Would you be happy for your children to receive covid-19 vaccine

hometruths · 15-12-2021 9:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118326386#Comment_118326386

I assuming it is the medrxiv study that you consider "real data", and having read it, as far as I can see their data is real. In a nutshell, their conclusions are:

The highest risk subgroup is 12-17 year old males, with 66.7 cases per million second doses and 9.8 per million first doses for a combined total of 76.5 cases per million vaccine recipients. Our results suggest that, even for this high-risk subgroup, the risk of myocarditis from COVID-19 infection is about 5.9 times as great, at a rate of 450 cases per million.

Fine, assuming this yet to be peer reviewed study is positively peer reviewed, then it seems reasonable to believe the data that the vaccination risk is 76.5 per million and the infection risk is 450 per million.

But in the context of risk/benefit analysis for vaccinating a healthy 12 year old the above comparison is only helpful if you think infection is inevitable.

Because once you vaccinate the child they are immediately exposed to the 76.5 cases per million risk. They will only be facing the 450 per million risk if they actually get COVID.

The authors adjusted figures based on the assumption that 9.2% of the population contracted COVID between April 2020 and March 2021. If that % held for the 12-17 population, in order to compare like with like you need to factor in the fact that the 450 in million figure is nearly 10 times too high.

Having considering that the risks look pretty even to slightly higher risk from vaccination.

Personally, as a parent, it would not be a hard decision to make.

Of course if omicron is 8 times or whatever more infectious than Delta, then you might think well infection is probably inevitable, and that risk/benefit might change in favour of the vaccine. But equally it might change against the vaccine if omicron is ten times less severe. Nobody knows.

patnor1011 · 15-12-2021 9:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118327719#Comment_118327719

Most of self-taught virology and vaccine experts here only know copy/paste some studies. Very few of them actually understand what is in front of them. :)

Lumen · 16-12-2021 7:25am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118327719#Comment_118327719

I broadly agree with your treatment of numbers, but came to a different conclusion (as a parent of 12-17 year olds).

The way I looked at it, the carditis risks were broadly of the same magnitude (factoring in probability of infection) but both tiny, so I largely discounted them and considered other factors, those being disruption to education and risk of infecting vulnerable relatives.

To use an analogy, consider planning a family holiday. One factor is the risk of dying in a transport accident, but whilst the risks vary between transport modes, I don't make the decision on a destination based on how I'm getting there, because those risks are tiny.

Of course the first law of analogies is that people who disagree with the broader point will pick holes in them as a distraction tactic, but whatever.

There was also the more minor motivator of taking an active step, of fighting rather than hiding.

In hindsight, I would do the same again. Despite that vaccinating teens hasn't done much to reduce cases in the wider community, my kids have had an entirely disruption-free year to date, something I partly attribute to the almost complete vaccination uptake in their secondary school. The same cannot be said by the primary school parents I know in this country, nor by relatives of less vaccinated teens I know in the UK.

hometruths · 16-12-2021 8:07am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118329254#Comment_118329254

And this is a good example of why a parent's choice should be respected. There is no right or wrong answer, but based on the available info, and what is relevant to your family circumstances, you've made a rational decision. Anybody who says definitively one or the other is correct, is talking nonsense!

I actually agree with your transport analogy, and have used similiar in my thinking about my child - a 5 year old. i.e What is the point of vaccinating her against a disease when she has a statistically higher chance of ending up in ICU from a car accident than from COVID?

Whilst you can argue that if the risks are from the vaccine are tiny why not just get it done anyway? My thinking is that whilst the known risks are tiny there remain potentially unknown longer term risks, and if the benefit is also tiny why expose her to an unknown risk?

For example, a little over ten years ago, corners were cut in vaccine development in the interests of fighting a potential pandemic. Anthony Fauci said:

“The track record for serious adverse events is very good. It’s very, very, very rare that you ever see anything that’s associated with the vaccine that’s a serious event,” he said.

Four months earlier, the World Health Organization had declared H1N1 influenza a pandemic, and by October 2009 the new vaccines were being rolled out across the world. A similar story was playing out in the UK, with prominent organisations, including the Department of Health, British Medical Association, and Royal Colleges of General Practitioners, working hard to convince a reluctant NHS workforce to get vaccinated. “We fully support the swine flu vaccination programme … The vaccine has been thoroughly tested,” they declared in a joint statement.

This was Pandemrix. Today it is accepted that it caused narcolepsy in children, and the same governments who promoted its use are paying out compensation to children, including Ireland.

