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All Covid-19 measures are permanent, don't be a boiling frog!

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  • Registered Users Posts: 438 ✭✭Spiderman0081


    Let’s compare Sweden to a half dozen countries, just not the other 50 or so countries in the western world who have fared much worse. Despite their draconian measures.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,055 ✭✭✭silliussoddius


    Just to give you an idea of what is being passed around as a serious alternative to the MSM.

    https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/dec/20/facebook-posts/self-published-book-omicron-was-not-copyrighted-va/



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Thank you, brianhere. A very interesting article.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Nothing wrong with his saying that. The point is that it is not inconceivable to believe that restrictions/lockdowns could be used henceforth in the interests of the 'wider protection of public health'. The restrictions/lockdowns up to now were because of covid. But now it's 'the wider protection of public health'. Do you not see what the issue is here?


    Why would they be used throughout the year? They were used all of last summer and all of this year has been restricted and continues to be increasingly restricted. Not just the winter months.


    I don't think I'm spinning what he said. That's what he said. He said the government might be able to give people 'periods of freedom' during the year. Do you think those 'periods of freedom' would be restriction free? If you do then I don't know what to say. It would be a few places open, but masks, social distancing, and vaccine certs required. And he didn't even say 'definitely have 'periods of freedom'. He said:


    "perhaps in advance of those winters and those variants, we should try to have periods of freedom and give people a bit of a break ..."


    Do you think there's anything to what Brendan O'Neill is saying in the following article: The erasure of liberty - spiked (spiked-online.com)


    "Leo Varadkar has said the quiet part out loud. The Tánaiste (deputy prime minister) of Ireland has made it clear that we are now in a forever war with Covid and that one of the chief casualties will be freedom. On Friday, as Ireland introduced a raft of new measures to limit the impact of Omicron, Varadkar said the Covid crisis could last for ‘several years’. It’s a ‘long war’, he said. Then came the killer line, words that should chill not only the inhabitants of Ireland but people across western Europe. Looking forward to the bleak, illiberal future Covid will allegedly force us to live under, Varadkar said that ‘perhaps in advance of those winters and those variants, we should try to have periods of freedom and give people a bit of a break…’.


    Periods of freedom. Those three words should worry everyone. They capture, possibly better than any other utterance from a member of the political class over the past 21 months, just what a historic reorganisation of society we are currently living through. Varadkar’s dispiriting dream is one of permanent restrictions and lockdowns, though they’ll occasionally be punctured by ‘periods of freedom’. By brief respites from government control. By intervals of a few months, or perhaps just a few weeks, in which your gracious leaders will allow you to do what you want. Until winter starts to loom again, that is, with its promise of respiratory disease, and then your ‘period of freedom’ will be over. Varadkar’s unguarded statement confirms that in the era of Covid, the relationship between the state and the individual is being radically rearranged, to the benefit of the former and the degradation of the latter.


    Of all the countries in Europe that are slipping and sliding back into lockdown or lockdown-lite, it is Ireland that worries me most. Ireland is one of the most vaccinated countries in the continent. More than 90 per cent of its eligible population has received two shots. That compares to around 80 per cent in the UK, 70 per cent in Germany, and 55 per cent in Poland. The booster rollout is going well, too. At the time of writing, 1.5million booster shots have been administered – not bad for a country with a population of just five million. And yet despite all this, despite the fact that the Irish people have very high levels of protection against the worst impacts of Covid, still the restrictions keep coming; still normality remains a distant dream."


    He continues:


    "Some officials in Ireland want the government to clamp down even harder. The National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) – basically Ireland’s SAGE – has proposed a curfew of 5pm for pubs, restaurants and cinemas. In short, there’d be nothing to do at the end of the working day. Everything would be shut. This would be a lockdown in all but name. Thankfully, even the lockdown-happy elites of Dublin have pushed back against this hocus-pocus proposal for controlling the spread of Omicron. Christopher O’Sullivan, the TD for Cork South-West, said ‘Many people are triple vaccinated but [they wouldn’t] be able to enjoy a meal or a drink with a friend after 5pm in a restaurant’.


