118362811

And, as I've already said, when Nolan came along demanding extra restrictions because of flawed modelling throughout summer, his modelling was heeded.

We knew at the time he was embarrassingly wrong, not least because of what was happening right across the European continent.

Now, everyone knows it - including politicians, who are more than ever talking about how wrong we were to listen to Nolan's projections of hospitalisations at the height of summer.

The same principle applies here. He and others are ignoring, for whatever reason, the data from South Africa and London (and presumably now Scotland).

And as more days pass, even more evidence (as we predicted) has come to light that Omicron is indeed less severe on the whole; that it's not, as per one of the assumptions in Nolan's modelling, of the same or similar severity to the Alpha or Delta variant.

Modelling is only as good as its assumptions. If an assumption is wrong, the modelling is by default wrong - yet the restrictions will continue.

It's flawed, highly flawed - and represents a pattern over the past couple of years.

But Michael Martin doesn't want to be the politician to preside over some hospital catastrophe (which is an empty fear, regardless), so he blindly follows NPHET for political purposes. NPHET, too, are covering their own backsides because they, too, don't want to be seen to do anything wrong - so they overdo it, and clearly ignore data on the ground in other parts of the world. It's a toxic spiral. Better to overdo it, than underdo it, is their position.

This isn't evidence-based science, let alone "following the science".

It's old fashioned politics and nothing more.

You talk about facts. These are the facts - the scientific and political facts.

Red Silurian · 22-12-2021 10:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362292#Comment_118362292

What are the NPHET hospitalisation figures?

22-12-2021 10:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362955#Comment_118362955

Case count doesn't matter anymore; that's a pre-vaccinated era metric.

What matters is hospitalisations etc.

They've found that 50 percent of so-called "COVID-19 hospitalisations" in London (the figure in SA was as high as 70pc) are incidental findings i.e. that these are people who presented at hospital with some other condition, but who have been found to coincidentally carry the virus (as per hospital protocol to test everyone who arrives at the hospital).

This isn't a "COVID-19 hospitalisation", not in the most elastic meaning of the phrase.

Second, take a look at these graphs (below) - remarkably static admissions.

No risk of a high surge - and this is even more true now that we know the Scottish data (and SA data) that Omicron is two-thirds less likely to cause hospitalisation.

francogarbanzo · 22-12-2021 10:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362697#Comment_118362697

So what you’re saying is his predictions are unfalsifiable because some things have changed since he made them? Nah, not buying it.

Red Silurian · 22-12-2021 10:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362955#Comment_118362955

It was closer to 30,000 daily cases up until a few weeks ago. Still the real figure to watch is hospitals, not cases, England seem to be about a week behind us in this wave and given their case numbers would normally see a spike in hospitalisations this coming week.

The other thing about more case numbers is it will grant natural immunity on more people, every cloud and all that

charlie14 · 22-12-2021 10:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118363187#Comment_118363187

Naturally it is hospitalisations and ICU numbers that count, but as we have seen in the past case numbers do not translate into those right of the bat. it will be a few weeks until we know if this variant is lower, the same, or higher when it comes to serious illness or deaths. While still low, admissions do appear to be tracking cases in that London graph you posted. Which again is what we have seen with previous surges. Hopefully that will tailor off, but as of yet it is too early to say.

I don`t see where the relevance is if someone has tested positive when presenting at a hospital as opposed to random testing. It`s not a new practice where this variant is concerned with hospitals, so it does not change the percentage rise in new cases.

charlie14 · 22-12-2021 11:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118363217#Comment_118363217

I have never given much heed to case numbers since the vaccination percentages started to rise, but we still know very little about the capability of the present vaccines with this virus. Just heard a report where AZ drops to zero after 3 months, Pfizer to 35% and immunity due to a prior infection to 50%. That said it all depends on how severe or not infection are from this variant and so far it is too early to tell.

Naturally immunity was always a bit like Russian Roulette, and with natural immunity now dropping to 50% after 3 months it is not going to give the lifelong immunity some hoped or believed it would.

Sobit1964 · 22-12-2021 11:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118363557#Comment_118363557

Natural immunity drops to 50% after 3 months - against what? A minor reinfection that can only be detected via a test rather than symptoms? You are throwing numbers around - can you provide some sources and atleast make an effort to provide some context.

dubdaymo · 22-12-2021 11:21pm

I don't give a fiddlers f*ck about whatever you're trying to say because it's all based around a lie.

You seem to be completely oblivious to the fact that all of the restrictions imposed on the people come about from those Nolan predictions. (Some might choose to call them lies). These predictions have not only all been wrong but wildly inaccurate - to date. Anyone who doesn't see that is beyond help.

As in all computer programming, it's Rubbish in/Rubbish out. Sadly, the people elected to run the country fall for this every time and here we are....and we will be here again next year.

How many cases could have been prevented if Antigen Testing hadn't been delayed for a year+. Remind me who was responsible for that and is also against hepa ventilation despite the advice of real experts.

How can you still have faith in someone with that record of incompetence?

JRant · 22-12-2021 11:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362723#Comment_118362723

Hmm, where to start with this. How do you think they get from the optimistic to pessimistic scenario?

Yeah, they change some the variables such as R number etc. So they are in fact modelling changes.

This dovetails nicely into the next point. The past two models released were complete bunk because there were changes planned to either the vaccine rollout rate or booster program that were completely ignored and then present as a fact by the CMO and nphet.