You see a lot of the same arguments today in favour of covid vaccines that were used in favour of Pandemrix in 2009.

lawred2 · 16-12-2021 8:35am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118319205#Comment_118319205

Where did you copy and paste that from?

TaurenDruid · 16-12-2021 11:27am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118327719#Comment_118327719

The authors adjusted figures based on the assumption that 9.2% of the population contracted COVID between April 2020 and March 2021. If that % held for the 12-17 population, in order to compare like with like you need to factor in the fact that the 450 in million figure is nearly 10 times too high.

What's your basis for doing that? It's not the conclusion the researchers reached, which is, as you acknowledge, a rate of 450/million.

Having considering that the risks look pretty even to slightly higher risk from vaccination.

Except they're not:

* Myocarditis risks from Covid-19 vaccines are still less than the risks from Covid-19 - The risk of myocarditis has been found to be roughly 16 times higher in Covid-19 patients than in the uninfected. (Source: https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/comment/myocarditis-risks-covid-19-vaccines/ 1st December 2021)

* Covid-19: Study that claimed boys are at increased risk of myocarditis after vaccination is deeply flawed, say critics (Source: https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2251 14 September 2021).

hometruths · 16-12-2021 2:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118329883#Comment_118329883

I think the point I was making went over your head. No worries. It's only important if you're considering vaccinating a 12-17 year which I presume you're not.

glut22 · 22-12-2021 9:20pm

BBC News - Covid vaccine should be offered to vulnerable five to 11-year-olds

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59758780

Interesting number needed to treat to prevent icu admission figures for vunerable and healthy 5-11 year olds

harrylittle · 25-12-2021 9:45pm

Is it a slip up in coversation or did he really mean it . its a pretty serius thing to say ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHk71KuOvGc

TaurenDruid · 26-12-2021 3:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118372981#Comment_118372981

/facepalm.gif

There's a conspiracy theory board. This isn't it.

TaurenDruid · 26-12-2021 3:34pm

Ah, wait, I see you believe the vaccines are magnetic and make us glow in the dark, too. Carry on, so...

rogue-entity · 26-12-2021 4:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117631634#Comment_117631634

I don't feel outrage, I feel pity. I'm also of the mind that if someone intentionally and knowingly avoids taking the vaccine when they could, and get sick, they should be held financially liable. The rest of us should not be liable for the folly of others.

Yes, I would vaccinate my children, without hesitation.

lawred2 · 26-12-2021 5:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118372981#Comment_118372981

My money is on a simple mistake. Funny that it didn't register with him even one bit...

Danno · 26-12-2021 11:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118374743#Comment_118374743

And when someone who has taken the vaccine gets sick, should Pfizer/Moderna pay the hospital bills then... cause their vaccine failed in that instance?

Also, when the EU come knocking at the door from 2023 onwards looking for taxes to pay for the expenses incurred by Covid should those who didn't take the vaccine be exempt from paying into that kitty? Someone who decides not to get vaccinated has not signed up to your fluffy social contract therefore should not have to pay the costs.

You see, everything works both ways really.

TaurenDruid · 26-12-2021 11:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118376189#Comment_118376189

The vaccine costs (governments) a few euro per shot. Someone getting sick form COVID costs more; more again if they're hospitalised; more on top of that if they end up on ICU. Someone taking the vaccine is saving the taxpayer money in the long run (either they don't get COVID, or, hopefully, if they do get it, it's less severe). So your "everything works both ways really" doesn't hold up to scrutiny...

Bass Reeves · 27-12-2021 11:15am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118376189#Comment_118376189

Like so many anti vaxers you do not understand how vaccines work. They teach the immune system. Even at that if you read or understood the medical literature in the case of COVID on about 5-12% of recipients of vaccines gives little or no immunity depending on vaccine type. So neither Moderns/Phizer or any other vaccine can cover that.

What they do is reduce the severity and the transmissibility of the disease in the vaccinated. The flu vaccine works exactly the same way. The MMR vaccine is more successful than either the flu or COVID vacvine. It hides the physical markings of these diseases and it appears as a 24-48 hour rise in temperature.

Omicron is a more infectious but less virulent form.of COVID. The disease as it mutates seems to become more infectious but less virulent which is good and bad.

waxmoth · 27-12-2021 12:30pm

This study was published 2 days ago based on UK figures for 42 million vaccinations (~38m double dose). https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268276v1.full.pdf

'However, the notable exception was that in younger males receiving a second dose of mRNA-1273 vaccine, the risk of myocarditis was higher following vaccination than infection, with an additional 101 events estimated following a second dose of mRNA-1273 vaccine compared to 7 events following a positive SARS-CoV-2 test.'