    O’Sullivan raises an important point about the broader state of affairs in Ireland, and across Europe too, in fact. Huge numbers of people are vaccinated now. And we were told, in fairly certain terms, that once we were vaccinated, once more and more people had been protected against serious ill-health or death from Covid-19, things would go back to normal. Yes, Covid would still rise and fall, still spread, still infect, but we’d get on with life in the face of it, as we do with flu or the common cold. This, clearly, is no longer the case. Now even the people of super-vaccinated Ireland can have liberty and choice rescinded the minute a new variant emerges. Yes, Omicron seems to have some ability to evade vaccine immunity, but the evidence so far suggests it causes mostly mild disease in protected people. The NPHET’s most dire prediction is that 2,000 people could end up in hospital with Omicron next month. Two thousand out of five million. That’s 0.04 per cent of the population requiring hospital treatment, in the worst-case scenario. I’m sorry, but a country that cannot provide hospital care to 0.04 per cent of its people without shutting down everyday liberty needs to have a very serious word with itself.


    For everyone in Europe who cares about liberty, Ireland should set the alarms ringing. A heavily vaxxed country facing the possibility of just 2,000 people requiring hospital treatment is enforcing new restrictions and talking about rationing freedom for years and years. This shows, very clearly, that the democratic way of life is being snuffed out by the Covid culture of fear."


    Based on what Brendan O'Neill is saying, how can there be any justification for restrictions with 0.4 percent of the population requiring hospital treatment? And that's the worst-case scenario, by the way.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,055 ✭✭✭silliussoddius


    So what/who is to gain by the eradication of liberty? And not an ounce of self awareness by talking about a culture of fear.



  • Registered Users Posts: 857 ✭✭✭PintOfView


    "how can there be any justification for restrictions with 0.4 percent of the population requiring hospital treatment? And that's the worst-case scenario, by the way."

    Do you know how many hospital beds we have in the whole of Ireland? Ans = 14,000. How many of those do you think are empty waiting for Covid patients to take them up? I don't know where you get 0.4% from, but that's 20,000 people. Have you thought this through? (and btw, what makes you think that's a worst case scenario?)

    I asked you the following, and you have so far studiously avoided addressing it ...

    Again I ask, what would you propose the government do? If you were the CMO, or minister for health, what would you propose we all do right now. Would you remove restrictions completely? If you did that what would you expect to happen as regards case numbers and hospitalisations in the next month or two?


    If you can't, or won't, say what you would do, then it undermines any other arguments you make, because this is the hard decision that needs to be taken right now, and if you can't make that decision what right have you to criticise those that are making the decisions?




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Sorry, typo. 0.04%. From Brendan O'Neill's article:


    "The NPHET’s most dire prediction is that 2,000 people could end up in hospital with Omicron next month. Two thousand out of five million. That’s 0.04 per cent of the population requiring hospital treatment, in the worst-case scenario. I’m sorry, but a country that cannot provide hospital care to 0.04 per cent of its people without shutting down everyday liberty needs to have a very serious word with itself."


    I've already said before what I'd do. I wouldn't have mandates. Everything would be recommendations and voluntary. I think it's especially important in a country such as Ireland that, unlike England or the US, for example, doesn't have a culture/tradition of liberty, has a non-functioning Fourth Estate, and where the political parties are identical, that a very fragile liberty not be dismantled. I also have said that I believe 99% of people would continue with the masking, distancing etc without it being mandatory.


    Do you think there's anything to what Brendan O'Neill is saying?


    And why would making recommendations result in a catastrophe. Nphet's own worst-case scenario is 2,000 people requiring hospital care. That's 2,000 people out of a population of 4.5 million.


    And just to add, you might say that the projection of 2,000 people requiring hospital care is based on restrictions being in place. But I'm saying that people would continue with all the restrictions even if they were recommendations. That's based on the overwhelming compliance with all of the restrictions. And then we must remember that nphet's modelling has been extremely pessimistic and very inaccurate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 857 ✭✭✭PintOfView



    "The NPHET’s most dire prediction is that 2,000 people could end up in hospital with Omicron next month. Two thousand out of five million. That’s 0.04 per cent of the population requiring hospital treatment, in the worst-case scenario. I’m sorry, but a country that cannot provide hospital care to 0.04 per cent of its people without shutting down everyday liberty needs to have a very serious word with itself."

    I don't have access or time to go through NPHET's assessment, or their conclusions. However I would expect that they have enough voices in the room to look at the different parameters of the problem and to draw a conclusion that is in the ball park of reasonable. They are surely more aware of the hospital situation that you or me, or Brendan O'Neill. What makes you think you know better?