Sobit1964 · 22-12-2021 11:27pm

They have ruined the words models/modelling - can pretty young ladies aspiring to fame via their looks please recapture these terms from the increasingly incoherent old men who keep making crazy proclamations of doom?

MisterAnarchy · 22-12-2021 11:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362537#Comment_118362537

No its not.

Firstly its not even modelling its worst case scenario.

As I already explained in post #25982

The models being produced are not predictions, they are scenarios and they only model scenarios that they are specifically told to model by the Government.

They are modelling worse case scenario but with no probability on it and no best case scenario being produced either.

If you know the desired outcome you can create a model to justify it.

The Sage and Nphet models have been consistently incorrect over the last 21 months, mostly by huge margins.

The models Sage and Nphet are creating are supposed to be based on probability and likelihood.

Anyone with a scientific, mathematical or analytical qualification can see that the modelling being used is deeply flawed and nonsensical.

Its been raining all day today, worst case scenario is that it could rain for the next forty days and nights.

Using this scenario I have decided to build a big boat.

Corby Trouser Press · 23-12-2021 12:11am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362446#Comment_118362446

The English have got it right throughout 2021.

Accepting trade off between deaths of elderly and letting the young live a little.

Irish political and media establishment won’t ever admit it though. They just constantly feed the public with Bad Man Boris content, eagerly lapped up of course.

They had a near normal 5 months while we agonised over the likes of staging The Electric Picnic!

And now we’re set for another few months of nothingness after a needlessly restricted year.

They’ll probably emerge from restrictions sooner again in 2022.

And Fintan O’Toole and the likes will keep feeding us hot takes on how racist and horrible Brexit Britain is… while our youth will keep going there for employment and opportunity.

dragonkin · 23-12-2021 12:11am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362769#Comment_118362769

This is conspiracy nonsense, do you think the hospitals are deliberately avoiding telling us this information? This is a rapidly moving pandemic, covid testing for the presence of the virus is the only reliable option we have. Once beyond that it’s very subjective as to say whether someone is there with/from covid. Obviously in most cases the doctor will know and feed this back to NPHET but it’s not something quantifiable that can be put in the stats.

dragonkin · 23-12-2021 12:30am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118363467#Comment_118363467

Absolutely, even if it is slightly milder it’s extremely contagious so will infect far more people during the same time frame. Hospitalisations tail cases by a week or more, so there will be a much clearer picture in a few weeks. Our hospitalisation rates are much higher than they were this time last year, yet people think it’s time to open up, amazing. This was all explained in the HSE briefing.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/1222/1268251-hse-covid-briefing-things-we-learned/

Red Silurian · 23-12-2021 12:33am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118363557#Comment_118363557

Yeah I heard those figures on Sky, they represent resistance to infection, the figures to resistance from severe disease are much much higher.

If omicron is as transmissable as they say and we get 20k cases a day that equates to 200k or 4% of our population catching it the 10 day period of somebody being contagious

Theoretically every single person in the country will have caught it in under 8 months

charlie14 · 23-12-2021 12:45am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118363582#Comment_118363582

As I said I only heard a recent report being referred to, and that was just hearing it in the background and not paying a lot of attention, but it seems the percentage for those with naturally acquired immunity is lower than I thought I heard. Extended data fig 8 is the part I was referring to, but why you are so interested with you believing COVID is just a mild infection I have no idea.

Anyway... here you are. Fill your boots.

http://doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.12.472269

Quantum Erasure · 23-12-2021 12:48am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118363708#Comment_118363708

https://www.boards.ie/categories/models

charlie14 · 23-12-2021 1:01am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364025#Comment_118364025

Yeah, I just posted a link to the complete report. Takes a bit of wadding through, but the relevant section is in Extended Data Fig.8 and according to that, previous infection give virtually no protection from becoming reinfected. (Column on the left listed as convalescent)

It hasn`t been peer reviewed, it has only been posted in the last few days, so hopefully it is incorrect

Sweetemotion · 23-12-2021 1:06am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118363932#Comment_118363932

What the hell are you on about?

A third of people have no symptoms from Covid. If a guy breaks his leg and tests positive for Covid in hospital, he's obviously there with Covid not from Covid.

Stormyteacup · 23-12-2021 1:14am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118363932#Comment_118363932

Sorry to break it to you but it’s not conspiracy nonsense. And can be collected for statistical purposes.

https://www.cso.ie/en/methods/tn/covid-19dataresearchhub/

You can apply for the data for research purposes if you clear the million hurdles first.

Specifically the information you will have access to includes admissions as a result of Covid.

Hearhcare is under pressure but seriously do you believe they don’t fill out a basic form stating reason for admission to hospital?

dragonkin · 23-12-2021 1:20am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364178#Comment_118364178

Why don’t they make this information public?

edit: I see it’s for privacy reasons. Well nonetheless, I’m sure this information is taken into account when decisions are being made. I do think they should relax the privacy restrictions a bit as it seems valuable and important information.

23-12-2021 1:55am

If a vaccine is compulsory to partake in normal society, then surely any negative effects from the vaccine you are compelled to take should be the responsibility of the maker or the person who enforced this on you?

As long as the makers of this "vaccine" or the government aren't responsible for any adverse effects, why wouldn't they take a punt?

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII Read OP For Mod Warnings