These figures are only for myocarditis and not total risk. Our medical and scientific experts are fully aware of the mechanisms of harm.

TaurenDruid · 27-12-2021 12:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118377397#Comment_118377397

Somewhat selective quoting, there? First, the study was only on children aged 13 and up. After your quote, they go on to note:

Third, although we were able to include 2,136,189 children aged 13 to 17 years old in this analysis, the number of myocarditis events was too small (n=43 in all periods and n=15 in the 1-28 days post vaccination) in this population and precluded an evaluate of risk. Given our observation that risk is largely confined to males under the age of 40 years further research is needed pooling data from international studies to evaluate further the risks in children. In summary, the risk of hospital admission or death from myocarditis is greater following COVID-19 infection than following vaccination and remains modest following sequential doses of mRNA vaccine including a third booster dose of BNT162b in the overall population. However, the risk of myocarditis following vaccination is consistently higher in younger males, particularly following a second dose of RNA mRNA-1273 vaccine.

Danno · 27-12-2021 1:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118377152#Comment_118377152

And like so many authoritarians you think that any differing opinion = antivax. I've my vaccine got as does half my family, the other half too young to get it yet. So take your antivax finger wagging and wag it elsewhere.

The vaccines whilst reduce severity do sweet little in preventing transmission, the tons of cases we're currently seeing is testament to that. Yes, omicron is more spreadable and way less at causing illness, thankfully. Vaxxing kids for this is not necessary in the main.

astrofool · 27-12-2021 2:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118377643#Comment_118377643

Your "sweet little" comment is wrong though, SARS-COV2 is highly transmissible, vaccines reduce that transmission significantly (one of the reasons we had R down at 1 for so long), however with a very high R0, significant reduction can still mean high transmission rates (especially with high numbers in the community).

I don't doubt however that you'll keep on spouting this everywhere in your usual angry fashion and calling for us to let it rip ad nauseum.

Bass Reeves · 27-12-2021 2:39pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118377643#Comment_118377643

Again incorrect.even thought you say you are vaccinated you thinking and your beliefs are totally anti vaccination. Considering where we were last Christmas to this one proves the vaccines work. We can live with higher rates of the disease in the community. Along with that for those that are vaccinated symptoms are very mild and a short event, 24-48 hour high temp, a slight cough and/or a runny nose. Many are not getting tested with these symptoms or isolating when they have them. More are asymptomatic and have no tell take signs.

The disease in the unvaccinated is still an issue as this is where the main risk of hospitalisation and ICU cases are coming from

mcsean2163 · 28-12-2021 12:39am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118374743#Comment_118374743

Would vaccinate suggests you have no kids over 5 that can be vaccinated. Is that correct?

Cluedo Monopoly · 28-12-2021 12:44pm

Registrations for 5-12 year olds has opened. Very interesting to see the % that take it up. My prediction now would be < 30%. Omicron being so mild and contagious could be a major factor. Many parents may want to see how that plays out before committing. There is still distrust after the swine flu debacle.

shesty · 28-12-2021 12:58pm

My 7 year old currently has covid.

Wonder does that mean she won't get a vaccine for now (I am still on the fence about them)

Cluedo Monopoly · 28-12-2021 1:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118381333#Comment_118381333

According to HSE website...

If your child has had COVID-19, they can be vaccinated from 4 weeks after they first developed symptoms or from their positive COVID-19 test.

If they had the virus in the last 9 months, they will have some immunity to the virus. But getting the vaccine should reduce the risk of them getting COVID-19 again.

Deciding on COVID-19 vaccination for children - HSE.ie

shesty · 28-12-2021 1:27pm

Interesting that it is 4 weeks for kids, but...3 months is it now, for adults??

Cluedo Monopoly · 28-12-2021 1:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118381452#Comment_118381452

Yes its 3 months for an adult. 3 months after a positive test result.

If it were my child I would also be waiting at least 3 months after getting natural immunity.

shesty · 28-12-2021 1:35pm

On balance, I think I agree.Mind you it could be almost that long by the time they get to her anyway.

Cluedo Monopoly · 28-12-2021 1:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118381490#Comment_118381490

It really depends on when you register her. If you don't register, she cannot get called.

No point in registering her for 3-4 weeks if she wont be eligible due to having already got covid. It's completely up to you.

MTU · 28-12-2021 11:27pm

Why vaccinate a healthy child bonkers.

Would you be happy for your children to receive covid-19 vaccine

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