    I've already said before what I'd do. I wouldn't have mandates. Everything would be recommendations and voluntary. I think it's especially important in a country such as Ireland that, unlike England or the US, for example, doesn't have a culture/tradition of liberty, has a non-functioning Fourth Estate, and where the political parties are identical, that a very fragile liberty not be dismantled. I also have said that I believe 99% of people would continue with the masking, distancing etc without it being mandatory.

    So what would you recommend then? Would you be recommending pubs close at 5pm, and masks on public transport, and minimising contacts with people outside of your household, etc., until the end of January, and then review the situation?

    Do you think there's anything to what Brendan O'Neill is saying?

    From the bits that you quoted above I'm not sure I'm that impressed. As far as I can see he's focusing on narrow aspects of the situation, yet drawing general conclusions that are not justified by his arguments. I don't think anything of what is happening is about liberty or freedom, but it's simply reacting to the virus that confronts us. When we reach an equilibrium with the virus, possibly as a seasonal thing like the flu, then I don't foresee any impact on normal life as it was before the pandemic. As it was, until a few days ago life was pretty close to back to normal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,105 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    What is the point of comparing countries that have little or nothing in common when we have neighbouring countries with many similarities who adopted difference strategies we can compare to as to how their different strategies worked ?

    Other than it would it prove very embarrassing for you where Sweden is concerned by doing that



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  • Registered Users Posts: 438 ✭✭Spiderman0081


    Yes, all of the people I know here in Sweden are embarrassed. You are correct.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,105 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Their King Carl XVI Gustaf certainly was when he went public declaring the strategy had failed the people.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,105 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    There you go. Off again looking at the trees and missing the forest, and I would have thought with all your trawling the internet you would at the very least known what the population is

    If we have a permanent 2,000 beds for just Covid patients, how many beds do you believe we should have in total, how many permanent ICU beds and what is the total number of staff that will be required and at what annual cost ?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I have no reason to believe Brendan O'Neill isn't right about the worst-case scenario of 2,000 people requiring hospital care. I doubt he made it up. That's out of a population of almost 5 million. Do you think restrictions are justified based on that number?


    How accurate has nphet's modelling been?


    It wasn't pretty close to normal. Masks required almost everywhere, covid cert required almost everywhere, social distancing mandatory. The problem is that people have become inured to restrictions. One hears people talk of 'normal apart from x, y and z'. In other words, not normal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 857 ✭✭✭PintOfView


    "I have no reason to believe Brendan O'Neill isn't right about the worst-case scenario of 2,000 people requiring hospital care. I doubt he made it up. That's out of a population of almost 5 million. Do you think restrictions are justified based on that number?"

    But you can say you have no reason to disbelieve any random person, about anything. Did Brendan O'Neill explain where he got the number from? As regards whether that number justifies restrictions, I don't have all the information to make that judgement, I would need to see all the parameters of the situation, which presumably NPHET has. I guess I have enough experience, in my own work, to know that stuff that looks obvious, and easy, very often times isn't!

    "How accurate has nphet's modelling been?"

    I don't know, but I don't have any reason to believe their modelling is not good, based on the information available to them. Who do you suggest are better placed to do up a model and make a projection? I looked at their modelling approx last June and what subsequently happened over the rest of the summer seemed to be within the limits they projected.

    "It wasn't pretty close to normal. Masks required almost everywhere, covid cert required almost everywhere, social distancing mandatory. The problem is that people have become inured to restrictions. One hears people talk of 'normal apart from x, y and z'. In other words, not normal."

    But why would you expect everything to be completely normal? The virus hasn't gone away, so how can everything be 100% normal? You can see how this Omicron variant has swept the world in a few short weeks. Doesn't that justify the caution with which the government and health people managed things this last few months? I can say that in the circumstances I didn't find any of the restrictions very onerous and I was/am happy to follow the restrictions, and things were so normal up to a couple of weeks ago I nearly forgot sometimes.

    And once the threat the virus poses to the population, and to the health system, fades, or disappears, I fully expect the restrictions to follow suit (and if they remained, out of inertia for eg., people would likely ignore them anyway).



