The Coming World War

Putin has always been clear about his motivations:

1. Preventing any more of the "near abroad" countries joining NATO
2. Restoring the respect on the world stage that Russia lost when the Soviet Union collapsed

At the root of #1 is the fear of being surrounded by enemies and ultimately being invaded. In a world of hypersonic missiles and cyber attacks that might seem like an anachronistic fear but all you need to do is look at Russia's history to see why this is so lodged in their psyche. In the past 210 years alone Napoleon, The Ottomans and the Nazis have all invaded Russia. Ukraine is a large flat country that acts as a buffer zone between Russia and a whole host of NATO countries. it's also commonly seen as the cradle of the Russian people themselves (Kievan Rus').

So, control of Ukraine or to put it another way, not letting control of Ukraine pass into "enemy" hands is a major prize in and of itself for Russia. That is what Putin would get. Control of Ukraine now and for the long-term. It would be similar to how China invaded Tibet in the 1950s both to secure their water supply and to prevent a future where India might invade Tibet first.

So what's the cost? "Russia would be a real pariah state". There are a few ways of looking at that statement. Firstly, to whom would it be a pariah state? China certainly wouldn't care and they're the latest target market for Russian natural resources. What's Europe going to do? Stop importing Russian gas? That would be cutting off their nose to spite their face. Many European countries are building LNG terminals to import from other countries and ramping up renewables but those are only sticking plasters - they need Russian gas supplies and Russia knows it. No doubt the Americans would pile on more sanctions but can they really hurt Putin?

The real victims of more sanctions are likely to be the ordinary Russian people. So what? They don't live in a real democracy. The media is dominated by pro-Kremlin outlets. No serious political opposition is tolerated. Protests are either banned or broken up violently by the police. For a lot of older Russians the memories of the chaos and humiliations of the 1990s haunt them and they are eternally loyal to Putin for bringing about stability. The only real fear for Putin would be that some of the wealthy elite might be shut out of sending their wealth abroad to the western countries of their choice (U.K., Cyprus, USA etc). No doubt they'll be able to find other locations for their loot and to send their children to be educated in instead.

I poo-poo'd the original post in this thread which envisaged a Russian attack on actual NATO countries. Ukraine....that's a different matter entirely. If it's going to happen it'll be early next year when the ground freezes.

This has got nothing to do with Afghanistan, US was winding down there for years, Trump set a withdrawal date but not a withdrawal plan. If he'd won the election the endgame would have been, if anything, more chaotic.

That "weak Biden" trope again... can you justify this?

What has Biden got to mess up. Putin acted tough and now has realised that Europe and the US will not tolerate an invasion of the the Ukraine. Biden is adopting the Teddy Roosevelt's strategy, '' walk softly and carry a big stick''.

We have had posters on here about the size of the Russian tank army, not realising it is mostly Cold War equipment 50 years out of date, as is there navy and airforce.

Now that he has sh!t in his pants after it was put up to him......we have the weak Biden line.

His record in Afghanistan and the shambolic withdrawal, abandoning the Bagram air base that would have given the US a strategic presence in the region close to Iran. If Biden had a big stick he didn't exactly use it in Afghanistan did he in fact he left that big stick to the taliban with all the hardware he left behind there.

As for Biden adopting the Teddy Roosevelt line "Where is my stick I need it to walk" would be more apt

Again a lot of revisionism here. The 31st og August withdrawal datewas set by Donald Trump in Feb 2020. Like many Trump policies there was nothing concrete put in Place. You then had his shambolic attempt to hold onto power after the Election. Problem was when Trump announced it he had not made sure that the Afghan army and government were capable of fighting the Taliban or controling the country. The american people at that stage wanted out it was impossible to try to rearrange the deckchairs in 4-6 months as local Afghan warlords and military leaders started to make deals that lead to the Taliban controling the country before the withdrawal date.

You have got the wrong Roosevelt.

thats the key weakness for Putin that Russia is not exactly taking part in the wealth creation going on in the West in the last decade. The Russian people will not tolerate a military adventure in Ukraine when their economy is falling behind their contemporaries in Europe. For all the talk about China, the Russian people don't care about China, they care about keeping up with the Jones in Europe, thats where Russians go on holidays (those that can afford it) , thats what they measure themselves against.