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    You have no reason to believe their modelling isn't good? Both nphet's modelling and sage's modelling has been very inaccurate. You seem to be very deferential to experts. What about the experts quoted in this article who say sage's modelling is fiction: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10328333/amp/Why-easier-believe-Father-Christmas-SAGEs-6k-Covid-deaths-day-projection.html


    In my opinion, it doesn't justify the caution. There is a tiny number of people in hospital relative to the population size. The evidence out of South Africa, Denmark and Scotland suggests Omicron is mild. And yet all the focus is on case numbers, modelling and lockdowns. One case in Western Australia the other day and mad panic and shutting of businesses. I don't see how it ever ends.


    At least you've left the door opening to restrictions never being lifted by writing "if they remained".



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,544 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    "The evidence out of South Africa, Denmark and Scotland suggests Omicron is mild. "

    And yet Scotland reintroduced restrictions, so are Scotland wrong even though you have used them as some sort of proof for your point?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Scotland tightening restrictions proves my point: it never ends and it can't end when cases are the metric.


    "It ends when it's epidemic". There will still be cases when it's epidemic, so that's not true.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,484 ✭✭✭Fighting Tao


    You should look up the definition of words you use. ‘Never’ has a meaning that you don’t understand.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,079 ✭✭✭relax carry on


    What is your solution to all of this then since you appear to be wasting your time with us here when you could be selling that solution to governments around the globe? Just what is it exactly dobyou believe to be going on on how would you address it using your obviously formidable skillset?



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I'm saying if cases are the metric, which they are in many countries, then it can't end. Do you agree with me?


    My solution is to make everything voluntary. There were pandemics in the past and life carried on as normal. In lots of countries restrictions are based on cases and/or models.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,544 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    "My solution is to make everything voluntary. There were pandemics in the past and life carried on as normal"

    Except for those pandemics where it didn't and they had mandatory mask wearing and such.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,960 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    The virus is mutating, cases increase, countries react. The virus doesn't have a timetable, we are reacting to it.

    Like many conspiracy theorists you've been chopping and changing your unintelligible narrative to fit whatever happens, latching onto conspiracies and notions, then dumping them. The explanation is simple, but apparently you don't like it, so you invent your own.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Yes, and there will always be variants and cases, so it can't end if cases are the metric.


    I haven't chopped and changed any narrative. I agree with brianhere that the measures will be permanent. He has given many examples of measures that were said to have been temporary, but were anything but. Was brianhere right about the measures he listed that ended up being permanent (you probably won't answer that question)? But I'm more 99% of them will be permanent. There might be 'periods of (heavily restricted) freedom'.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,079 ✭✭✭relax carry on


    Well fair play to you for at least saying what you'd do. Don't agree with you in the slightest at all but at least you've said you'd make public health a voluntary matter. I'm afraid functional societies have terms and conditions attached. The public health measures being implemented here are being implemented by the government of the day. Once our next election cycle rolls by you'll be free to vote for a party/candidate that supports your voluntary approach to public health. You are even free to run on thta platform yourself. While your at it, could you make taxes voluntary too?

    Now that you've at least advised what you would do, back to the topic at hand, could you advise what is the conspiracy here and what is its purpose?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I didn't say public health should be voluntary. I said the restrictions should be voluntary. I don't think it would make any difference because I have said before that 95-99% of people would wear masks, socially distance, and would get themselves tested every other day. And I'm talking about making them voluntary now, after two years of restrictions. That context is important. People have become inured to the restrictions and the 'new normal', so not a lot would change if they were made voluntary. I would basically do what Sweden has done for the past two years. Cap on numbers, and advice.


    Ireland isn't a functional society. It has no functioning Fourth Estate, and no functioning democracy because the political parties are identical. For whom could a conservative person vote in Ireland? Choice is limited to a handful of Independents.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,960 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    You aren't agreeing with Brianhere. That poster believes all measures are part of a Communist take-over. You believe all measures are permanent due to virus variants. Those are two completely different things.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,055 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    It seems you are the one missing the forrest.

    Even with 4000 permanent beds for just covid patients the cost of maintaining and staffing them would be negligent compared to cost of on and off lockdowns and restrictions. Negligent.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I am sympathetic to brianhere's argument without wishing to fully embrace it. I have to see what the Great Reset brings first. I'll have a better idea after that. I am also sympathetic to NaFírinne's biblical perspective on things. That doesn't mean I agree with it.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    patnor1011, apparently lockdowns don't cost anything if you were to believe a lot of posters on boards. Apparently the economy is in great shape. And according to Varadkar the government might be able to grant 'periods of freedom' in what he described as a 'war'.



This discussion has been closed.
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