Putin might have got some reprieve recently with the good revenues returning for their oil and gas exports but he really needs sanctions with Russia to be lifted now. Putin is a master strategist and has outsmarted the US and Europe for the last decade but this time he may have over reached with his actions in Ukraine. The skill for the West is to allow Putin to retreat back from this position

I think Vlad's general tactic is to disrupt, disturb, disrupt. He made Russia relevant again with the way they used internet to disrupt social discourse in Europe and America by turning everyone against each other.

Political discourse in America is beyond toxic now. It's getting that way in Europe now too. The Russians have played a big part in that by amplifying extreme voices on both sides.

Now he sees a massive opportunity. Disruption is afoot in Europe. Protests getting bigger every week for Covid passes. Green party movements getting bigger. Countries destroying themselves with Green movements. He mentioned this the other day in his annual press conference about how Europe has created its own problems in terms of the energy crisis.

Vlad knows that people in Europe will not stand for losing their quality of life to suit the climate change agenda.

So in Europe you have social meltdown on Covid passes, inflation, energy crisis, a French election, all within the next 3-4 months. He can invade Ukraine now in the next month, turn off the gas pipes to Europe. He won't be physically opposed because Europe is too busy fighting their internal battles. Refugee crisis into Europe from Ukraine. Serbia/Bosnia kicks off, more Refugees into Europe. EU countries start cutting their own deals for gas with Russia. And countries are already at each others throats over refugees.

Pure disruption. He only needs something to happen in America to keep them distracted. A policeman shooting a black man is enough to tip things over the edge. Weeks of rioting and looting.

yes there are problems in Europe but only at the extremes and the media loves to focus on those extremes . Its also true to an extent that Russia is behind fostering extremism on social media but only tangentially sure the tech companies themselves are the biggest culprits here not Russia. The facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen revealed alot of the dark arts behind how facebook designs its own algorithms to foster extremism itself. The tech companies are American not Russian afterall.

Even if you were to buy into the narrative that Europe is about to collapse due to waves of extremism and protests over inflation and energy how does Putin take advantage of that by invading Ukraine? Why create instability in Russia by a very risky intervention surely the easist thing for him to do would be to sit back and just reap in the high energy prices and just watch it all unfold then

I have noticed in the last few years that when I share a post on Facebook it doesn’t seem to get anything like the response I get for posting an original post of my own creation. Is this Facebook putting the brakes on the spread of information on their platform. If it is it’s no harm really.

it seems to be the same whether it’s news items or mundane postings from other users the likes and reactions are only a fraction of what you get for posting your own original stuff.

The danger for Russia is in its East becoming a Chinese possession.

Hard to see it not happening.

It was not the us that installed Yeltsin. He was made by the slow pace of reform and the inability of the Communist party to let go control of the country. Ya Russia would have been better served of Gorbachev had survived longer. The falling out between himself and Yeltsin was bad for Russian people. But Yeltsin was not installed by the US. He was just an incapable russian president who sourrounded himself with corrupt people and may have been himself

Not only did the US install Yeltsin but they openly bragged about it and didn’t even try to hide the fact, look up ‘Time Magazine, Yanks to the rescue’

Yeltsin is nothing more than a cartoon character on the cover of the magazine.

It is very obvious that the US enjoyed rubbing Russia’s nose in the dirt and humiliating them after they ‘won’ the Cold War.

Since when has Time Magazine been the defacto documents if US foreign policy.

What you are spouting is rubbish. Yeltsin prevent the 1990 hard-line putsch.

Gorbachev crested an elected assembly but Yeltsin was the main beneficiary. Gorbachev was being squeezed between hardliners and liberals led by Yeltsin. He had an agreement with Yeltsin for reform however the 1991 putsch by hard-line Communists against Gorbachev made Yeltsin the main power figure in Russia after he got the General public out in the street against the army tanks. Ordinary soldiers switched sides. Gorbachev survived but was mortality wounded as a leader. The hardliners hated him over allowing the break up of the Warsaw pact countries and the liberal taught he was acting too slow.

Yeltsin climb to power after that was unstoppable and he opened up Russia too fast. The main beneficiary were Russian oligarchs who seized control of businesses and resources.

If you want to be critical of anything it there failure of the West to financially support Russia when Gorbachev was in power.

Rags like Time and Newsweek make a lot of unsubstantiated claims which are mostly exaggerated.